An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

农牧交错带典型偏农区土地利用变化及其原因分析——以奈曼旗尧勒甸子村为例

中国北方农牧交错带东部农业以种植业为主。土地利用变化对农业的可持续发展具有深刻的影响。尧勒甸子村是农牧交错带典型的偏农区,50a来土地利用发生很大变化。其变化表现出明显的阶段性,20世纪80年代前后明显不同。本文主要分析了农业用地和沙漠化土地的变化,并从国家政策、土地产权制度、人口、牲畜、系统结构等方面的变化探讨了其土地利用变化的原因。     

30 m global impervious surface area dynamics and urban expansion pattern observed by Landsat satellites: From 1972 to 2019

Using more than three million Landsat satellite images, this research developed the first global impervious surface area (GISA) dataset from 1972 to 2019. Based on 120,777 independent and random reference sites from 270 cities all over the world, the omission error, commission error, and F-score of GISA are 5.16%, 0.82%, and 0.954, respectively. Compared to the existing global datasets, the merits of GISA include: (1) It provided the global ISA maps before the year of 1985, and showed the longest time span (1972–2019) and the highest accuracy (in terms of a large number of randomly selected and third-party validation sample sets); (2) it presented a new global ISA mapping method including a semi-automatic global sample collection, a locally adaptive classification strategy, and a spatio-temporal post-processing procedure; and (3) it extracted ISA from the whole global land area (not from an urban mask) and hence reduced the underestimation. Moreover, on the basis of GISA, the long time series global urban expansion pattern (GUEP) has been calculated for the first time, and the pattern of continents and representative countries were analyzed. The two new datasets (GISA and GUEP) produced in this study can contribute to further understanding on the human’s utilization and reformation to nature during the past half century, and can be freely download from http://irsip.whu.edu.cn/resources/dataweb.php.

     

基于ICESat/GLAS高度计数据的SRTM数据精度评估——以青藏高原地区为例

为全面了解航天飞机雷达测图计划(shuttle Radar topography mission,SRTM)高程数据的精度及误差特征,利用精度更高的ICESat/GLAS激光高度计数据(简称ICESat高度计数据)为参照数据,以具有多种地貌类型的中国青藏高原地区为实验区,采用双线性插值算法分析了SRTM在中国青藏高原地区的高程精度,以及SRTM高程数据与地形因子(坡度和坡向)间的关系。实验结果表明:在青藏高原地区,ICESat高度计数据与相对应的SRTM高程数据高度相关,相关系数高达0.999 8;SRTM的系统误差为2.36±16.48 m,中误差(RMSE)为16.65 m;当坡度低于25°时,SRTM高程数据精度随坡度增大而显著降低。此外,相对于ICESat高度计数据,SRTM在青藏高原地区N,NW和NE方向的测量值偏高,在S,SE和SW方向的测量值偏低。     

Wavelet analysis and interpretation of gravity data in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China

Introduction Sichuan-Yunnan region, located in the east margin of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetean) Plateau, is a transitional zone between the rapidly upheaving Tibetean Plateau and relatively steady Yangtze Platform. Under the pressure exerted by the northward movement of Indian Plate, Sichuan-Yunnan region has been undergone strong deformation and regmagenesis, becoming one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in the world. The research on the tectonics and seismicity there is alw…     

From sequential to parallel growth of cities: Theory and evidence from Canada

This paper examines city growth patterns and the corresponding city size distribution evolution over long periods of time using a simple New Economic Geography(NEG) model and urban population data from Canada. The main findings are twofold. First, there is a transition from sequential to parallel growth of cities over long periods of time: city growth shows a sequential mode in the stage of rapid urbanization, i.e., the cities with the best development conditions will take the lead in growth, after which the cities with higher ranks will become the fastest-growing cities; in the late stage of urbanization, city growth converges according to Gibrat′s law, and exhibits a parallel growth pattern. Second, city size distribution is found to have persistent structural characteristics: the city system is self-organized into multiple discrete size groups; city growth shows club convergence characteristics, and the cities with similar development conditions eventually converge to a similar size. The results will not only enhance our understanding of urbanization process, but will also provide a timely and clear policy reference for promoting the healthy urbanization of developing countries.     

腐蚀管道在内压和轴向压力影响下的弯曲破坏

运行在恶劣环境中的海底管道,往往受到内压、轴力和弯矩等复杂荷载的联合作用。腐蚀会导致管壁局部变薄,降低管道极限承载力。为保证管道安全高效运行,准确预测和分析复杂荷载作用下的塑性极限承载力和变形行为就显得尤为重要。考虑大应变和大变形、应力强化和材料非线性,运用数值仿真软件建立腐蚀缺陷管道的三维实体有限元模型,在全尺寸管道破坏试验验证的基础上,对腐蚀管道在内压、轴向压力和弯矩相互作用下的失效模式和极限弯矩承载力进行了相关研究,并进行了腐蚀缺陷几何参数的敏感性分析。研究结果表明:初始内压和初始轴向压力会显著降低腐蚀管道的极限弯矩承载力,并且影响最终的失效模式;在腐蚀缺陷几何尺寸参数中,腐蚀宽度比腐蚀深度和腐蚀长度的影响更大。     

目标样本粒度判据在海湾环境演变研究中的运用——以福建前湖湾为例

高密度采集福建前湖湾海岸剖面133个泥沙样品做粒度分析,其频率曲线显示多种粒度分布特征,预示多种沉积环境的变化。采集研究剖面周边海滩、河口浅滩、河口、滨海沼泽和海岸沙丘等已知环境的样品作为目标样本。将目标样本沉积参数平均粒径(Mz)、标准偏差(σ)、峰态(Kg)设为判别参数,利用Excel计算海岸剖面样品与目标样本参数的距离,筛选最小距离样品,归为已知目标样本的同类。据此,分析了海岸剖面蕴含的6个沉积环境变化阶段。利用剖面底部淤泥测年14C=(328 15±170)a BP,和剖面上部泥炭测年14C=(24 130±100)a BP,了解这一变化发生的年代。自(32 815±170)a BP以来,前湖湾经历了河口浅滩-河口、沙丘-河口-滨海沼泽-海滩-沙丘等海岸环境演变过程。     

Pathogens and pathogenicity to Penaeus orientalis Kishinouye

ＰａｔｈｏｇｅｎｓａｎｄｐａｔｈｏｇｅｎｉｃｉｔｙｔｏＰｅｎａｅｕｓｏｒｉｅｎｔａｌｉｓＫｉｓｈｉｎｏｕｙｅＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＢａｃｔｅｒｉａ，ｅｓｐｅｃｉａｌｌｙｖｉｂｒｉｏｓａｒｅｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｍａｊｏｒｐａｔｈｏｇｅｎｓｔｏｃｕｌｔｕｒ...     

长江口及邻近海区营养盐结构与限制

通过研究长江口及邻近海域溶解无机氮(DIN=NO₃-+NO₂-+NH₄+)、磷酸盐(PO₄3-)、硅酸盐(SiO₃2-)所表征的营养盐区域结构特征及影响因素,在分析营养盐绝对限制情况的基础上,划分了潜在相对营养限制区域。结果表明,123°E以西近岸表层区域DIN/P比值全年均高于16,而Si/DIN除秋季外基本小于1,显示出长江冲淡水影响下"过量氮"的特征。春夏季河口锋面区(31°~32.5°N,122.5°~124°E)硅藻的大量生长可使DIN/P异常升高和Si/DIN异常降低。秋季研究区域北部DIN/P西低东高且Si/DIN西高东低是由于在高DIN、低PO₄3-的长江冲淡水影响下,近岸受相对低DIN、高SiO₃2-的苏北沿岸流南下入侵影响而被分割而成。冬季长江口门东北部存在的高DIN/P和低Si/DIN区则主要由于寡营养盐的黑潮水深入陆架,向东北输送的部分长江冲淡水和增强的苏北沿岸流共同作用造成DIN升高所致。利用Redfield比值进行了不同站位表层潜在相对营养限制情况的区分。近岸123°E以西受高DIN、SiO₃2-长江冲淡水影响,四季多呈现PO₄3-潜在相对限制,而在春夏季由于浮游植物的大量吸收PO₄3-,造成局部PO₄3-绝对限制及潜在相对限制。春夏季氮限(DIN潜在相对限制)一般发生在外海部分站位,但较为零散。秋季除了东南外海大部分站位外,受苏北沿岸流影响在长江口北部近岸也存在氮限。随着低DIN/P的黑潮表层水(KSW)的入侵加强,冬季外海氮限站位增多。硅限(SiO₃2-潜在相对限制)在夏季发生在赤潮高发区,而冬季南部存在较多硅限站位表明KSW中SiO₃2-相对较为缺乏。