Regression models for daily stream temperature simulation: case studies for the river Elbe,Germany

Daily stream temperatures are needed in a number of analyses. Such analyses might focus on aquatic organisms or industrial activities. To protect aquatic systems, industrial activities, for example, water withdrawals or discharges, are sometimes restricted. To evaluate where new industrial settings should be placed or if climate change will affect already existing industrial settings, the simulation of stream temperature is needed. Stream temperature models with weekly or monthly time scale might not be sufficient for this kind of analysis. Different regression models to simulate daily stream temperature for the river Elbe (Germany) are developed and their performance is estimated. For the calibration period the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) for the simplest model is 0·97, and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 1·48 °C. For the most sophisticated model the NSC also is 0·97. However, the RMSE is 1·32 °C. For the validation period the NSC for the simplest model is 0·96, and the RMSE is 1·45 °C. The NSC for the most sophisticated model is 0·97, and the RMSE is 1·25 °C. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of the 7 March, 1970 total solar eclipse at wavelengths of 3.2 and 8.3 mm

The 7 March, 1970 total solar eclipse was observed at wavelengths of 3.2 and 8.3 mm; the object being to use the knife edge of the Moon as it passed across the Sun to improve angular resolution on the Sun. This in turn would provide a radial brightness distribution of the Sun with an angular resolution of a few seconds of arc.Excellent eclipse curves were obtained at 3 mm; however, some external interference marred the 8 mm record near totality.The 8 mm brightness distribution is subject to some uncertainty, but tends to show limb brightening. The 3 mm brightness distribution shows a well defined complex limb brightening within about 1 arc min of the optical limb. The maximum brightening is approximately 30% above the average disc temperature.     

Persistence of clear-water,shallow-lake ecosystems: the role of protected areas and stable aquatic food webs

The roles of both landscape alteration and in-lake processes need to be considered in conservation strategies for shallow lakes in the prairie regions of North America. Here we focus on shallow lakes in west-central Minnesota, USA, highlighting the long-term ecological history and response to known landscape changes of a clear-water, macrophyte-dominated, shallow lake. Contemporary limnological data suggest the aquatic ecosystem has been very stable and fishless for the last ~15 years. Sediment proxies for primary production and ecological change confirm that a stable ecosystem likely prevailed for the last ~200 years. However, sedimentary indicators of catchment erosion detail a distinct response to land-use change during the conversion of native grassland to agricultural land, and following establishment of a protected waterfowl production area (WPA) around the lake. Post-WPA, the rate of sediment accrual decreased dramatically within 5–10 years and sources of organic matter were similar to those of the pre-settlement period. The aquatic ecosystem has been able to withstand nutrient enrichment and allochthonous inputs because stable trophic interactions have likely been in place for more than 200 years. We conclude that lack of hydrologic connectivity and isolated, small catchments are important factors in the promotion of clear-water shallow lake ecosystems, mainly because they prevent colonization by fish and associated ecological consequences. This study highlights the importance of managing both the landscape and in-lake processes to maintain stable, clear-water, shallow lakes.     

Diversity,composition and host-species relationships of epiphytic orchids and ferns in two forests in Nepal

Epiphytic plant species are an important part of biological diversity. It is therefore essential to understand the distribution pattern and the factors influencing such patterns. The present study is aimed at observing the patterns of species richness, abundances and species composition of epiphytic orchids and ferns in two subtropical forests in Nepal. We also studied the relationship of host plants (Schima wallichii and Quercus lanata) and epiphyte species. Data were collected in Naudhara community forest (CF) and the national forest (NF) in Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park. The data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate tests. In total, we recorded 41 species of epiphytes (33 orchid and 8 fern species). Orchid species abundance is significantly higher in CF compared to NF. Orchid species richness and abundance increased with increasing southern aspect whereas it decreased with increasing canopy cover, and fern species richness increased with host bark roughness. Orchid abundance was positively correlated with increasing bark pH, stem size, tree age and tree height and negatively correlated with increasing steepness of the area. Likewise, fern abundances were high in places with high canopy cover, trees that were tall and big, but decreased with increasing altitude and southern aspect. The composition of the orchid and fern species was affected by altitude, aspect, canopy cover, DBH, number of forks and forest management types. We showed that the diversity of orchid and fern epiphytes is influenced by host characteristics as well as host types. The most important pre-requisite for a high epiphyte biodiversity is the presence of old respectively tall trees, independent of the recent protection status. This means: (i) for protection, e.g. in the frame of the national park declaration, such areas should be used which host such old tall trees; and (ii) also in managed forests and even in intensively used landscapes epiphytes can be protected by letting a certain number of trees be and by giving them space to grow old and tall.     

Adaptive Zoning for Transport Mode Choice Modeling

Adaptive zoning is a recently introduced method for improving computer modeling of spatial interactions and movements in the transport network. Unlike traditional zoning, where geographic locations are defined by one single universal plan of discrete land parcels or ‘zones’ for the study area, adaptive zoning establishes a compendium of different zone plans, each of which is applicable to one journey origin or destination only. These adaptive zone plans are structured to represent strong spatial interactions in proportionately more detail than weaker ones. In recent articles, it has been shown that adaptive zoning improves, by a large margin, the scalability of models of spatial interaction and road traffic assignment. This article confronts the method of adaptive zoning with an application of the scale and complexity for which it was intended, namely an application of mode choice modeling that at the same time requires a large study area and a fine‐grained zone system. Our hypothesis is that adaptive zoning can significantly improve the accuracy of mode choice modeling because of its enhanced sensitivity to the geographic patterns and scales of spatial interaction. We test the hypothesis by investigating the performance of three alternative models: (1) a spatially highly detailed model that is permissible to the maximum extent by available data, but requires a high computational load that is generally out of reach for rapid turnaround of policy studies; (2) a mode choice model for the same area, but reducing the computational load by 90% by using a traditional zone system consisting of fewer zones; and (3) a mode choice model that also reduces the computational load by 90%, but based on adaptive zoning instead. The tests are carried out on the basis of a case study that uses the dataset from the London Area Transport Survey. Using the first model as a benchmark, it is found that for a given computational load, the model based on adaptive zoning contains about twice the amount of information of the traditional model, and model parameters on adaptive zoning principles are more accurate by a factor of six to eight. The findings suggest that adaptive zoning has a significant potential in enhancing the accuracy of mode choice modeling at the city or city‐region scale.