Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance studies of the fixed stress split algorithm for immiscible two-phase flow coupled with linear poromechanics

In this work, we measure the performance of the fixed stress split algorithm for the immiscible water-oil flow coupled with linear poromechanics. The two-phase flow equations are solved on general hexahedral elements using the multipoint flux mixed finite element method whereas the poromechanics equations are discretized using the conforming Galerkin method. We introduce a rigorous calculation of the update in poroelastic properties during the iterative solution of the coupled system equations. The effects of the coupling parameter on the performance of the fixed stress algorithm is demonstrated in two field studies: the Frio oil reservoir and the Cranfield injection site.

     

Embedding eco-friendly and smart technology features in affordable housing for community happiness in Malaysia

GeoJournal - Two phases of study are involved in this research: first, the sales strategies for affordable houses embedded with eco-friendly and smart technology features; and second, the impact of...     

Estimation of sediment load and erosion of different geological units: A case study from a basin of north-eastern Iran

Erosion of geological units and sediment load in rivers can be considered as the serious problems in recent decades.Increasing sediment loads generate major hazards for water resources development,particularly in terms of loss of reservoir storage due to sedimentation and siltation of water distribution systems.In this paper,the performance of four sediment rating curve (SRC) development methods was evaluated for the Shirin Darreh River(SDR) basin (1750 km2),located in North Khorasan Province,Iran.Data of flow discharge (Q) and suspended sediment flux (SSF)(Q-SSF pairs,N=957)and daily flow discharge,recorded by the Regional Water Company of North Khorasan (RWCNK) at the Qaleh-Barbar (QB) gauging site during 1989-2018were used.The flow discharge classification method performed best by meeting the desired criteria of most statistical indices,including normalized root mean square error (NRMSE),mean bias error (MBE),mean absolute error (MAE),index of agreement (d),and coefficient of determination (R~2).Based on the optimized method,the rate of suspended sediment transportation at the study site was estimated about2.7×10~6 ton year~(-1).Erodibility of the exposed formations in the study area was estimated based on a factorial scoring model (FSM).Three indices,focused on the outcrop and erodibility,were calculated for the geological units at sub-basin and total scales.Marl deposits are the most extensive geological unit in the three sub-basins and the maximum formation outcrop ratio (FOR) and participation in erosion (PCE)were obtained for these rocks at total scale.In fact,marl unit can be regarded as the main source to supply the suspended sediments in the study basin.     

Estimation of air-overpressure produced by blasting operation through a neuro-genetic technique

Blasting operations usually produce significant environmental problems which may cause severe damage to the nearby areas. Air-overpressure (AOp) is one of the most important environmental impacts of blasting operations which needs to be predicted and subsequently controlled to minimize the potential risk of damage. In order to solve AOp problem in Hulu Langat granite quarry site, Malaysia, three non-linear methods namely empirical, artificial neural network (ANN) and a hybrid model of genetic algorithm (GA)–ANN were developed in this study. To do this, 76 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured in the site. The most influential parameters on AOp namely maximum charge per delay and the distance from the blast-face were considered as model inputs or predictors. Using the five randomly selected datasets and considering the modeling procedure of each method, 15 models were constructed for all predictive techniques. Several performance indices including coefficient of determination (R ²), root mean square error and variance account for were utilized to check the performance capacity of the predictive methods. Considering these performance indices and using simple ranking method, the best models for AOp prediction were selected. It was found that the GA–ANN technique can provide higher performance capacity in predicting AOp compared to other predictive methods. This is due to the fact that the GA–ANN model can optimize the weights and biases of the network connection for training by ANN. In this study, GA–ANN is introduced as superior model for solving AOp problem in Hulu Langat site.     

Resonance Caused by the Luni-Solar Attractions on a Satellite of the Oblate Earth

The present work deals with constructing a conditionally periodic solution for the motion of an Earth satellite taking into consideration the oblateness of the Earth and the Luni-Solar attractions. The oblatenessof the Earth is truncated beyond the second zonal harmonic J ₂. The resonance resulting from the commensurability between the mean motions of the satellite, the Moon, and the Sun is analyzed.     

Engaging indigenous people as geo-crowdsourcing sensors for ecotourism mapping via mobile data collection: a case study of the Royal Belum State Park

ABSTRACT

Web 2.0 and the proliferation of built-in Global Positioning System (GPS) on smartphones have influenced the increase of geo-crowdsourcing activities in a number of different contexts. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of indigenous people’s use of mobile collection applications that are embedded in a smartphone to facilitate ecotourism asset mapping. In order to achieve this, field usability testing was conducted where structured observational method was used to assess the performance. The findings indicate majority of them can complete the data entry tasks using mobile data collection. The performance of data entries using radio button, icons, camera and audio methods were identified as better than free text and drop-down list methods. There was a correlation between the level of education with the ability of using radio button, drop-down list and image icon as data entry methods. The paper also discusses the extent of local knowledge relating to ecotourism within the community. The findings should be useful in the understanding of the design of mobile geo-crowdsourcing tools for use within other contexts that focus on data collection by semiliterate and indigenous groups.     

Evaluation of statistical tropospheric scintillation models using SUPERBIRD-C satellite for Malaysia

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate and compare some of the statistical tropospheric scintillation models for one-year data (1999–2000) measured using SUPERBIRD-C satellite in Tronoh, Malaysia. Eight statistical models of monthly mean scintillation intensity are briefly reviewed and their predictions compared with measurements. Results are discussed in order to understand the potentials and the limits of each prediction model within this case study. In the context of our measurements, the Karasawa and Ortgies-T models have the best overall performance. The agreement with satellite measurements is found to be mainly dependent on the parameterization of prediction models to the radiometeorological variables along the earth-space path.     

A probabilistic model to improve reconciliation of estimated and actual grade in open-pit mining

Many of the open-pit mines suffer from the lack of reconciliation between estimated and actual grades. In a mining operation, grade reconciliation is the comparison between the values of the estimated grade calculated in exploration stage and the actual grade obtained from more reliable data such as blast holes?? samples. Many different factors affect the degree of reconciliation in a mining operation. In this paper, the factors related to estimated grade which affect the reconciliation process in the exploration stage of the orebody are investigated. These factors constitute the sources of uncertainty for the upcoming phases of the mining life. Among these parameters, the inherent variability, statistical uncertainty, and systematic uncertainty are the most important factors. In this work, these parameters are studied in further detail, and, accordingly, for each of these uncertainties, a correction factor is determined in the proposed model. The model was applied to the study of real data taken from an iron open-pit mine in Iran. The results of the case study indicated that the systematic uncertainty, inherent variability, and statistical uncertainty are, in order, the main sources of uncertainty on grade reconciliation process. Applying the correction factors to estimated grade values has increased the amount of grade reconciliation from 10%, at original condition, to 50%, at new condition, in the case study.     

Sources of sedimentary PAHs in tropical Asian waters: Differentiation between pyrogenic and petrogenic sources by alkyl homolog abundance

We collected surface sediment samples from 174 locations in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and the Philippines and analyzed them for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hopanes. PAHs were widely distributed in the sediments, with comparatively higher concentrations in urban areas (∑PAHs: ∼1000 to ∼100 000 ng/g-dry) than in rural areas (∼10 to ∼100 g-dry), indicating large sources of PAHs in urban areas. To distinguish petrogenic and pyrogenic sources of PAHs, we calculated the ratios of alkyl PAHs to parent PAHs: methylphenanthrenes to phenanthrene (MP/P), methylpyrenes + methylfluoranthenes to pyrene + fluoranthene (MPy/Py), and methylchrysenes + methylbenz[a]anthracenes to chrysene + benz[a]anthracene (MC/C). Analysis of source materials (crude oil, automobile exhaust, and coal and wood combustion products) gave thresholds of MP/P = 0.4, MPy/Py = 0.5, and MC/C = 1.0 for exclusive combustion origin. All the combustion product samples had the ratios of alkyl PAHs to parent PAHs below these threshold values. Contributions of petrogenic and pyrogenic sources to the sedimentary PAHs were uneven among the homologs: the phenanthrene series had a greater petrogenic contribution, whereas the chrysene series had a greater pyrogenic contribution. All the Indian sediments showed a strong pyrogenic signature with MP/P ≈ 0.5, MPy/Py ≈ 0.1, and MC/C ≈ 0.2, together with depletion of hopanes indicating intensive inputs of combustion products of coal and/or wood, probably due to the heavy dependence on these fuels as sources of energy. In contrast, sedimentary PAHs from all other tropical Asian cities were abundant in alkylated PAHs with MP/P ≈ 1-4, MPy/Py ≈ 0.3-1, and MC/C ≈ 0.2-1.0, suggesting a ubiquitous input of petrogenic PAHs. Petrogenic contributions to PAH homologs varied among the countries: largest in Malaysia whereas inferior in Laos. The higher abundance of alkylated PAHs together with constant hopane profiles suggests widespread inputs of automobile-derived petrogenic PAHs to Asian waters.