Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region,Turkey

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper includes a study which applied homogeneity and trend tests on time series of monthly mean temperature and monthly total rainfall recorded in the...     

Clustering current climate regions of Turkey by using a multivariate statistical method

In this study, the hierarchical clustering technique, called Ward method, was applied for grouping common features of air temperature series, precipitation total and relative humidity series of 244 stations in Turkey. Results of clustering exhibited the impact of physical geographical features of Turkey, such as topography, orography, land–sea distribution and the high Anatolian peninsula on the geographical variability. Based on the monthly series of nine climatological observations recorded for the period of 1970–2010, 12 and 14 clusters of climate zones are determined. However, from the comparative analyses, it is decided that 14 clusters represent the climate of Turkey more realistically. These clusters are named as (1) Dry Summer Subtropical Semihumid Coastal Aegean Region; (2) Dry-Subhumid Mid-Western Anatolia Region; (3 and 4) Dry Summer Subtropical Humid Coastal Mediterranean region [(3) West coast Mediterranean and (4) Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions]; (5) Semihumid Eastern Marmara Transition Sub-region; (6) Dry Summer Subtropical Semihumid/Semiarid Continental Mediterranean region; (7) Semihumid Cold Continental Eastern Anatolia region; (8) Dry-subhumid/Semiarid Continental Central Anatolia Region; (9 and 10) Mid-latitude Humid Temperate Coastal Black Sea Region [(9) West Coast Black Sea and (10) East Coast Black Sea sub-regions]; (11) Semihumid Western Marmara Transition Sub-region; (12) Semihumid Continental Central to Eastern Anatolia Sub-region; (13) Rainy Summer Semihumid Cold Continental Northeastern Anatolia Sub-region; and (14) Semihumid Continental Mediterranean to Eastern Anatolia Transition Sub-region. We believe that this study can be considered as a reference for the other climate-related researches of Turkey, and can be useful for the detection of Turkish climate regions, which are obtained by a long-term time course dataset having many meteorological variables.     

Numerical Modelling of Steep Slopes in Open Rock Quarries

The key question regarding steep rock slopes along rock quarries is their stability because a rock slope failure can have critical results. In this study, the aim is to investigate the areas with potential risk for jointed karstic limestones in a rock quarry. First, to determine rock mass properties, scan-line surveys were performed, and the major orientations of discontinuities were analyzed using stereographic projection. Then, the physicomechanical properties of the slope-forming rock were determined in the laboratory, and geomechanical properties of the rock mass were determined using an empirical failure criterion. Finally, the quarry slope stability was assessed in accordance with numerical modelling. According to the results obtained, the numerical modelling of steep rock slopes can be efficiently evaluated by using finite element method. Beside this, the presence of joints intersecting the main discontinuity sets, the filling materials of discontinuities resulting from weathering of limestone and surface deposits, surcharge load due to mine waste dumped on the slopes and excavation blasting during construction of quarry area play a key role when modelling the steep rock slopes by using finite element method.     

Investigation of Soil Conditioning Tests with Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling

Due to the diverse and complex structure of soil and the variety of foam-modifier materials that are used, it is difficult to provide a model to predict the laboratory behavior of modified soils. For example, several studies have shown independently that the amount of the foam-modified soil depends on several factors, such as the internal friction angle and normal stiffness. Of late, modeling by numerical methods has become popular in engineering sciences and the modeling of complex material behavior is possible with the help of numerical methods. In this research, the performance and efficiency of the numerical method in the modeling of laboratory tests such as the slump test and the uniaxial compressive strength test were investigated and it was found that numerical modeling performs very well in predicting the results of these tests for foam-modified sand samples. In order to achieve this goal, the slump test and the uniaxial compressive strength test were performed in the laboratory on several modified sand samples in order to obtain the laboratory results for these samples. Then, numerical simulation of these experiments was carried out using PFC^3D software. The results of numerical modeling were compared with the experimental results, and good agreement was observed. Finally, after calibration of the numerical model using the experimental results, the effect of changes in the internal friction angle and the normal stiffness of the modified sand in the amount of the slump was investigated. According to the results of this sensitivity analysis, it was determined that by increasing both effective parameters the amount of the slump of foam-modified sand decreases and that the parameters are the most important factors in controlling the slump value.     

Fault rupture and stress changes associated with the November 27, 2005 Qeshm Island (Iran) earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 6.0)

The November 27, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake (M_w 6.0) occurred along the Zagros Thrust and Fold Belt which accommodates about half of the deformation caused by the Arabian and Eurasian Plates convergence. As typical for the belt, the earthquake was associated with buried reverse faulting and produced no surface rupture. Here, teleseismic broadband P velocity waveforms of the earthquake are inverted to obtain coseismic finite-fault slip distribution of the earthquake. It is obtained that rupture was controlled by failure of a single asperity with largest displacement of approximately 0.6 m, which occurred at a depth of 9 km. The slip model indicated radial rupture propagation from the hypocentre and confirmed blind reverse faulting within deeper part (below the depth of 6 km) of the sedimentary cover above the Hormuz Salt, lying between the cover and the basement, releasing a seismic moment of about 1.3?×?10¹⁸ Nm (M_W?=?6.0). The results also confirm that the Hormuz Salt behaves as a barrier for rupture propagation to the basement below and occurrence of the aftershock activity downdip from the rupture within the Hormuz Salt. Calculated Coulomb stress variations caused by the coseismic rupture indicates stress coupling between the 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake and both the largest aftershock several hours later and the 2008 Qeshm Island earthquake (M_W?=?5.9). The stress calculations further indicated stress load at the depth range (15–20 km) of the well-located aftershocks, corresponding to depths of the Hormuz Salt and top of the basement and providing plausible explanation for occurrence of the aftershocks within those layers.     

Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin

Abstract

Among the processes most affected by global warming are the hydrological cycle and water resources. Regions where the majority of runoff consists of snowmelt are very sensitive to climate change. It is significant to express the relationship between climate change and snow hydrology and it is imperative to perform climate change impact studies on snow hydrology at global and regional scales. Climate change impacts on the mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin were investigated in this paper. First, historical data trend analysis of significant hydro-meteorological data is presented. Available future climate data are then explained, and, finally, future climate data are used in hydrological models, which are calibrated and validated using historical hydro-meteorological data, and future streamflow is projected for the period 2070–2100. The hydrological model outcomes indicate substantial runoff decreases in summer and spring season runoff, which will have significant consequences on water sectors in the Euphrates Basin.

Citation Yilmaz, A.G. & Imteaz, M.A. (2011) Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1265–1279.     

Relevance of building site categories implementation into the land use plan in underground mining area in the region of Petrvald (Czech Republic)

Deep mining of mineral resources causes extensive changes in rock environment and ground morphology and must be considered in the land use planning. Subsidence as a result of underground mining activities in terrains is one of the serious geological hazards because they can effect slopes and damage engineering structures, settlement areas, natural lakes and allow infiltration of contaminant into the groundwater. The main aim of this article was implementation of the building site categories of underground mining regions into the land use plans. This case study area was selected from the region of Orlova town within the Ostrava-Karvina Coal district, and this region is one of the most affected areas by underground mining of black coal in the Czech Republic. Certain risk categories of land, where the individual categories express generalized influence of deep mining of coal in current and planned constructions were also represented in this article. Extensive variations caused by underground mining were identified within a wide variability of risk categories. An important finding was also the extensive variability over time, manifested by spatial variations in the stated categories in the studied time periods. Moreover, technical documentation of environmental impacts related to underground mining activities was provided; importance of existing and proposed underground mining projects that may significantly impact the land use was discussed and pointed out in this article, especially.     

Analyzing radar rainfall estimate errors with three vector norms: application to weather radar rainfall data in Muğla,Turkey

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Over the past several decades, weather radar has become an indispensable tool in flood forecasting studies, especially in ungauged regions. However, the...     

23 October 2011 Van, Eastern Anatolia, earthquake (M W 7.1) and seismotectonics of Lake Van area

The 23 October 2011 Van earthquake took place in the NE part of Lake Van area, surprisingly on a fault (the Van fault) that is not present in the current active fault map of Turkey. However, occurrence of such a large magnitude earthquake in the area is not surprising regarding the historical seismicity of the region. The comparison of the damage patterns suggests that the earthquake is much likely a recurrence of the 1715 Van earthquake. The finite fault modelling of the earthquake using teleseismic broadband body waveforms has shown that the earthquake rupture was unilateral toward SW, was mostly reverse faulting, confined to below the depth of 5 km, did not propagate offshore, and was dominated by a failure of a single asperity with a peak slip of about 5.5 m. The total seismic moment calculated for the model is 4.6?×?10¹⁹ Nm (M _W ?≈?7.1). The finite fault model coincides with the field observations indicating blind faulting and the vertical displacements over the free surface estimated from it correlate well with the maximum reported uplift along the coast of Lake Van above the hanging wall. The possible offshore continuations of the Van fault and some other faults lying its south are also discussed by assessing a previous offshore seismic reflection study and the earthquake epicentres and focal mechanisms.