Development of statistical prediction models for Changma precipitation: An ensemble approach

An ensemble statistical forecast scheme with a one-month lead is developed to predict year-to-year variations of Changma rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Spring sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the tropical Pacific Ocean have been proposed as useful predictors in a previous study. Through a forward-stepwise regression method, four additional springtime predictors are selected: the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) SST, the North Atlantic SST change (NAC), the snow cover anomaly over the Eurasian continent (EUSC), and the western North Pacific outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (WNP (OLR)). Using these, three new prediction models are developed. A simple arithmetic ensemble mean produces much improved forecast skills compared to the original prediction model of Lee and Seo (2013). Skill scores measured by temporal correlation and MSSS (mean square error skill score) are improved by about 9% and 17%, respectively. The GMSS (Gerrity skill score) and hit rate based on a tercile prediction validation scheme are also enhanced by about 19% and 13%, respectively. The reversed NIO, reversed WNP (OLR), and reversed NAC are all related to the enhancement of a cyclonic circulation anomaly to the south or southwest of the Korean peninsula, which induces southeasterly moisture flux into the peninsula and increasing Changma precipitation. The EUSC predictor induces an enhancement of the Okhotsk Sea high downstream and thus strengthening of Changma front.     

Micromechanical Modelling of the Complete Stress–Strain Relationship for Crack Weakened Rock Subjected to Compressive Loading

Summary  A micromechanics-based model, able to quantify the effect of various parameters on the complete stress–strain relationship, is described. The closed-form explicit expression for the complete stress–strain relationship of a rock material containing an echelon cracks arrangement subjected to compressive loading is obtained. The complete stress–strain relationship including the stages of linear elasticity, non-linear hardening and strain softening is established. The results show that the complete stress–strain relationship and the strength of rock with echelon cracks depend on the crack interface friction coefficient, the sliding crack spacing, the perpendicular distance between the two adjacent rows, the fracture toughness of rock material and orientation of the cracks. The present model is used to evaluate the complete stress–strain relationship and strength for crack-weakened rock at the underground cavern complex of the Ertan Hydroelectric Project. The predicted strength is in agreement with that obtained by the Hoek–Brown criterion. The numerical results obtained with the complete stress–strain relationship seem to be in good agreement with the measured values. Author’s address: Xiao-Ping Zhou, School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, 443002 Chongqing, P.R. China     

Simulation of mixed-mode fracture using SPH particles with an embedded fracture process zone

This paper focuses on the modelling of mixed-mode fracture using the conventional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method and a mixed-mode cohesive fracture law embedded in the particles. The combination of conventional SPH and a mixed-mode cohesive model allows capturing fracture and separation under various loading conditions efficiently. The key advantage of this framework is its capability to represent complex fracture geometries by a set of cracked SPH particles, each of which can possess its own mixed-mode cohesive fracture with arbitrary orientations. Therefore, this can naturally capture complex fracture patterns without any predefined fracture topologies. Because a characteristic length scale related to the size of the fracture process zone is incorporated in the constitutive formulation, the proposed approach is independent from the spatial discretisation of the computational domain (or mesh independent). Furthermore, the anisotropic fracture responses of materials can be naturally captured thanks to the orientation of the fracture process zone embedded at the particle level. The performance of the proposed approach demonstrates its potentials in modelling mixed-mode fracture of rocks and similar quasi-brittle materials.     

Groundwater responses to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on Jeju Island,Korea

Groundwater responses at 15 monitoring wells on Jeju Island were observed in relation to the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake off the Pacific coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011, at 14:46:23 h local time (05:46:24 h UTC time). In coastal areas, the groundwater level responses to the earthquake were oscillatory at 12 wells, and the range of the maximum groundwater level changes was 3–192.4 cm. The response durations were approximately 1–62 min. The relationship between the maximum groundwater level changes and the response durations displayed a high correlation coefficient (r = 0.81). Groundwater temperature changes were also observed at 7 of 12 wells 3–10 min after the seismic wave arrived, and the range was from 0.01 °C to 1.20 °C. In mid‐elevation areas, the groundwater level changes appeared in three different forms: oscillatory, spiky and persistent. The groundwater temperature changes were also observed at two wells. One indicated decreasing and recovering temperatures, and the other exhibited rising and persistent temperatures. The primary temperature changes occurred 5–6 min after the earthquake and 2–3 min after the seismic wave arrived. In addition, the electrical conductivities at the depth of the transition zone were monitored, and the responses to the earthquake appeared at all three wells. Although the electrical conductivity and temperature changes were not well understood, groundwater inflow and mixing were likely caused by the earthquake, and the responses were various and site specific. The responses to the earthquake were closely related to the hydrogeological characteristics at each monitoring well, and a more detailed hydrogeological characterization is needed to understand the mechanisms related to earthquakes in general. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of seasonal variations in hydrological stresses and spatial variations in geologic conditions on a TCE plume at an industrial complex in Wonju,Korea

Spatial and temporal variations in a trichloroethylene (TCE) plume at an industrial complex in Wonju, Korea, were examined based on hydrogeological data and seven rounds of groundwater quality data collected over a year. The site has considerable vertical heterogeneities; the top layer of soil is covered by impermeable paving material at several locations, followed by a series of reclaimed or residual soil layers, and with weathered rocks to the crystalline biotite granite at the bottom. Areal heterogeneity in the surface conditions plays an important role in controlling groundwater recharge. The heterogeneity structure is influenced by complex surface conditions paved with asphalt and concrete. Owing to the presence of limited recharge area and concentrated summer precipitation events, the effects of seasonal variations on groundwater hydraulics tend to diminish with distance from the recharge area. This result was established by analysing the influence of the contrasting surface recharge conditions between the near‐source zone and the far zone, and the seasonally concentrated precipitation on the transport patterns of a TCE plume. In addition, variations in the plume's downstream contaminant flux levels were also analysed along a transect line near the source zone. The results show that the general tendency of the TCE plume contaminant concentration and mass discharges were reproducible if we account for seasonal recharge variations and the associated changes in the groundwater level. During recharge events, the TCE concentration variations appear to be influenced by leaching of the residual dense non‐aqueous‐phase liquid (DNAPL) TCE trapped in the unsaturated zone. This result shows that seasonal variations in contaminant plume near the source zone is inevitable at this site, and that these variations indicate the presence of residual DNAPL at or above the water table, at least in some isolated locations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2006年青海玉树5.0、5.6、5.4级地震灾害损失及震害特点

2006年7月18、19日在青海玉树发生了5．0、5．6、5．4级地震,地震造成了玉树县上拉秀乡、杂多县萨呼腾镇的房屋破坏,震后青海省地震局会同玉树州地震局、玉树地震台对玉树地震的灾害损失进行了现场评估,并对玉树地震的震害特点进行了总结,最后提出了相关建议。