Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.     

PM10 data assimilation over south Korea to Asian dust forecasting model with the optimal interpolation method

A data assimilation (DA) system using ground PM₁₀ observation for Asian Dust Aerosol Model version 2 (ADAM2), which is the operational dust forecasting model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been developed with the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The observations are provided by the PM₁₀ network operated by KMA. Three DA experiments are performed to simulate a dust event observed in Korea from 1 March to 31 May 2009 with different assimilation cycles of 24 (DA24), 12 (DA12), and 06 hours (DA06). 48-hour forecasts from the adjusted Initial Condition (IC) of dust concentration are compared with control simulation (CTL) and observation from independent stations. It is found that CTL simulates spatial patterns of dust emitted and transported associated with a developing low pressure system over the dust source regions quite well, compared with satellite measurement. However, it appears that there is considerable uncertainty in estimating the concentration of dust. With IC adjustment, the model simulates improved dust concentration, showing considerably reduced RMSE, particularly for the prediction within 12 hours of forecast. At the same time, it is shown that the time interval of DA affects the predictability of ADAM2, so that DA06 appears to have better predictability within a 12-hour simulation, reducing RMSE by 50% compared with CTL. This suggests that assimilating PM₁₀ to the dust prediction model using OI has the potential to predict air quality in Korea when the cycle of assimilation is sufficiently short.     

Interdecadal changes in interannual variability of the global monsoon precipitation and interrelationships among its subcomponents

The interdecadal and the interannual variability of the global monsoon (GM) precipitation over the area which is chosen by the definition of Wang and Ding (Geophys Res Lett 33: L06711, 2006) are investigated. The recent increase of the GM precipitation shown in previous studies is in fact dominant during local summer. It is evident that the GM monsoon precipitation has been increasing associated with the positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent decades. Against the increasing trend of the GM summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, its interannual variability has been weakened. The significant change-point for the weakening is detected around 1993. The recent weakening of the interannual variability is related to the interdecadal changes in interrelationship among the GM subcomponents around 1993. During P1 (1979–1993) there is no significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. On the other hand, there are significant interrelationships among the Asian, North American, and North African summer monsoon precipitations during P2 (1994–2009). It is noted that the action center of the interdecadal changes is the Asian summer (AS) monsoon system. It is found that during P2 the Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)-related variability is dominant but during P1 the ENSO-related variability is dominant over the AS monsoon region. The WNPSM-related variability is rather related to central-Pacific (CP) type ENSO rather than the eastern-Pacific (EP) type ENSO. Model experiments confirm that the CP type ENSO forcing is related to the dominant WNPSM-related variability and can be responsible for the significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents.     

A novel computational approach for large deformation and post‐failure analyses of segmental retaining wall systems

Segmental retaining wall (SRW) systems are commonly used in geotechnical practice to stabilize cut and fill slopes. Because of their flexibility, these systems can tolerate minor movements and settlements without incurring damage or crack. Despite these advantages, very few numerical studies of large deformations and post‐failure behavior of SRW systems are found in the current literature. Traditional numerical methods, such as the finite element method, suffer from mesh entanglement, thus are unable to simulate large deformations and flexible behavior of retaining wall blocks in SRW systems. To overcome the above limitations, a novel computational framework based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method was developed to simulate large deformations and post‐failure behavior of soils and retaining wall blocks in SRW systems. The proposed numerical framework is a hybrid continuum/discontinuum approach that can model soil as an elasto‐plastic material and retaining wall blocks as independent rigid bodies associated with both translational and rotational degrees of freedom. A new contact model is proposed within the SPH framework to simulate the interaction between the soil and the blocks and between the blocks. As an application of the proposed numerical method, a two‐dimensional simulation of an SRW collapse was simulated and compared to experimental results conducted under the same conditions. The results showed that the proposed computational approach provided satisfactory agreement with the experiment. This suggests that the new framework is a promising numerical approach to model SRW systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeo-hydrogeological control on groundwater As levels in Red River delta,Vietnam

To study the geological control on groundwater As concentrations in Red River delta, depth-specific groundwater sampling and geophysical logging in 11 monitoring wells was conducted along a 45 km transect across the southern and central part of the delta, and the literature on the Red River delta’s Quaternary geological development was reviewed. The water samples (n = 30) were analyzed for As, major ions, Fe²⁺, H₂S, NH₄, CH₄, δ¹⁸O and δD, and the geophysical log suite included natural gamma-ray, formation and fluid electrical conductivity. The SW part of the transect intersects deposits of grey estuarine clays and deltaic sands in a 15–20 km wide and 50–60 m deep Holocene incised valley. The NE part of the transect consists of 60–120 m of Pleistocene yellowish alluvial deposits underneath 10–30 m of estuarine clay overlain by a 10–20 m veneer of Holocene sediments. The distribution of δ¹⁸O-values (range −12.2‰ to −6.3‰) and hydraulic head in the sample wells indicate that the estuarine clay units divide the flow system into an upper Holocene aquifer and a lower Pleistocene aquifer. The groundwater samples were all anoxic, and contained Fe²⁺ (0.03–2.0 mM), Mn (0.7–320 μM), SO₄ (<2.1 μM–0.75 mM), H₂S (<0.1–7.0 μM), NH₄ (0.03–4.4 mM), and CH₄ (0.08–14.5 mM). Generally, higher concentrations of NH₄ and CH₄ and low concentrations of SO₄ were found in the SW part of the transect, dominated by Holocene deposits, while the opposite was the case for the NE part of the transect. The distribution of the groundwater As concentration (<0.013–11.7 μM; median 0.12 μM (9 μg/L)) is related to the distribution of NH₄, CH₄ and SO₄. Low concentrations of As (?0.32 μM) were found in the Pleistocene aquifer, while the highest As concentrations were found in the Holocene aquifer. PHREEQC-2 speciation calculations indicated that Fe²⁺ and H₂S concentrations are controlled by equilibrium for disordered mackinawite and precipitation of siderite. An elevated groundwater salinity (Cl range 0.19–65.1 mM) was observed in both aquifers, and dominated in the deep aquifer. A negative correlation between aqueous As and an estimate of reduced SO₄ was observed, indicating that Fe sulphide precipitation poses a secondary control on the groundwater As concentration.     

Use of mixed bivariate distributions for deriving inter‐station correlation coefficients of rain rate

Even though rain rate is notorious for its spatial and temporal intermittency, its effect on the second‐order statistics of rain rate, especially the inter‐station correlation coefficients, has not been intensively evaluated before. This study has derived and compared the inter‐station correlation coefficient of rain rate for three cases of data: (1) only the positive measurements at both locations; (2) the positive measurements at either one or both locations; (3) all the measurements including zero measurement at both locations. For these three cases, the inter‐station correlation coefficients are analytically derived by applying the mixed bivariate log‐normal distribution. As an application example, the model parameters are estimated using the rain rate data collected at the Geum River basin, Korea, and the resulting inter‐station correlation coefficients are evaluated and compared with those estimated by applying the Gaussian distribution. We could find that highly biased inter‐station correlation coefficients are unavoidable when simply estimating them under the assumption of Gaussian distribution, or even when using the log‐transformed rain rate data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.