Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system(ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry(PI) and the other for the A1 FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.     

走向Internet网际

从１９９５年３月１３日开始，我们开始与中国科学院网络中心和昆明电信局通信处联系，准备建立云南天文台Ｅｍａｉｌ系统。到３月２１日本系统技术上已基本调试完成。本文介绍了这一系统的建立过程和通过这一系统可以得到的网络资源。     

The apparent angular diameter of the hotspots of the radio galaxy cygnus a at 81.5 MHZ

Scintillation observations of the radio galaxy Cyg A have shown that, at 81.5 MHz, its hotspots had diameters greater than 6 arcsec, much greater than the 2 arcsec observed at 5000 MHz. One possible explanation is that scattering by inhomogeneities in the interstellar medium will lead to a size that increases with increasing wavelength, and this would imply that the medium in the direction of Cyg A is highly turbulent, with a fluctuation in electron density about two orders of magnitude greater than the typical value inferred from pulsar observations.     

高挂山—牛头寨地区小型环形影象构造分析及其找矿意义

高挂山—牛头寨地区,通过大比例尺航片解译,发现6个大小不等的小型环形影象信息。这些环形影象与岩浆活动、已知矿床、矿化点、重砂异常、物化探异常等的分布有着内在的联系。为预测找矿远景区和找隐伏矿床提供了影象依据。     

Jordan日照记录阈值分析

本文是通过10个月的日射、日照资料对比观测、统计的乔唐、康氏和光电式日照计记录阈值的平均值和标准偏差,分析了乔唐日照计进光孔径、涂药方式对感光迹线的影响,测定了感光药的吸收光谱,并根据日出日没时直接日射辐照度的平均变化率,估算了由阈值的不确定度引起的日照时数的误差,从而为我国几十年的乔唐日照资料的评价提供依据。     

基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报

为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.     

风电场风资源测量与计算的精度控制

根据多个复杂地形风电场观测操作实践和大量观测数据的计算分析,提出了对观测数据和计算质量精度控制的主要措施,包括:复杂地形测风站布设的5个原则,仪器的合理选型和设置;对由于测风仪固有的系统误差和缺测数据的插补订正可能引起的计算误差进行了定量估算,通过对大量实测数据的对比计算显示:①目前普遍采用的进口风速计的相对偏差在1.6%～5.25%之间,由此可导致轮毂高度附近的年平均风功率密度误差在5%以上,最大达13.8%;②在季风气候区、复杂地形和风的年变率较大的地区,进行缺测数据插补订正时,应选取同季或同一主导风向的数据作为插补订正的基础数据,否则可能导致其平均风功率密度相对误差达20%～50%.     

一种IIR滤波器的FPGA设计与仿真

在分析IIR滤波器结构的基础上,借助Mat lab完成一种基于FPGA的级联型IIR滤波器的设计与实现,同时设计并生成向量文件(.vec文件),在QuartusⅡ中完成向量文件的仿真。仿真结果表明文中设计的IIR滤波器能够高效完成滤波功能,同时通过向量文件的激励引入能够增强FPGA的仿真能力。     

Correlated Radio-Optical Variations on Intraday Timescales

Correlated radio-optical variations on intraday timescales have been observed (e.g. In BLO 0716 714) and such radio intraday variability is suggested to have an intrinsic ori- gin. Recently, multi-wavelength observations, simultaneous at radio, mm-submm, optical and hard X-rays, of 0716 714, show that during a period of intraday/interday variations at ra- dio and mm wavelengths, the apparent brightness temperature of the source exceeded the Compton-limit (～1012 K) by 2--4 orders of magnitude, but no Compton catastrophe (or no high luminosity of inverse-Compton radiation) was detected. It is also found that the intra- day/interday variations at mm-submm wavelengths are consistent with the evolutionary be- havior of a standard synchrotron source and for the intraday/interday variations at centimeter wavelengths opacity effects can play a significant role, which is consistent with the interpreta- tion suggested previously by Qian et al. Thus the apparent high brightness temperatures may probably be explained in terms of Doppler boosting effects due to bulk relativistic motion of the source. We will argue a scenario to simulate the correlations between the radio and optical variations on intraday timescales observed in BLO 0716 714 in terms of a relativistic shock propagating through a jet with a dual structure.     

地面稠密观测资料在强对流天气监测预警中的研究进展

综述国内外数篇论文,从强对流天气监测、预报预警、模式同化3个方面总结分析了近年来地面稠密观测资料的应用与优劣之处。综述表明:地面加密自动站、风廓线雷达、地基GPS、雨滴谱仪等多种观测仪器组成的地面稠密观测网具有时间尺度密集、覆盖面积广泛、能捕捉较多细微变化的优势,通过该观测网所得数据总结出的一系列指示性指标在强对流监测预警中具有重要的指示意义。但因中国地形天气情况复杂多变、数据缺失、仪器造价昂贵等问题,导致该观测网所得指示性指标不能适用于中国全境,应根据该观测网数据分析总结适应本地的预报指标。