Palynology of the circum-mediterranean triassic: Phytogeographical and palaeoclimatological implications

Following a tentative evaluation of palynological information from Ladinian and, more particularly, Karnian successions, there seems to be every indication that qualitative and quantitative compositional differences of palynological assemblages could well be applied in testing concepts of Triassic phytogeography and palaeoclimatology. The following implications are emphasized:

1. There is sufficient palynological evidence that the Mediterranean region includes a domain of mixed northern (Laurasian) and southern (Gondwana) types of floras.
2. The concept of an essentially arid nature of a wide equatorial climatic belt during Triassic times finds palynological support.
3. Palynological evidence does not contradict a concept of pronounced decrease in precipitation towards the western part of the Mediterranean region.
4. In Europe, occurrences of hygrophytic palynofloras and coals within an arid climatic zone can be explained by the water-supply of extensive river-systems.

     

Interior boundary-aligned unstructured grid generation and cell-centered versus vertex-centered CVD-MPFA performance

Grid generation for reservoir simulation must honor classical key constraints and be boundary aligned such that control-volume boundaries are aligned with geological features such as layers, shale barriers, fractures, faults, pinch-outs, and multilateral wells. An unstructured grid generation procedure is proposed that automates control-volume and/or control point boundary alignment and yields a PEBI-mesh both with respect to primal and dual (essentially PEBI) cells. In order to honor geological features in the primal configuration, we introduce the idea of protection circles, and to generate a dual-cell feature based grid, we construct halos around key geological features. The grids generated are employed to study comparative performance of cell-centred versus cell-vertex control-volume distributed multi-point flux approximation (CVD-MPFA) finite-volume formulations using equivalent degrees of freedom. The formulation of CVD-MPFA schemes in cell-centred and cell-vertex modes is analogous and requires switching control volume from primal to dual or vice versa together with appropriate data structures and boundary conditions. The relative benefits of both types of approximation, i.e., cell-centred versus vertex-centred, are made clear in terms of flow resolution and degrees of freedom required.     

Pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water content at field capacity and permanent wilting point in hot Arid Western India

Characterization of soil water retention, e.g., water content at field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) over a landscape plays a key role in efficient utilization of available scarce water resources in dry land agriculture; however, direct measurement thereof for multiple locations in the field is not always feasible. Therefore, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) were developed to estimate soil water retention at FC and PWP for dryland soils of India. A soil database available for Arid Western India (N=370) was used to develop PTFs. The developed PTFs were tested in two independent datasets from arid regions of India (N=36) and an arid region of USA (N=1789). While testing these PTFs using independent data from India, root mean square error (RMSE) was found to be 2.65 and 1.08 for FC and PWP, respectively, whereas for most of the tested ‘established’ PTFs, the RMSE was >3.41 and >1.15, respectively. Performance of the developed PTFs from the independent dataset from USA was comparable with estimates derived from ‘established’ PTFs. For wide applicability of the developed PTFs, a user-friendly soil moisture calculator was developed. The PTFs developed in this study may be quite useful to farmers for scheduling irrigation water as per soil type.     

Mechanisms of shear failure in artificial fractures of sandstone and their implication for models of hydromechanical coupling

Summary Direct shear tests, in which the behaviour of the rock surfaces during shear could be continuously observed, were used to study the shear failure of a profiled and clean discontinuity artificially prepared from natural sandstone. Displacement transducers were used to measure the normal and shear displacements. A series of strain gauges glued on the sides of the upper block provided information on the change of the stress field occurring close to the discontinuities whilst shear displacement increased, and these changes were then compared with the behaviour of the profiled surface. The results of the laboratory tests, the sequence of photographs taken for most of them, and the results conducted with a sample of similar shape made from the same rock material and tested in a rotary shear machine, allowed several stages and mechanisms of failure to be defined: static friction and mobilization of initial shear stiffness; mobilization of sliding; mobilization of brittle fracture; post-peak failure of the teeth; descent of the teeth; gliding and ploughing; commencement of second cycle of shearing. In many respects these stages are similar to those occurring between sliding surfaces of metal and suggest that the analyses developed in tribology may be relevant to the development of constitutive models for predicting the hydromechanical coupled behaviour of a discontinuity with shear displacement. Such models will have to consider these different stages of shear, because the original discontinuity changes its geometry with displacement and is filled with gouge which changes its grain size with displacement.     

The effects of trust in government on earthquake survivors’ risk perception and preparedness in China

Natural Hazards - The accumulation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in ambient air affects air quality through the generation of surface level ozone and secondary organic aerosol. A study of...     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene rise and collapse of Lake Suguta,northern Kenya Rift

The Late Pleistocene to Middle Holocene African Humid Period (AHP) was characterized by dramatic hydrologic fluctuations in the tropics. A better knowledge of the timing, spatial extent, and magnitude of these hydrological fluctuations is essential to decipher the climate-forcing mechanisms that controlled them. The Suguta Valley (2°N, northern Kenya Rift) has recorded extreme environmental changes during the AHP. Extensive outcrops of lacustrine sediments, ubiquitous wave-cut notches, shorelines, and broad terrace treads along the valley margins are the vestiges of Lake Suguta, which once filled an 80 km long and 20 km wide volcano–tectonic depression. Lake Suguta was deep between 16.5 and 8.5 cal ka BP. During its maximum highstand, it attained a water depth of ca 300 m, a surface area of ca 2150 km², and a volume of ca 390 km³. The spatial distribution of lake sediments, the elevation of palaeo-shorelines, and other geomorphic evidences suggest that palaeo-Lake Suguta had an overflow towards the Turkana basin to the north. After 8.5 cal ka BP, Lake Suguta abruptly disappeared. A comparison of the Lake Suguta water-level curve with other reconstructed water levels from the northern part of the East African Rift System shows that local insolation, which is dominated by precessional cycles, may have controlled the timing of lake highstands in this region. Our data show that changes of lake levels close to the Equator seem to be driven by fluctuations of spring insolation, while fluctuations north of the Equator are apparently related to variations in summer insolation. However, since these inferred timings of lake-level changes are mostly based on the radiocarbon dating of carbonate shells, which may have been affected by a local age reservoir, alternative dating methods are needed to support this regional synthesis. Between 12.7 and 11.8 cal ka BP, approximately during the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude Younger Dryas, the water level of Lake Suguta fell by ca 50 m, suggesting that remote influences also affected local hydrology.     

Tidal and Meteorological Forcing of Suspended Sediment Flux in a Muddy Mesotidal Estuary

Although the supply and fate of suspended sediment is of fundamental importance to the functioning and morphological evolution of muddy estuaries, reliable sediment budgets have been established in only a few cases. Especially for smaller estuaries, inadequate bathymetric surveys and a lack of intertidal sedimentation data often preclude estimation of the sediment budget from morphological change, while instrument-derived residual fluxes typically lie well within the errors associated with measurement of much larger gross tidal transports. Given suitably long-term records of continuously monitored suspended sediment concentration (SSC), however, analysis of the major scales of variation in sediment transport and their relation to hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing permits qualitative testing of hypotheses suggested by directly measured residual fluxes. This paper analyzes data from a 1-year acoustic Doppler profiler deployment in the Blyth estuary, a muddy mesotidal barrier-enclosed system on the UK east coast. Flux calculations indicate a small sediment import equivalent to just 1.5% of the gross flood tide transport. Little confidence can be assigned to either the magnitude or direction of such a small residual when considered in isolation. However, the inference that the sediment regime is finely balanced is qualitatively supported by the close similarity between flood-tide and ebb-tide SSC values. Singular spectrum analysis of the SSC time series shows the expectedly large contributions to the variance in SSC at intratidal and subtidal (semimonthly and monthly) scales but also picks out intermittent variability that is initially attributed to a combination of non-tidal surge and wind stress forcing. Closer examination of the data through cross-correlograms and event-scale analysis indicates that local meteorological forcing is the major factor. Acting through the resuspension of intertidal mudflat sediments at times of strong westerlies, meteorological forcing is directly implicated in episodic sediment export from the estuary. Thresholding of tide-averaged fluxes using a range of critical wind stress values further indicates that ‘tide-dominated’ (i.e., low wind stress) and ‘wave-dominated’ (high wind stress) conditions are associated with sediment import and export. Sediment balance is potentially sensitive to the frequency of high wind stress events, since the associated sediment exports are several times larger than the average import under calm conditions. Intermittent meteorological forcing may thus exert an important control on the sedimentary balance of otherwise tidally dominated muddy estuarine systems, and the role of wind climate should not be overlooked in studies of estuary response to environmental change.     

High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: Part II—projected climate changes

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971–2000) and future A1B scenario (2021–2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of ?2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly.     

The cross‐channel flow at the entrance of Lancaster Sound

Abstract

A westward current flows along the northern side of Lancaster Sound and an eastward current flows along the southern side. A cross‐channel flow is commonly observed to link them near the eastern entrance of Lancaster Sound; this flow is modelled assuming inviscid flow and conservation of potential vorticity. It is shown that the westward decrease in depth is sufficient to cause a cross‐channel flow that couples the inflow to the outflow. The modelled cross‐channel flow takes place at a distance inside the entrance that is less than that observed for the surface current. Obviously stratification reduces the coupling of the surface current to the bathymetry. A more realistic result is obtained with the barotropic model if the bottom slope is halved.

An inviscid mean barotropic flow out of the channel is also modelled and found to be concentrated on the southern bank in order to conserve potential vorticity. It seems that barotropic instability and friction would limit the narrowing of the flow.     

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).