Different approaches to model error formulation in 4D-Var: a study with high-resolution advection schemes

All numerical models are imperfect. Weak constraint variational data assimilation ( VDA ), which provides a treatment of the modelling errors, is studied; building on the approach of Vidard et al. (Tellus, 56 A, pp. 177–188, 2004). The evolution of model error ( ME ) is modelled using ordinary differential equations, which involve a scalar parameter. These approaches were tested using different high-resolution advection schemes. The first set of experiments were constructed to see if it is possible to account for (numerical) discretization error within such a framework. In other set of experiments, a systematic source of modelling error was introduced by deliberately specifying an incorrect value for the Coriolis parameter in the model. Results with observational state at half of the model state resolution, are also presented. We also discuss a method of estimating the scalar parameter in the ME through VDA . In all cases, the inclusion of ME provides reduction in forecasting errors. Also, our experiments indicate that different settings of the model (e.g. using different high-resolution advection schemes) would need different ME formulation. Results presented in this paper could be used to formulate sophisticated ME forms to account for systematic errors in higher dimensional models with complex advection schemes.     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Soft computing approach for real-time estimation of missing wave heights

This paper presents soft computing approach for estimation of missing wave heights at a particular location on a real-time basis using wave heights at other locations. Six such buoy networks are developed in Eastern Gulf of Mexico using soft computing techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP). Wave heights at five stations are used to estimate wave height at the sixth station. Though ANN is now an established tool in time series analysis, use of GP in the field of time series forecasting/analysis particularly in the area of Ocean Engineering is relatively new and needs to be explored further. Both ANN and GP approach perform well in terms of accuracy of estimation as evident from values of various statistical parameters employed. The GP models work better in case of extreme events. Results of both approaches are also compared with the performance of large-scale continuous wave modeling/forecasting system WAVEWATCH III. The models are also applied on real time basis for 3 months in the year 2007. A software is developed using evolved GP codes (C++) as back end with Visual Basic as the Front End tool for real-time application of wave estimation model.     

Mesozooplankton biomass and grazing responses to Cyclone Opal, a subtropical mesoscale eddy

As part of E-Flux III cruise studies in March 2005, plankton net collections were made to assess the effects of a cyclonic cold-core eddy (Cyclone Opal) on the biomass and grazing of mesozooplankton. Mesozooplankton biomass in the central region of Cyclone Opal, an area of uplifted nutricline and a subsurface diatom bloom, averaged 0.80±0.24 and 1.51±0.59 g DW m⁻², for day and night tows, respectively. These biomass estimates were about 80% higher than control (OUT) stations, with increases more or less proportionately distributed among size classes from 0.2 to >5 mm. Though elevated relative to surrounding waters south of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawai’i lee), total biomass and size distribution in Cyclone Opal were almost exactly the same as contemporary measurements made at Stn. ALOHA, 100 km north of the islands, by the HOT (Hawaii Ocean Time-series) Program. Mesozooplankton biomass and community composition at the OUT stations were also similar to ALOHA values from 1994 to 1996, preceding a recent decadal increase. These comparisons may therefore provide insight into production characteristics or biomass gradients associated with decadal changes at Stn. ALOHA. Gut fluorescence estimates were higher in Opal than in ambient waters, translating to grazing impacts of 0.11±0.02 d⁻¹ (IN) versus 0.03±0.01 d⁻¹ (OUT). Over the depth-integrated euphotic zone, mesozooplankton accounted for 30% of the combined grazing losses of phytoplankton to micro- and meso-herbivores in Opal, as compared to 13% at control stations. Estimates of active export flux by migrating zooplankton averaged 0.81 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ in Cyclone Opal and 0.37 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ at OUT stations, 53% and 24%, respectively, of the carbon export measured by passive sediment traps. Migrants also exported 0.18 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹ (117% of trap N flux) in Cyclone Opal compared to 0.08 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹ (51% of trap flux) at control stations. Overall, the food-web importance of mesozooplankton increased in Cyclone Opal both in absolute and relative terms. Diel migrants provided evidence for enhanced export flux in the eddy that was missed by sediment trap and ²³⁴Th techniques, and migrant-mediated flux was the major export term in the observed bloom-perturbation response and N mass balance of the eddy.     

Nutrient exchange via the Bering Strait

It was shown that the supply of high nutrient concentrations via the western part of the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea is mainly caused by the quasi-stationary cyclonic eddy located between the Chukchi Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. A quantitative estimation of the nutrient supply via the Bering Strait was made.     

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.     

Atmospheric temperature sounding with the Fourier spectrometer

Preliminary results of a space experiment using the IKFS-2 infrared sounder (Meteor-M2 satellite) showed high-quality of measurements of spectra of the outgoing thermal radiation of the atmosphere–surface system and the adequacy of developed IR radiation atmospheric models in the 15-μm carbon gas absorption band used to recover the vertical profiles of the atmospheric temperature. Outgoing radiation spectra measured by IKFS-2 instruments make it possible to restore vertical temperature profiles with errors close to 1K in most of the 0–30 km high-altitude region, except for the lower troposphere and altitudes above 30 km, where these errors are close to 2–3K.     

On the mechanism of wind-induced transformation of a river runoff water lens in the Kara Sea

The paper describes a possible mechanism for the transformation of a desalinated water lens in the Kara Sea under the action of vertical turbulent mixing induced by wind. Using a simple one-dimensional model, we show that the strongest transformation occurs at the edge of the lens—its frontal zone, where the thickness of the desalinated layer is the smallest. Because of the strong (cubic) nonlinear dependence of the turbulent energy flux on the wind speed, significant transformation of the frontal zone of the lens occurs during storm events. A series of consecutive storms can cause horizontal lens fragmentation into several zones in which the salinity increases spasmodically towards the edge of the lens.     

Spatial variation in low-level <Superscript>134</Superscript>Cs in the coastal sediments off central Honshu in the Sea of Japan: implications for delivery,migration, and redistribution patterns

In 2014 and 2015, we examined the spatial distribution of cesium-134 (half-life: 2.06 years) from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in marine sediments within coastal–basin areas (water depths of 40–520 m) off central Honshu Island (the main island of Japan) in the Sea of Japan. The ¹³⁴Cs concentrations in both the surface sediment (0–1 cm depth) and whole-core inventory exhibited wide variations, and were highest at the site closest to the Agano River Estuary area (6.7 Bq/kg-dry and 886 Bq/m², respectively). This indicates that ¹³⁴Cs in coastal areas was delivered by riverine suspended solids (SS). Given the spatial variation in ¹³⁴Cs concentrations, we believe that ¹³⁴Cs partially migrated northeastward within ~50 km along Honshu Island (at water depths shallower than ~140 m), and southwestward, including the Sado Basin area. This is predominantly attributable to the transport of SS by bottom currents and unsteady downward delivery onto the steep slopes of the basin. The total amount of ¹³⁴Cs in the study area in 2014 was estimated at approximately 0.6 TBq (decay-corrected to March 11, 2011, date of FDNPP accident).