Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Trace Metals in Selected Benthic Invertebrates from Belgian Coastal Waters (1981–1996)

Mercury, cadmium, lead, copper, zinc and chromium were assessed in brown shrimp (Crangon crangon), swimming crab (Liocarcinus holsatus), hermit crab (Pagurus bernhardus), starfish (Asterias rubens) and cut trough shell (Spisula subtruncata) from ten sampling stations off the Belgian coast, including three dredge spoils disposal sites. Calculations of time trends indicated that on the whole concentrations of trace metals had significantly decreased since 1981, also on dredged material dumping sites. Starfish and hermit crab were found to be the most promising benthic indicator species for metal contamination. Globally, the location of the sites, including the dredge spoils disposal zones, showed to be of little influence on the concentrations of trace metals.     

A novel mathematical morphology based algorithm for shoreline extraction from satellite images

Abstract

Shoreline extraction is fundamental and inevitable for several studies. Ascertaining the precise spatial location of the shoreline is crucial. Recently, the need for using remote sensing data to accomplish the complex task of automatic extraction of features, such as shoreline, has considerably increased. Automated feature extraction can drastically minimize the time and cost of data acquisition and database updating. Effective and fast approaches are essential to monitor coastline retreat and update shoreline maps. Here, we present a flexible mathematical morphology-driven approach for shoreline extraction algorithm from satellite imageries. The salient features of this work are the preservation of actual size and shape of the shorelines, run-time structuring element definition, semi-automation, faster processing, and single band adaptability. The proposed approach is tested with various sensor-driven images with low to high resolutions. Accuracy of the developed methodology has been assessed with manually prepared ground truths of the study area and compared with an existing shoreline classification approach. The proposed approach is found successful in shoreline extraction from the wide variety of satellite images based on the results drawn from visual and quantitative assessments.     

Nocturnal urban heat island in Lisbon (Portugal): main features and modelling attempts

Summary In recent years, several studies have examined the Lisbon urban climate. A central conclusion is the existence of a nocturnal urban heat island (mean ΔT_u−r = 2.5 °C). The aim of this paper is to summarise several attempts carried out in the last decade to interpolate nocturnal air temperatures across Lisbon, in order to be able to draw thermal maps as accurately as possible. This study refers only to clear nights. Stepwise multiple regression and a Geographic Information System were used to model the relation between air temperature and parameters related to land-use and topography. The different regression models (coefficients of determination between 0.68 and 0.92) show that canopy layer air temperature depends on sky-view factor, building height and percentage of built-up area, but also to a great extend on mesoclimatic geographic factors such as altitude, topography and distance from the Tagus River. Examples of four frequently encountered nocturnal air temperature patterns are presented, each corresponds to a different weather type. This method employed could prove useful in drawing climatic maps that may be of use in master plans of urban municipalities.     

A comparison of methods to assess long-term changes in Sonoran Desert vegetation

Knowledge about the condition of vegetation cover and composition is critical for assessing the structure and function of ecosystems. To effectively quantify the impacts of a rapidly changing environment, methods to track long-term trends of vegetation must be precise, repeatable, and time- and cost-efficient. Measuring vegetation cover and composition in arid and semiarid regions is especially challenging because vegetation is typically sparse, discontinuous, and individual plants are widely spaced. To meet the goal of long-term vegetation monitoring in the Sonoran Desert and other arid and semiarid regions, we determined how estimates of plant species, total vegetation, and soil cover obtained using a widely-implemented monitoring protocol compared to a more time- and resource-intensive plant census. We also assessed how well this protocol tracked changes in cover through 82 years compared to the plant census. Results from the monitoring protocol were comparable to those from the plant census, despite low and variable plant species cover. Importantly, this monitoring protocol could be used as a rapid, “off-the shelf” tool for assessing land degradation (or desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems.     

Signature of differential rotation in solar disk‐integrated chromospheric line emission

UARS SOLSTICE data have been subjected to Fourier and wavelet analyses in order to search for the signature of the solar rotation law in the disk‐integrated irradiance of UV lines. Lyman‐α, Mg II, and Ca II data show a different behaviour. In the SOLSTICE data there are significant temporal variations of the rotation rate of the UV tracers over 5—6 years. Often several distinct rotation periods appear almost simultaneously. Beside the basic period around 27 days there are signals at 32—35 days corresponding to the rotation rate at very high latitudes. For more than 5 years during another period of the solar cycle the rotational behaviour is quite different; there is an indication of differential rotation of active regions in these Ca II ground‐based data. The data contain a wealth of information about the solar differential rotation, but it proves difficult to disentangle the effects of the different emitting sources.     

Investigation of ammonia removal from polluted waters by Clinoptilolite zeolite

Ammonia nitrogen compounds in the wastewaters and effluents have harmful effects on water resources. Ion exchange with zeolites is a separation process for ammonia removal from effluents. The objective of this research was to study the efficiency of an ammonia removal and the factor affecting to this process. The Clinoptilolite was obtained from Semnan mines at the north part of Iran. The samples were grounded and sieved based on the U.S. standard mesh number 20, 30, 40 and conditioned by ammonia sulfate and sodium chloride solutions. The characteristics of samples for ammonia removal and the selectivity sequence for adsorbing interfering cations were then determined. Results shown that the average ion exchange capacity of zeolite in batch and continuous systems were 6.65–16 and 16.31–19.5 mg NH₄ ⁺ /g zeolite weight, respectively. In study on the zeolite for selective cations showed the ranking of K⁺, NH₄ ⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ respectively. Results indicated that high level of regeneration (95–98%) might be achieved with NaCl solution. Based on the results, Clinoptilolite may be effective applied in wastewater treatment, both from technical and economical aspects.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

A catalogue and finding list of galactic novae

A catalogue of galactic novae and an atlas of finding charts are under preparation and will be published in 1984. The status of the project is described.Paper presented at the Lembang-Bamberg IAU Colloquium No. 80 on Double Stars: Physical Properties and Generic Relations, held at Bandung, Indonesia, 3–7 June, 1983.