两个相似路径台风残余造成局地特大暴雨的成因机制和能量收支对比分析

本文利用ERA-Interim 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料、自动站小时和分钟加密资料、风云2G（FY-2G）卫星红外云图及多普勒雷达和风廓线雷达资料对2015年路径高度相似的“苏迪罗”和“杜鹃”台风在浙江沿海引发的局地特大暴雨进行对比分析。这两次降水过程都是在台风减弱为热带低压甚至残压并深入内陆远离浙江沿海后发生的。结果表明,“苏迪罗”降水过程是由低层强东南和偏南急流长时间辐合加上有利地形共同作用导致的;经向环流背景下来自季风持续的水汽输送有利于“苏迪罗”维持较长的生命史和稳定的降水。“杜鹃”残压特大暴雨的触发系统则是高纬地面冷高压底部的东东北出流南下与“杜鹃”北象限的东东南风交汇形成的中尺度倒槽;纬向环流和强盛副热带高压造成的弱引导气流及夏季风南撤和低涡卷挟造成的水汽通道断裂是“杜鹃”登陆后快速减弱为残压和降水维持时间较短的原因。两次台风降水过程中均无外部动能输送和来自有效位能的动能转换。动能收支的主要影响因子为中低层局地次网格运动间的能量转换、旋转风和散度风效应及下垫面的摩擦耗散。所以,虽然“杜鹃”的对流有效位能很小,但仍可造成强对流和特大暴雨。此外,降水过程中释放的凝结潜热造成的局地非绝热加热使气柱中显热能大量累积,促使地面中小尺度涡旋和倒槽不断加深,造成降水的增幅。     

一次强飑线过程极端大风的中尺度分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动气象站加密观测资料和GFS 0.25°×0.25°逐6 h的分析场数据以及多普勒雷达、风廓线等资料,通过背景形势场分析、物理量诊断分析和中尺度分析,对2018年3月4日发生在华东地区的强飑线天气过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明,这次过程具有发生时间(季节)早、移速快、范围广、致灾强等特点,是一次比较少见的早春(冬末)十分强烈的飑线天气过程,是在高空急流辐散区、低空西南急流轴前端、低涡南侧的暖区中发展起来的。飑线过程的地面要素变化十分剧烈,地面有强冷池,与飑线前暖空气之间构成了强的水平温度梯度,致使飑线强度更强;飑线经过时气压涌升所形成的雷暴高压、强气压梯度以及飑线的快速移动均有利于地面极端大风的出现。飑线发展过程中观测到弓形回波、超级单体等强天气系统。中高层动量下传和光滑湖面、喇叭口、狭管效应等特殊地形对于大风的增强效应比较显著,这些因素也加剧了地面极端大风的形成。      

武宁县煤矿矿山地质灾害发育现状及防治措施

江西省武宁县煤矿多属小型矿山,但小煤矿的开采同样会引起诸多矿山地质灾害问题,如废石乱堆乱放,诱发泥石流;不规范开采,造成区域地下水位下降,引起地面沉降、塌陷和矿井冒顶、突水、瓦斯爆炸等,这些问题需要评估和解决。对上述问题进行成因分析、危害性探讨,并针对每项矿山地质灾害问题提出相应的防治措施,可使该区地质灾害得到有效的控制。     

江苏省“十一五”省级基础测绘规划实施方案研究

在分析了江苏基础测绘状况的基础上,介绍了"十一五"基础测绘的原则、目标和任务,提出了组织实施方案和保障措施.     

基于水利益共享的跨境流域水资源多目标分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河为例

以水利益共享代替分水的理念有利于充分发挥水资源效益和减少区域矛盾冲突,但由于缺乏具体可实施的分配模式一直停留在设想阶段。基于水利益共享理念,建立跨境流域水资源多目标分配指标体系,并结合澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源利用现状及需求,提出澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源多目标分配模型。为基于水利益共享的跨境水资源多目标分配提供了具有充分可操作性的指标体系和分配模型,有助于推进跨境流域水利益共享的实施,实现区域双边或多边在水资源利用上的共赢和发展目标。     

GNSS长度测量不确定性试验分析

针对GNSS定位结果总是存在点位误差,由此导出的长度测量值为点位误差的非线性映射,对于长距离定位量测,其非线性影响较小,线性化近似一般可以满足精度要求,但对于短距离量测,其非线性影响不容忽略的问题。该文探讨了GNSS长度测量不确定性来源,通过单点定位和差分定位试验验证了长度测量不确定性与定位精度、点间距离的关系,测试不同偏差和方差估计公式的适用性。试验表明,对于GNSS高精度、长基线测量,其长度统计偏差可以忽略,且方差为基线向量的方向方差;现有不确定性评估公式在超短基线情形适用性会变差,在这种情形下,试验表明二阶偏差和方差估计更为精确。通过消除长度统计偏差得到无偏估计量,可以有效提高距离量测的可靠性,为提高用户距离量测精度提供有益帮助。     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

Some phenomena of the interaction between vegetation and a atmosphere on multiple scales

This article studies the response of the distribution pattern and the physiological characteristics of the ecosystem to the spontaneous precipitation and the interaction between vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales in arid and semi-arid zones, based on measured data of the ecological physiological parameters in the Ordas Plateau of northern China. The results show that the vegetation biomass and the energy use efficiency of photosynthesis are especially sensitive to the annual precipitation; strong and complex interactions exist between the vegetation and the atmosphere on multiple scales leading to supernormal thermal heterogeneity of the underlying surface, the strong vortex movement and turbulence. This study can facilitate understanding of the land surface processes and the influences of global climate change as well as human activities on the human environment in the arid and semi-arid zones. It also aids in improving the parameterization schemes of turbulent fluxes of a heterogeneous underlying surface for land surface processes in climate models.     

基于回归模型的热带气旋条件下的海表降温参数化方案设计

Combining a linear regression and a temperature budget formula, a multivariate regression model is proposed to parameterize and estimate sea surface temperature(SST) cooling induced by tropical cyclones(TCs). Three major dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the TC-induced SST cooling(SSTC), vertical mixing, upwelling and heat flux, are parameterized empirically using a combination of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables:sea surface height(SSH), wind speed, wind curl, TC translation speed and surface net heat flux. The regression model fits reasonably well with 10-year statistical observations/reanalysis data obtained from 100 selected TCs in the northwestern Pacific during 2001–2010, with an averaged fitting error of 0.07 and a mean absolute error of 0.72°C between diagnostic and observed SST cooling. The results reveal that the vertical mixing is overall the pre dominant process producing ocean SST cooling, accounting for 55% of the total cooling. The upwelling accounts for 18% of the total cooling and its maximum occurs near the TC center, associated with TC-induced Ekman pumping. The surface heat flux accounts for 26% of the total cooling, and its contribution increases towards the tropics and the continental shelf. The ocean thermal structures, represented by the SSH in the regression model,plays an important role in modulating the SST cooling pattern. The concept of the regression model can be applicable in TC weather prediction models to improve SST parameterization schemes.     

数字化城市管理系统基础框架数据库建设方法研究

结合郑州数字化城市建设工程的实施,制定了数字化城市建设中基础框架数据库建设的技术路线,采用基于AutoCAD平台一体化制作DLG及城市管理专题数据的方法。结果证明该方法可以整合数据生产,有效避免数据的冗余和矛盾,提高生产效率和数据质量,取得了良好效果。