欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海地区瑞雷波群速度结构与各向异性分布

根据欧亚大陆及西太平洋地区102个数字化台站记录的近万次地震事件的长周期垂直向瑞雷波资料,利用时频分析方法测量并筛选后共得到11213条质量较高的基阶瑞雷波群速度频散资料.纯路径频散的反演中同时计算方位各向异性,反演获得了欧亚大陆及西太平洋边缘海地区(10°E—150°E,10°S—80°N)8—200s共28个周期的瑞雷波群速度及各向异性空间分布图象.瑞雷波高分辨率层析成像表明,30—60s周期,以青藏高原为中心呈极低速分布;100—120s周期,速度差异幅度较大,在东亚东部及西太平洋边缘海,自北向南显示出一条宽2500—4000km,长约8000km的巨型低速异常带.相对海洋来说,欧亚大陆各向异性强度较弱且快波方向较复杂.由于受到印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞,中国大陆西部的各向异性强度明显大于东部.     

华北1999—2009年水平形变应变场特征

根据华北地区GPS观测数据计算了华北活动块体的运动速度和应变率,以及块体边界带的活动速率和应变率,研究了华北块体的运动和应变率特征,以及边界断裂带的应力作用特征。形变揭示出华北亚板块从西向东运动方向由东向偏转为南东向,NE NNE向断裂带呈现右旋,NWW EW向断裂带呈现左旋。各个次级块体的主压应变应力轴方向存在一定的差异。边界断裂带现今应变应力状态页不相同,郯庐断裂带北段和山西断陷带以压性为主,具有应变能积累显示,但是应变率相对较小,应变能积累缓慢。     

Conditioning temperature‐index model parameters on synoptic weather types for glacier melt simulations

Temperature‐index models are widely favoured as a pragmatic means of simulating glacier melt because of their generally good performance, computational simplicity and limited demands for in situ data. However, their coefficients are normally treated as temporally stationary, unrealistically assuming a constancy of the prevailing weather. We address this simplification by prescribing model coefficients as a function of synoptic weather type, in a procedure that utilizes reanalysis data and preserves the minimal data requirements of temperature‐index models. Using a cross‐validation procedure at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, we demonstrate that applying transient model coefficients, for three temperature‐index models, results in statistically significant increases in the skill with which melt is modelled: Median simulation improvements in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 7.3 and 23.6% are achieved when hourly and daily melt totals are evaluated respectively. Our weather‐type modelling approach also yields insight to processes driving parameter variability, revealing dependence that is consistent with a priori considerations of the surface energy balance. We conclude that incorporating weather types into temperature‐index models holds promise for improving their performance, as well as enhancing understanding variability in coefficient values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地理国情普查数据协同生产系统开发与应用

随着测绘地理信息技术及计算机软硬件的发展,在地理信息数据生产过程中,大量的工序都已采用模块化、并行化的方式处理,目前进行中的全国地理国情普查工作更需要大量业务人员分批分片开展。然而,该种作业方式经常需要将阶段性成果进行集成,用于统一处理或检查,完成之后又需要化整为零。因此,针对目前地理国情并行作业方式,迫切需要一套协同化的地理国情普查数据生产平台和体系来支撑多人在线、协同采集、网络化处理的业务。本文设计开发了地理国情普查数据协同生产系统,为地理国情普查内外业数据管理、质检和处理提供了一整套完整的解决方案。此系统实现和验证了地理国情普查数据协同生产的思想,在地理国情普查青岛区域中已经得到广泛的应用,取得了良好应用效果。     

Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Yangtze River Basin,China

The recent (1970–1999) and future (2070–2099) climates under the SRES A1B scenario, simulated by the regional climate model RegCM4.0 driven with lateral boundary conditions from the ECHAM5 general circulation model, are utilized to force a large-scale hydrological model for assessing the hydrological response to climate changes in the Yangtze River Basin, China. The variable infiltration capacity model (VIC) is utilized to simulate various hydrological components for examining the changes in streamflow at various locations throughout the Yangtze River Basin. In the end of the twenty-first century, most of the Yangtze River Basin stands out as “hotspots” of climate change in China, with an annual temperature increase of approximately 3.5 °C, an increase of annual precipitation in North and a decrease in South. Runoff in the upper reach of Yangtze River is projected to increase throughout the year in the future, especially in spring when the increase will be approximately 30 %. Runoff from the catchments in the northern part of Yangtze River will increase by approximately 10 %, whereas that in the southern part will decrease, especially in the dry season, following precipitation changes. The frequency of extreme floods at three mainstream stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong) is projected to increase significantly. The original extreme floods with return periods of 50, 20, and 10 years will change into floods with return periods of no more than 20, 10, and 5 years. The projected increase in extreme floods will have significant impacts on water resources management and flood control systems in the Yangtze River Basin.     

渭河流域上游枯水径流特征与机理分析

选取渭河干流及上游主要支流葫芦河、牛头河、藉河的秦安、社棠、天水、武山和北道5个水文站1956-2005年50 a逐月径流资料(社棠从1959年开始共47 a资料), 利用传统概率统计法和时间序列分析法, 对渭河流域葫芦河、牛头河、藉河3条支流和渭河干流的年最小枯水流量特征、月最小流量特征、枯水发生时间进行了分析, 并从气象及人类活动两方面分析了枯水径流及极值的形成机理. 研究表明: 渭河流域上游年平均流量与多年平均最小流量的倍比较大, 且下垫面越复杂, 人类活动越频繁, 最小流量受到的影响越大; 最小月平均流量相比瞬时最小流量更为稳定; 耕地面积与枯水径流呈负相关关系, 不同时期、不同量级的枯水流量随着耕地面积的增大而减小.     

基于残余岩溶强度表征和裂缝预测的碳酸盐岩储层评价——以塔中西部上奥陶统良里塔格组为例

我国目前在碳酸盐岩油气勘探阶段常用的储层分类评价标准已难以满足溶蚀孔洞缝广泛存在及构造裂缝发育的古岩溶储层评价的实际需要。选择塔中西部上奥陶统良里塔格组古岩溶储层, 在系统分析储层特征的基础上, 通过表征残余岩溶和开展构造裂缝预测, 引入残余岩溶强度(R)和岩体破坏接近度系数(η)2个参数, 作为古岩溶储层评价的重要定量指标;并与多项储层地质参数综合, 进一步完善了碳酸盐岩古岩溶储层的分类评价标准, 并用于对该地区良里塔格组叠加型古岩溶储层的评价预测。将本区良里塔格组古岩溶储层划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ4类, 并应用多因素综合分析叠合成图法在平面上进行储层评价预测, 认为Ⅰ、Ⅱ类储层主要分布于S2井TZ45井TZ12井一带和 Z11井TZ10井TZ11井一带。     

Exploring the fringe belt concept in Auckland: An urban morphological idea and planning practice

The idea of urban fringe belts has been recognised as a powerful means of understanding the physical form of urban areas and the process of urban outward growth and internal change. Surrounding Auckland's city core, an inner fringe belt can be recognised. Farther out there are middle and outer fringe belts. Fluctuations in socio-economic development, the adoption of new transport modes, land reclamation and topography are major factors influencing the formation of these fringe belts. The examination of changes to fringe belts highlights important issues of urban transformation, which are pertinent to planning and design policies for urban landscape management.     

Comparison between seismic vulnerability models and experimental dynamic properties of existing buildings in France

Elastic fundamental frequency is a key-parameter of simplified seismic design and vulnerability assessment methods. Empirical relationships exist in codes to estimate this frequency but they miss experimental data to validate them accounting for national feature of building design and, above all, corresponding uncertainties. Even if resonance frequency extracted from ambient vibrations may be larger than the elastic frequency (at yield) generally used in earthquake engineering, ambient vibration recordings may provide a large set of data for statistical analysis of periods versus building characteristics relationships. We recorded ambient vibrations and estimated the fundamental frequency of about 60 buildings of various types (RC and masonry) in Grenoble City (France). These data complete the set existing yet, made of 26 RC-buildings of Grenoble (Farsi and Bard 2004) and 28 buildings in Nice (France) (Dunand 2005). Statistical analysis of these experimental data was performed for fundamental frequencies of RC shear wall structures and the results are compared with existing relationships. Only building height or number of stories has a statistical relevancy to estimate the resonance frequency but the variability associated to the proposed relationships is large. Moreover, we compared the elastic part of capacity curves of RC and masonry buildings used in the European Risk-UE method for vulnerability assessment with the experimental frequencies. The variability is also large and the curves may not be consistent with French existing buildings.     

南极特别管理区现状分析与未来展望

南极特别管理区(ASMAs)是南极环境保护体系的重要组成部分,目前其覆盖面积已超过5万平方公里。通过整理和分析南极条约秘书处(ATS)公布的南极特别管理区的相关资料,简要概述南极特别管理区的现状、管理计划(草案)的编写及其申报程序。目前,已设立的南极特别管理区共有7个,分别由15个南极条约协商国(ATCPs)和1个南极条约缔约国(ATSs)通过单独或联合的方式提出,其中以美国和澳大利亚为主。我国作为提出国之一,开展了南极特别管理区的设置工作。另外,本文针对目前南极特别管理区存在的问题提出初步建议,并简要分析其未来的发展动向。