渤海、黄海、东海M2潮汐潮流的三维数值模拟

利用建立的一种新的半隐半显三维数值格式,将渤海、黄海、东海作为一个整体,采用球面坐标系下的三维潮波方程组,考虑了引潮力的作用,数值模拟了渤海、黄海、东海的M₂分潮的潮汐与潮流,结果较好地体现了渤海、黄海、东海M₂分潮的特征.通过比较65个验潮站的实测值与计算值,所得计算结果的振幅差平均为6.4cm,相角差为6.1°,计算与实测符合良好.本文给出的问潮图与Fang于1986年给出的实测占数值综合结果基本一致.对选取的47个测流站,比较了各层潮流调和常数Ucosζ、Usinζ、Vcosη、Vsinη的计算值与实测值的偏差,偏差绝对值的平均在2.6～4.9cm/s之间.并比较分析了潮流的垂直结构,所得结果与实测符合较好.首次揭示出回流点的水平位置不随深度变化这一特性.最后给出了M₂分潮的潮能消耗.     

The Surface Rupture Zone and Coseismic Deformation Produced by the Yutian Ms7.3 Earthquake of 21 March 2008, Xinjiang

On 21 March 2008, a Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Quickbird, Yutian County, Xinjiang. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of this shock and its coseismic deformation field. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite images as well as differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (D-InSAR) data from the satellite Envisat SAR, coupled with seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 40?km-long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and simple structure with 1–3-m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5?m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks are seen, exhibiting remarkable extension. The coseismic deformation affected a large area 100×100?km2. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. Because of the big deformation gradients near the seismogenic fault, no interference fringes are seen on images, and what can be determined is a vertical displacement 70?cm or more between the two fault walls. According to the epicenter and differential occurrence times from the National Earthquake Information Center, China Earthquake Network Center, Harvard and USGS, it is suggested that the seismic fault ruptured from north to south.     

部分不确定性平差模型的迭代算法

为提高部分不确定性平差模型的解算效率,直接采用迭代算法进行求解。讨论了迭代不收敛时的解算方法。算例表明,该部分不确定性平差模型的迭代算法是可行的,解算效率更高、稳定性更好。     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Niño indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Niño1+2, Niño3.4, Niño3, and Niño4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1–12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1–12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1–12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models: one using both DMI and Niño indices and the other using only Niño indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Niño indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Niño indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1–12 month lead time (the persisted prediction). Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months). The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1–12 month lead time are also examined.     

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我国第一颗业务型地球静止气象卫星FY-2C

20 0 4年 1 0月 1 9日 ,我国在西昌卫星发射中心成功发射了第一颗业务型地球静止轨道气象卫星FY 2C ,该星定位于 1 0 5°E赤道上空 ,工作状况良好。文章介绍了中国FY 2C卫星携带仪器的技术特点以及地面应用系统。     

钙锰矿的研究进展

钙锰矿是土壤、沉积物及海洋锰结核中常见的以3×3结构为主的一族大隧道构造氧化锰矿物.隧道中存在水分子和阳离子,形貌以片状、针状或纤维状为主.水钠锰矿→布塞尔矿→钙锰矿的转化是钙锰矿形成的一个重要途径.这种转化在常压条件下受体系温度、pH、共存粘土矿物、转化时间以及前驱物布塞尔矿亚结构特点,如层间交换离子类型、浓度、以水合离子形态或与MnO6八面体空穴上方键合的强弱、结晶度、Mn(Ⅲ)的含量与迁移特点等因素影响.钙锰矿独特的结构使其所具有的离子吸附、氧化与催化特性及分子级的隧道空间等有望作为特异的分子筛、二次电池正极材料、有机反应催化荆等在环境科学和材料科学等领域具有广阔的应用前景.     

盘锦湿地芦苇群落土壤碱解氮及溶解性有机碳季节动态

基于2005年4～10月盘锦湿地芦苇群落土壤不同土层土壤碱解氮及溶解性有机碳的观测资料,分析了盘锦湿地芦苇群落土壤碱解氮与溶解性有机碳(DOC)的季节动态。结果表明:不同土层碱解氮、溶解性有机碳的季节动态并不相同。0～10 cm土层碱解氮与DOC季节动态相似,6月土壤碱解氮与DOC含量均最高,分别为244.86 mg/kg和13.16 mg/L。8月碱解氮含量最低,为139.18 mg/kg;9月DOC含量最低。10～20 cm土层DOC的季节性动态变化与表土具有相似性,峰值均出现在6月,谷值出现在9月;10～20 cm土层碱解氮最低值出现在6月,与0～10 cm土层不同。20～30 cm土层内,4～7月DOC几乎无变化,8月DOC含量最低,9月增加;4～5月碱解氮波动较大,5月降到102 mg/kg,6月增加到151 mg/kg。研究表明,盘锦湿地芦苇群落土壤微生物活性与凋落物分解对DOC及碱解氮的季节动态有很大的影响,同时温度、降水量及冻融也影响着DOC及碱解氮的季节动态。     

计算水位分布的标准差－偏度－峰度方法(BPF法)

海面水位各种高度的出现频率在海洋工程和航运中具有重要意义。为了得出其分布，最直接和可靠的方法当然是利用长期实测资料进行统计。但是在需要获得水位分布的地点往往没有足够长期的资料，这时就必须采用其他的方法来推算。 我国近海引起水位升降的主要因素是天文潮，故利用潮汐调和常数推算天文潮并考虑到到非天文因素的水位变化是一个比较可靠的办法。这个方法比较准确，但需要进行潮汐预报，计算量比较大。本文提出的方法所涉及的计算量很小，但仍能获得较好的效果。这个方法的基本出发点是：由于不同地点海面水位分布有一定的共性，水位分布和它的数字特征之间有密切的关系，而数字特征又决定于潮汐调和常数及非天文水位标准差，因而可利用潮汐调和常数及非天文水位标准差求得数字特征，然后进一步得出水位分布。这个方法所用到的数字特征为标准差、偏度和峰度，它们汉语拼音的第一个字母分别为B,P和F，故这个方法被称为BPF 法。 1977年我们提出 BPF 法时，主要应用于海图深度基准面，应用中的有关问题将另文讨论。     

一种二维和三维嵌套海洋流体动力学数值模式及其在北部湾潮汐和潮流数值模拟中的应用

研究设计了一种二维和三维嵌套、外模态和内模态分离的水动力学数值模式,既可用于潮汐,也可用于风暴潮的数值计算。该模型对全部海区进行二维计算,对其中重点关心的海区同时进行三维计算。在三维计算区域,采用了内、外模态既分离又耦合的计算技术。数值格式采用全部交错的网格结构,三维模型中垂直方向采用σ-坐标代替通常的z-坐标,垂直涡动粘性系数由混合长度理论确定,垂直粘性项采用隐式差分格式。作为算例,本文对南海北部湾潮波进行了细网格的数值计算。