Observations of intraseasonal variability in the Sunda Strait throughflow

Using velocity profiles observed by bottom-mounted ADCPs, we identified strong intraseasonal variability in the Sunda Strait throughflow. This intraseasonal variability, with typical periods of 20–40 days and the strongest energy occurring in the boreal spring, can reverse the Sunda Strait throughflow. Further analysis showed this intraseasonal variability to be closely related to local zonal wind and the sea level gradient along the strait. These observations confirm for the first time the existence of Kelvin-wave-like signals in the Sunda Strait, propagating from the equatorial Indian Ocean. This study also provides new insights into the effects of Kelvin waves on the Sunda Strait throughflow.     

澳大利亚奥特韦盆地油气地质特征与资源潜力

从区域构造背景和地层沉积特征描述了澳大利亚奥特韦盆地的基础地质特征;从烃源岩、储集层和圈闭三个方面论述了盆地的油气成藏条件;从平面和层系上总结了盆地的油气分布特征。截止到2008年底,该盆地累计生产天然气124.5×10^8m^3,经济和次经济意义的证实储量为石油2×10^6t,天然气350×10^8m^3。对盆地的资源潜力进行评价,并对有利的远景区进行预测。     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Nio indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST,over the period of January 1982 to October 2003,the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI),Nio1+2,Nio3.4,Nio3,and Nio4 indices with time lags of 10,3,6,5,and 6 months,respectively.Thus,a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1-12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated,using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992.The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1-12 months.The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1-12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent.The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years,in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years.We designed the two forecast models:one using both DMI and Nio indices and the other using only Nio indices without DMI,and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases.The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas.By turning off the DMI,the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS,suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area.The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI,while using both of Nio indices and DMI,the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months,suggesting that the Nio indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS.Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1-12 month lead time (the persisted prediction).Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction,especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months).The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy,i.e.,the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas,when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level.For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts,the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2.The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1-12 month lead time are also examined.     

全球变暖背景下鹤壁市夏玉米生育期气候条件变化

通过对鹤壁市43 a夏玉米生育期间气象要素线性趋势以及其不同年代的均值、变异系数(C·V)、距平变化分析,揭示了在全球气候变暖背景下鹤壁市夏玉米生育期间气候条件的变化规律:活动积温和降水量分别在1993年和1977年前后发生气候突变,降水量由增加趋势转变为减少趋势,活动积温由减少趋势转变为增加趋势;全生育期间及各生育期的活动积温均呈缓慢增多趋势;播种期和苗期发生初夏旱几率高于全省平均水平,影响到玉米的适时播种和出苗;全生育期间日照时数的年际变化与各生育期间的日照时数变化趋势均呈现出随年份逐渐减少趋势,但仍属气候正常振动.     

土壤微生物生物量研究进展

综述了近年来国内外土壤微生物量包括微生物碳、微生物氮、微生物磷和微生物硫及其与碳、氮、磷和硫循环方面的研究进展,着重论述了土壤微生物量C,N,P,S在土壤养分转化循环中的重要性,并就种植、轮作、施肥等农业措施和土壤微生物量与环境的关系包括重金属和农药污染对土壤微生物量的影响进行了探讨。同时,就今后土壤微生物量的研究重点提出了展望。     

储层宏观非均质性研究——以吉林油田大208区黑帝庙油层为例

储层非均质性是影响油气藏中油、气、水渗流及油气采收率的主要内因。进行储层非均质研究,对查明油藏剩余油分布、采取合理注采措施、提高采收率显得十分必要。以吉林油田大208区黑帝庙油层三角洲前缘亚相储层为例,采用隔夹层识别对比、沉积微相分析、地质统计学系数和劳伦兹系数方法分析了层间、层内和平面非均质性。研究表明:黑帝庙油层发育3套稳定隔层,据此可划分为3套开发层系;夹层在各单砂体中比较发育,应将夹层分割的注采井归为不同注采井网;非均质性受沉积微相影响明显,水下分流河道和河口坝微相的非均质性最强;地质统计学参数和劳伦兹系数研究表明,黑帝庙油层10个单砂体均为极强的非均质性,统计学参数往往偏离强非均质标准甚远,而劳伦兹参数值分布于0～1间,更能直观定量的表现出储层宏观非均质性强弱。     

我国潮汐潮流区域预报的发展

简要回顾了我国潮汐潮流区域预报的发展过程。1959—1964年期间按前苏联杜瓦宁方法编制的永久潮流表是第一代预报产品,该产品提供了我国近海若干站点5 m层潮流预报资料。1970—1978年期间按方国洪提出的方法而研制的永久预报图表集是第二代预报产品,提供了基本上覆盖我国近海的多层潮流预报资料;这两代产品均以纸质图表为载体。2005—2006年期间方国洪等研制了第三代预报产品,覆盖了我国近海各海区,分辨率达到5′×5′,垂向10层,并可自动内插到任意点和任意水层。同时介绍了三代产品的研发过程及基本原理。     

广西非气象参数Tm模型研究

通过分析广西4个探空站资料，结合GGOS Atmosphere格网Tm数据，建立随高程增大的温度递减率模型。根据温度递减率模型分别采用反距离加权法、双线性插值法、新反距离加权法和新双线性插值法计算探空站Tm，通过分析插值误差建立广西非气象参数Tm模型，并与Bevis模型、中国东部模型、广西模型进行比较。结果表明，温度递减率模型的Tm插值精度相对其他3种模型有比较明显的提升，4种方法的平均绝对误差（MAE）和均方根误差（RMSE）在1~2 K之间；广西非气象参数Tm模型的插值精度得到进一步提高，百色站的MAE约为2 K，其余站点的MAE和RMSE均在1 K左右，能满足可降水量反演的精度要求。     

港珠澳大桥岛桥结合跨箱梁波浪力试验研究

通过三维物理模型系列试验,对港珠澳大桥工程西人工岛、岛桥结合跨进行模拟。试验测量了不同波浪入射角度、波高、波周期以及梁底净高等影响因子下的岛桥结合跨箱梁所受的浮托力和水平力,分析了受力随波陡、相对梁底作用高度以及波浪入射角度的变化规律。研究表明,在一定条件下箱梁浮托力和水平力,随波陡的增大而减小,随梁底相对作用高度的增加而增大,波浪入射方向的影响主要表现为与箱梁沿波浪传播方向的有效长度相关。由于岛桥结合跨的特殊性,改进的Douglass公式并不适用于岛桥结合跨箱梁受力的计算。通过主要影响因子的量纲分析,建立针对岛桥结合跨箱梁浮托力和水平力的计算公式。研究成果可为今后同类工程以及数值模拟提供借鉴与参考。