长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.     

海南省大广坝水电站集水区降水特征及人工增雨潜力分析

本文分析了海南省大广坝水电站集水区降水分布特征并研究了人工增雨的潜力。结果表明,大广坝水电站集水区降水年际差异较大,常年无法满负荷发电,影响了水电站效益的正常发挥。4～7月集水区实施人工增雨的潜力和成云致雨的条件较好,通过人工增雨的手段可以有效提高水电站的发电效益。     

长江三角洲DY03孔沉积物元素地球化学及其物源示踪意义

长江三角洲地区是寻找长江历史演化信息的关键地区之一。本文通过DY03孔长时间序列元素地球化学的研究,利用元素地球化学特征示踪物源变化,初步揭示长江三角洲地区物源变化的总体情况,分析讨论长江三角洲地区沉积记录对长江贯通的指示意义。研究发现,在晚上新世31Ma左右时期,钻孔中指示物源变化的 K₂O/Al₂O₃, SiO₂/Al₂O₃, Zr/Ti,Th/Sc,Th/Co,Th/Cr,Nb/Co等元素比值都发生由高到低的显著变化,而3.1Ma之后元素比值变化不大。化学风化A-CN-K图解也进一步说明在3.1Ma前后,沉积物具有不同的化学风化趋势。以上特征说明,在晚上新世时期本区物源曾发生重大变化,表现为沉积物来源由近源转变为远源,源岩由酸性长英质矿物为主转变为基性矿物为主。这次物源变化很可能说明最早在晚上新世长江上游物质已经通过长江三峡输送到现代长江三角洲地区。     

Holocene environmental change inferred from the loess–palaeosol sequences adjacent to the floodplain of the Yellow River, China

Chinese loess deposits are generally considered to be the product of dust storms and dust falls from the central Asia arid zones that were transported across China by the northwesterly continental monsoon. In contrast, the Zhengzhou Loess found southeast of the Loess Plateau, adjacent to the floodplain of the Yellow River, records a different eolian regime and dust source. The Zhengzhou Loess was investigated by field observations, measurements of magnetic susceptibility, particle-size distribution, loss-on-ignition, CaCO₃ and chemical contents. Both field observations and the laboratory results indicate that, during the last glacial, the Zhengzhou Loess was supplied by two different eolian regimes and dust sources, one was from the fresh flood deposits of the Yellow River driven by the northeast winds from the low-lying floodplain, and the other was from the dust storms and dust falls that traveled across the Loess Plateau driven by the northwesterly continental monsoon from the central Asian arid lands. The early Holocene, 11,500–8500 a BP, was a transition during the change in eolian regime and dust source because of the weakened northwesterly monsoon along with the global climatic amelioration. Following the retreat of the northwesterly monsoon from the onset of the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum at 8500 a BP, dust supply from the drifting sand zone on the Yellow River floodplain became dominant because of the intensified strength of the northeast winds from the Bohai Sea. From 3100 a BP onwards, climatic aridity and extensive human disturbance have resulted in intensive eolian processes causing the incursion of the drifting sand into the Zhengzhou Loess zone. These results show that loess accumulation is more complex than traditionally assumed. The origin of loess deposits elsewhere outside the Loess Plateau may be related to dust sources derived from alluvial sediments of major river systems.     

Modeling the temperature of the polar mesopause region: Part II—Intra-seasonal monthly oscillations

Measurements show that the polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) can vary, in the zonal mean, with periods around 1 month [Bailey et al., 2005. Observations of polar mesospheric clouds by the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D13203, doi:10.1029/2004JD005422]. This observation has been the impetus for the present paper, where we describe corresponding temperature oscillations generated by the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). Our numerical results are taken from the 3D and 2D versions of the NSM, which produce inter-annual and long-term variations in the polar mesopause region, as discussed in the accompanying paper (Part I). In the NSM, the intra-seasonal temperature variations with periods around 2 months are generated by the meridional winds that in turn are accelerated by the momentum deposition from small-scale gravity waves (GW) propagating north/south. The wave-driven dynamical process underlying the oscillations is intrinsically non-linear like that generating the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis demonstrates that the seasonal annual and semi-annual variations excite the oscillation frequencies through non-linear cascading.     

江淮气旋发生发展和暴雨过程及有关预报问题的研究

本文就一次典型过程作为例子,分析了江淮气旋发生发展和暴雨过程的特点,指出有利于江淮气旋发生发展的高空天气形势,地面一些中尺度低压和暴雨核的演变与气旋发展的互相联系。发现气旋区内可存在若干个中尺度低压,这些中尺度低压可先于或后于暴雨核生成而出现,并可增强、减弱或合并。文中计算了潜热释放的加热对涡度制造的贡献,指出潜热加热对气旋发展起着极为重要的作用。作者对于影响气旋发展的因子进行了讨论,并对如何根据湿度场、流场和降水分布(或卫星云图)特征来预报江淮气旋提出建议。     

改革开放以来珠江三角洲基层非正规土地利用实践与制度创新——以东莞市长安镇为例

21世纪初,在对非正规经济研究的二元主义、新马克思主义和新自由主义理论解释基础上,出现了批判管治主义理论,重点关注国家权力与制度对非正规性产生的影响。基于该视角,以东莞市长安镇为例,运用质性研究方法,分析了改革开放先行区的珠江三角洲,其基层非正规土地利用实践的产生、表现及其与制度创新之间的关系。研究发现：改革开放以来,在国家土地制度缺失、正规土地管理制度颁布和实施阶段,以及省级政府主导的土地制度创新阶段,非正规土地利用实践经历了被政府鼓励、包容和默许及正规化的过程。部分非正规土地利用实践成为制度创新的根源。土地制度的演变经历了由乡村基层“自下而上”式向地方政府“自上而下”式推动的转变,在演变过程中具有非正规性特征,并服务于各个时期的城市与经济发展需求。未来的研究中,应更多的关注“自下而上”的制度创新和地方实践。     

北祁连块状硫化物矿床中矿石和主要矿石矿物地球化学特征

对北祁连山白银矿田和郭密寺矿田中主要矿床的矿石和矿石矿物组分特征研究表明，由于各矿田的成矿条件和地球化学背景存在差异，造成不同矿床的矿石和矿石矿物元素组合各具特色。但作为同一类型矿床，它们之间又有很多共性，特别是同一矿田内各矿床的地球化学特征具有相似性和过渡性，反映了成矿条件变化的趋势。     

Experimental Studies on Extraction of Modified Suction Caisson (MSC) in Sand by Reverse Pumping Water

A suction caisson can be extracted by applying reverse pumping water,which cannot be regarded as the reverse process of installation because of the dramatically different soil?structure interaction behavior.Model tests were first carried out in this study to investigate the extraction behavior of the modified suction caisson(MSC)and the regular suction caisson(RSC)in sand by reverse pumping water.The effects of the installation ways(suction-assisted or jacking installation)and the reverse pumping rate on the variations of the over-pressure resulting form reverse pumping water were investigated.It was found that neither the RSC nor the MSC can be fully extracted from sand.When the maximum extraction displacement is obtained,the hydraulic gradient of the sand in the suction caisson reaches the critical value,leading to seepage failure.In addition,the maximum extraction displacement decreases with the increasing reverse pumping rate.Under the same reverse pumping rate,the final extraction displacements for the RSC and MSC installed by suction are lower than those for the RSC and MSC installed by jacking.The final extraction displacement of MSC is almost equal to that of the RSC with the same internal compartment length.Based on the force equilibrium,a method of estimating the maximum extraction displacement is proposed.It has been proved that the proposed method can rationally predict the maximum extraction displacement and the corresponding over-pressure.     

煌斑岩—硫化物熔体液态不混溶作用的高温高压实验研究

本文以云南老王寨金矿区煌斑岩和黄铁矿为初始物,在1.5～3.0GPa、1162～1560℃条件下进行了煌斑岩—硫化物熔体液态不混溶作用实验。结果表明,煌斑岩硫化物熔体的液态不混溶作用可能发生于岩浆演化的早期（高压条件）,但如有硫存在,在岩浆演化的各个阶段（高压条件→低压条件）均可能出现煌斑岩硫化物熔体的液态不混溶作用;与煌斑岩熔体分离的硫化物熔体在温度场、压力场中作定向运移,逐渐聚集于相对低温、低压区;由于硫化物熔体的密度相对较大,因而与煌斑岩熔体之间出现明显的分层现象。