Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation.     

Empirical Formula of Shear Strength of Rock Fractures Based on 3D Morphology Parameters

The prime objective of this work is to provide a reference to predict the peak shear strength of rock fractures. The paper studied some shear properties of rock fractures and proposed an empirical formula for the peak shear strength of rock fractures based on 3D morphology parameters. The rock fractures were induced in cylindrical sandstone and marble specimens by means of indirect tension. A rock direct shear apparatus (RDS-200) was adopted to conduct direct shear tests on five groups of rock fractures under different levels of normal load. Before the direct shear test, 3D morphology parameters of rock fracture surfaces were obtained using a 3D optical scanner. By analyses of direct shear test data, the relationships between peak shear strength, peak shear displacement, peak dilatancy angle, residual friction coefficient and peak normal stress were found. According to the evolution trends of peak shear strength and peak dilatancy angle along with the normal stress, an empirical formula was proposed to predict the peak shear strength of rock fractures in both sliding and cutting failure modes considering the 3D morphology parameters of rock fracture surfaces. The empirical formula could be commonly used for different types (sandstone and marble) and grain sizes (powder-grained, fine-grained, medium-grained and coarse-grained) of rock fractures.     

无线电波透视快速勘探技术及其应用

无线电波透视技术作为探测煤层工作面内地质构造的一种较为成熟方法,具有快速、轻便、透距大、成本低等优点,但也存在现场观测系统单一、耗时长、接收操作员劳动强度大等缺点。通过对无线电波透视技术现场观测系统的改进,提出"一发双收"数据采集方法及数据校正处理技术。由于"一发双收"的数据是由两个接收机同时接收,因此其数据必须经过校正才能使用。在数据采集中:一是要求两台接收机在一条测线同一地点的场强值差别很小;二是要求做到数据采集中至少存在一个重合接收点,且其重合点数据比值应在0.98～1.02范围内。"一发双收"数据使用无线电波透视CT软件系统处理软件进行拼接,若数据曲线出现阶梯跳跃,则应把低值(或者高值)乘以该重合点数据的比值以保证曲线平滑。在张集煤矿1114(3)工作面探测实践中,使用该技术探测画出其工作面存在三个主要异常区:1#异常区在退尺20~100m处为断层影响区;2#异常区退尺480~560m处为断层影响区;3#异常区在退尺1200~1300m处为断层和薄煤影响区。目前该工作面探测区已经回采,探测结果与实际回采验证结果比较吻合,说明一发双收的探测方式可行。     

Failure Pressure Analysis of Corroded Moderate-to-High Strength Pipelines

Based on the elastic-plastic, large-deformation finite element method, burst capacity of steel pipeline with longitudinal corrosion defect subjected to internal pressure is studied. The appropriate stress-based criterion is used to predict the failure pressure of finite element model of corroded pipeline under internal pressure. By considering the pipe steel grades and geometries of corrosion defects, a series of finite element analyses is conducted. The effects of corrosion depth, length and width on burst capacity are also discussed. A specific failure pressure solution for the assessment of corrosion defects in moderate-to-high strength pipeline is proposed on the base of numerical results. The failure pressures predicted by the proposed method are in better agreement with the experimental results than the results by the other methods.     

活血消栓胶囊治疗气虚血瘀型中风后遗症30例临床观察

目的：观察活血消栓胶囊治疗气虚血瘀型中风后遗症的临床疗效。方法：将气虚血瘀型中风后遗症患者60 例随机分为治疗组和对照组,每组各30 例。2组均予中风后遗症常规康复治疗,在此基础上治疗组加以活血消栓胶囊治疗,对照组加以阿司匹林肠溶片、吡拉西坦片治疗。观察2组综合疗效及治疗第15、30、45天神经功能缺损程度（NIHSS）评分以及不良反应。结果：总有效率治疗组为88.67%（26/30）,对照组为76.67%（23/30）,2组比较,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）;治疗组治疗第15、30、45天的NIHSS评分均明显低于治疗前,且降低幅度大于对照组,差异均有统计学意义（P<0.05）。在药物不良反应表现中治疗组优于对照组。结论：活血消栓胶囊治疗气虚血瘀型中风后遗症能明显改善患者生活自理能力及语言功能,值得临床推广应用。     

黄河中上游能源基地区岩溶大泉衰减原因、变化趋势及其防治对策

黄河中上游地区,自黄河青铜峡,经内蒙准格尔、山西、陕西两省至河南西部,为我国最重要的以煤炭资源为主的能源基地。随着能源基地的建设和开发,区域岩溶地下水水位连年持续下降,岩溶泉水流量衰减,引起了一系列环境地质问题,如水质恶化、生态退化等。本文从能源基地岩溶泉流量衰减问题入手,研究了能源基地区岩溶泉水流量衰减问题,提出了开展水土保持工作、合理控制地下水的开采、搞好矿坑水的综合利用及污水处理资源化等相应的防治对策。      

河北大庙铁矿床黑云母40Ar/39Ar年龄及其地质意义

文章以野外观察为基础确定了致矿侵入体,以岩相学特征确立了测年样品的代表性。在此基础上,选取大庙铁矿大乌素沟矿区浸染状铁矿石中的黑云母进行了40Ar/39Ar年龄测定,坪年龄为(395.8±3.7) Ma,反等时线年龄为(395.6±4.0) Ma(2σ; MSWD=0.9; n=8)。因此,大庙铁矿及其致矿苏长岩的形成年龄约为396 Ma,相当于中泥盆世,而不是前人所认为的元古宙。新的测年结果与区域上近年来陆续识别出来的泥盆纪侵入岩类形成年龄一致,不仅表明华北克拉通的改造过程至少从泥盆纪就已经开始,而且暗示华北克拉通北缘仍有寻找其他“大庙式铁矿”的潜力。同时,文章提出,用成岩年龄作为成矿年龄时,需要有可靠的地质学和岩相学证据。 关键词：大庙式铁矿;斜长岩;苏长岩;40Ar/39Ar定年;成矿年代;华北克拉通     

河南省境内淮河南北气候变化的小麦适应度比较

适应度是气候变化下适应性研究的关键环节,本文提出气候变化适应度的概念及其定量评价方法,并对淮河南北的小麦适应度进行比较分析。结果表明,目前河南省境内的南北气候分界线并非淮河干流区,而是由原位置北移约300 km处的最大支流地带,冬小麦的适应度空间变化大致围绕该分界线呈经向分布。淮河分界线以南地域适应度为62.57%,高于以北地域的56.81%,研究结果表明,欲达到河南农业可持续发展,距离完全适应仍有较大空间需要人为调控,且北部相比较南部其调控压力更大。在年际变化上,随着20世纪80年代气候的突变,各地小麦温度适应度骤增,水分适应度骤减,之后随着气候的日趋稳定,各气候要素的适应度不断上升,但在21世纪初上升速度下降,甚至有降低趋势,表明气候变暖的环境对小麦的负面影响日渐突出。     

乌鲁木齐遥测地震台网监测能力综合评价

以台网的布愕和设备配置为依据，针对承担珠任务的设计指标，详细地介绍了乌鲁木齐遥，是地震台网的基本功能以及资料分析方法；结合考核运行期间记录地地震，分别对微震，强震和远震的监测能力以及适用范围做出评价，同时讨论了误差和存在的问题。     

2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震地表同震位移分布特征

沿长约 4 2 6km的 2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西MS8 1地震地表破裂带共获得 2 91个点的地表同震水平左旋位移数据 ,并在其中 1 1 1个点获得了垂直位移数据。该地震总体以左旋水平位移为主 ,兼具一定的垂直位移。最大地表左旋水平位移值可达 6 4m ,平均水平位移约为 2 7m ,绝大多数测点的垂直位移均 <1m。地表水平位移沿主破裂带走向位移梯度变化于 1 0 - 1～ 1 0 - 4之间 ,这一起伏变化可能起因于野外测量误差、沿主破裂带岩性或松散沉积物厚度的变化、地表破裂带几何结构的不均匀性、地表破裂走向的变化、不同破裂段在昆仑山口西 8 1级地震之前的地震中滑动量的起伏变化 ,以及大量非脆性变形、次级破裂的存在等。水平位移沿主破裂带的长波长 (数十公里至数百公里 )起伏变化较有规律 ,在布喀达坂峰以东表现为分别以 5个水平位移峰值为中心而有规律地起伏变化。这5个位移峰值分别对应于不同的次级地震地表破裂段。各破裂段水平位移峰值均向阶区或拐点逐渐衰减 ,不同地表破裂段位移峰值向两侧衰减的速率是不同的 ,这种位移梯度的不对称分布可能指示了地震破裂的扩展方向。上述位移分布特征真实地反映了地表可见脆