Reconstruction of Middle to Late Quaternary sea level using submerged speleothems from the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula

We examined 14 subaerially deposited speleothems retrieved from submerged caves in the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico). These speleothems grew during the Middle to Late Quaternary and were dated by ²³⁰Th-U techniques to provide upper depth limits for past sea levels. We report the first relative sea-level limits for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 11 and 6, and present new evidence for sea-level oscillations during MIS 5 and early MIS 1. For the latter periods, the origin of growth interruptions is evaluated by combining petrographic methods with trace element analyses. The MIS 5c sea-level highstand probably occurred between 103.94 ± 0.58 ka and 96.82 ± 0.42 ka and must have exceeded -10.8 m (relative to present-day local sea level). The minimum average rate of sea-level fall over a 9.4 ka-long period during the MIS 5e/5d transition is calculated from stalagmite and published coral data at 1.74 ± 0.37 m/ka. For the early Holocene, previous discrepancies with respect to a potential multimetre oscillation of local sea level were found to be challenging to reconcile with the existing speleothem data from the area.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.     

On the performance of a new bivariate pseudo Pareto distribution with application to drought data

A new bivariate pseudo Pareto distribution is proposed, and its distributional characteristics are investigated. The parameters of this distribution are estimated by the moment-, the maximum likelihood- and the Bayesian method. Point estimators of the parameters are presented for different sample sizes. Asymptotic confidence intervals are constructed and the parameter modeling the dependency between two variables is checked. The performance of the different estimation methods is investigated by using the bootstrap method. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to estimate the Bayesian posterior distribution for different sample sizes. For illustrative purposes, a real set of drought data is investigated.