Wintertime Cyclone Activity and Its Relation to Precipitation over China

The authors examined the variability in wintertime cyclone activity and storm tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational data.Two apparent modes of variability were assumed for the cyclone activity and storm tracks.The first mode describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the mid-1980s,whereas the second mode describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East Asia.The storm tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late 1960s.The possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm tracks are also explored.It is shown that wintertime precipitation,which has increased since the mid-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast China.The enhancement may be caused by the first mode of variability of storm tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation may be linked to the second mode of the storm track variability.     

Tjörnes fracture zone. New and old seismic evidences for the link between the North Iceland rift zone and the Mid-Atlantic ridge

The Tjörnes facture zone (TFZ) connects the EW extension of the Mid-Atlantic ridge north of Iceland to the extension of the North volcanic zone (NVZ) of Iceland. Earthquakes up to magnitude 7 (Ms) can occur in TFZ, volcanic eruptions have been observed and large crustal deformations are expected in similar way as have been observed in the NVZ. Most of the zone is below ocean, which limits the historical information and geological observations. For studying the dynamics of the zone we must rely on interpretation and modelling based on seismic observations, especially on microearthquake observations for the last 10 years. In this paper we demonstrate how microearthquakes can be applied to map the details of the plate boundary, and how this information can be applied to find epicenters and fault planes of large historical earthquakes, also how seismic information can be applied in dynamic modelling and to infer spatial and temporal interplay in activity, and to enhance hazard assessment.     

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO₂-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO₂-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.     

Radio occultation experiments planned for pioneer and mariner missions to the outer planets

Spacecraft radio occultation measurements planned for outer planet missions may yield profiles in height of atmospheric refractivity and microwave loss above the super-refractive regions of the giant planets. In a planetary ionosphere, the refractivity determines the electron number density distribution. At lower levels, the loss and the refractivity may be used to study the density, pressure, temperature and composition of the atmosphere. In order to maximize the scientific yield of outer planet occultation experiments, it is necessary to consider the effects of atmospheric refraction, multipath propagation, navigation errors and spacecraft accelerations in the design of the radio system and the spacecraft attitude control system.     

On the response of a free span pipeline subjected to ocean currents

A mechanistic study is performed to examine the coupling between the in-line and the cross-flow motion of a cylindrical structure subjected to current forces. The structure represents a free span pipeline but concerns marine risers as well.A time domain model is formulated in which the in-line and cross-flow deflections are coupled through the axial tension which in turn is computed from the pipeline prolongation at any time. This formulation introduces time dependent tensions and non-linearity into the problem.Preliminary validation of the model simulations vs. physical test data are carried out for one specific case to ensure that the sag and the in-line deflection are correctly resolved by the model. Using this as the initial condition a series of calculations are carried out to examine cross-flow induced deflections induced by an in-line prescribed deflection and vice versa. Finally, an idealistic simulation of flow induced vibration is presented.The model simulations demonstrate that the coupling varies with the mode shape and with which component it is initially introduced into. However, it is evident that the coupling effects may be significant and not negligible.     

Statistical testing of a new testate amoeba‐based transfer function for water‐table depth reconstruction on ombrotrophic peatlands in north‐eastern Canada and Maine,United States

Proxy reconstructions of climatic parameters developed using transfer functions are central to the testing of many palaeoclimatic hypotheses on Holocene timescales. However, recent work shows that the mathematical models underpinning many existing transfer functions are susceptible to spatial autocorrelation, clustered training set design and the uneven sampling of environmental gradients. This may result in over‐optimistic performance statistics or, in extreme cases, a lack of predictive power. A new testate amoeba‐based transfer function is presented that fully incorporates the new recommended statistical tests to address these issues. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, the most commonly applied method in recent studies to assess model performance, produced over‐optimistic performance statistics for all models tested. However, the preferred model, developed using weighted averaging with tolerance downweighting, retained a predictive capacity equivalent to other published models even when less optimistic performance statistics were chosen. Application of the new statistical tests in the development of transfer functions provides a more thorough assessment of performance and greater confidence in reconstructions based on them. Only when the wider research community have sufficient confidence in transfer function‐based proxy reconstructions will they be commonly used in data comparison and palaeoclimate modelling studies of broader scientific relevance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.