Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo,Sri Lanka

The prediction of high extremes in sustained water level is very important for coastal engineering design and planning. The recorded historical water level datasets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, are not long enough for the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water levels, such as 50-, 100- and 200-year extreme water levels. In this study, the integrated ADCIRC + SWAN hydrodynamic model and Monte Carlo model have been applied to predict extreme water level in Colombo station of Sri Lanka. The meteorological driving forces of cyclone storm surge are simulated by Monte Carlo stochastic model. The calibrated ADCIRC model with SWAN wave model is used to simulate the potential surge setups with the driving forces generated by Monte Carlo model. By ranking the maximum high water levels in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels for the desired return period is proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50, 100 and 200 years are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.50 m correspondingly. The estimated extreme high water levels are recommended for engineering design and planning.     

Circular Polarization in a Solar Filament

Integrating 26 624 pairs of video frames, the authors have mapped the circular polarization in an active-region filament against the solar disk by using a traditional magnetograph working at the Hβ line. This filament, offset the disk center, appeared at the boundary of three decayed active regions. It was quiet and away from any strong enhanced network. The mapped circular polarization in the filament has an average polarization degree of 1.1×10⁻³ with a measurement precision of 4×10⁻⁴. The mapping of circular polarization in a filament may provide a supplementary diagnosis of the filament magnetic field, in addition to the mapping of linear polarization via the Hanle effect. However, the interpretation of the circular polarization requires treatment of the full quantum problem of Zeeman and non-Zeeman effects of Stokes line profiles.     

Solar Trans-equatorial Activity

We have found that solar flares in NOAA active region (AR) 10696 were often associated with large-scale trans-equatorial activities. These trans-equatorial activities appeared to be very common and manifest themselves through i) the formation and eruption of trans-equatorial loops (TELs), ii) the formation and eruption of trans-equatorial filaments (TEFs), and iii) the trans-equatorial brightening (TEB) in the chromosphere. It is determined that the TEF was formed following episodic plasma ejecta from flares occurring in the AR. The TEF eruption was associated with a trans-equatorial flare. All flares in the AR that were accompanied by trans-equatorial activities were associated with halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It was noticed that one or several major flares in the AR were followed by an increase of brightness and nonpotentiality of a TEL. These coupled events had a lifetime of more than 12 hours. In addition their associated halo CMEs always had a positive acceleration, indicating prolonged magnetic reconnections in the outer corona at high altitudes.     

Spatial and Temporal Scales of Coronal Magnetic Restructuring in the Development of Coronal Mass Ejections

It has been commonly accepted that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) result from the restructuring or reconfiguring of large-scale coronal magnetic fields. In this paper, we analyzed four CME events using Nançay Radioheliograph (NRH) images and the experiments onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft to understand the coronal restructuring leading to CME initiation. We investigated the onset, duration, and position of the radio emissions in relation to EUV dimming and the inferred CME onset. It has been identified that the early CME development on the solar disk is characterized by a series of distinct radio bursts. These nonthermal radio sources appeared in phase with coronal dimming shown by SOHO-EIT images and are located within the EUV dimming or ongoing dimming regions. Three time scales are identified: the duration, the separation of individual radio bursts, and the overall time scale of all of the nonthermal sources. They fall in the ranges of approximately tens of seconds to three minutes, one to three minutes, and 15 – 20 minutes, respectively. The individual radio emission seems to shift and expand at the speed of the fast magnetoacoustic waves in the corona; while the nonthermal radio emissions as a whole appear episodically to correspond to the successive coronal restructuring. If we define the triggering speed by dividing the overall spatial scale by the temporal scale of all the radio bursts, then the triggering speed falls in the range of 300 – 400 km s^?1. This implies that the general process of coronal restructuring and reconfiguring takes place at a speed slower than either the Alvfenic or acoustic speed in the corona. This is a type of speed of “topology waves,” i.e., the speed of successive topology changes from closed to open field configuration.     

2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震较强余震的应力触发

20 0 0年 1月 15日在云南省姚安县发生了MS6 5级地震 ,震后发生了 7次M≥ 4 0级的较强余震。本文计算了姚安MS6 5级主震后 ,主震和前震在 7次强余震破裂面上诱发的库仑破裂应力变化 (ΔCFS)。结果表明 ,有5次较强余震发生在库仑破裂应力增加 (ΔCFS >0 )的地区 ,增加的范围为 10 -2 ～ 10 -1MPa。并对结果的可靠性进行了检验 ,发现在前震和主震的破裂面长宽度和位错量估计值分别取上下限的 16种组合情况下 ,5次较强余震破裂面上的库仑破裂应力变化都为正 ,只是数值在 10 -3 ～ 10 -1MPa之间变化 ,而另 2次较强余震破裂面上的库仑破裂应力变化正负值发生变化。结果表明 ,主震和前震位错产生的库仑破裂应力变化是姚安MS6 5级地震较强余震活动的重要原因。     

青藏高原隆升速率对冻土层形成影响的数值模拟

青藏高原隆升速率是研究者们关注的问题。由于海拔升高引起地表温度降低,形成了现今的青藏高原冻土层。抬升速率不同,冻土层的形成历史和现今状态也会不同,因此,冻土层内可能包含了高原抬升的有关信息。本文用有限元方法计算了同一地点分别用2Ma时间和5Ma时间由1000m抬升到5000m的两种抬升速率下的情景。计算表明快速抬升和慢速抬升形成的冻土层厚度会有一定的差别,慢速抬升时有更长的热传导时间,形成的冻土层略厚,冻土层年龄较老。所以存在通过现今冻土层厚度、温度随深度变化、以及冻土年龄等资料,并在测得冻土准确参数的条件下,有助于估测青藏高原隆升的时间和过程。     

边界层流场和地形特征对青岛奥帆赛场午后海风影响的研究

奥帆赛是奥运会唯一以自然风为动力的竞赛项目,而北京奥运会期间的8月,青岛的风速是一年中最小的,因风速过小致使帆船竞赛地法进行的情况时有发生。鉴于青岛的弱风与海陆风的发展状况关系密切,文中分析8、9月青岛奥帆赛和残奥帆赛期间竞赛海域海陆风的发展条件,并用高分辨率数值模式对相关个例进行了模拟试验研究。结果发现,地面背景气流、边界层中上部径向气流和周围地形、海陆分布等边界层特征,都对竞赛海域海陆风的发展产生影响。其中晴天时,地面西风、弱的北风和东风、均压场环境以及边界层中上部弱的北风条件等,都是竞赛海域海风发展的有利条件;而地面南风(无论大小)、强的北风以及边界层中上部较强的南风和很强的北风等,则是海风发展的不利条件。此外,当地面为东北风时,位于竞赛海域上游的崂山对地面风速有阻挡减弱的作用,从而有利于海风的发展;地面为南风时,崂山和浮山等地形强迫气流在竞赛海域附近向左右分为两支,胶州湾和崂山湾侧向海风(东南风)急流发展又加大了这种分流作用,导致竞赛海域常减小为弱风,使比赛无法进行。以上结论在2008年奥帆赛和残奥帆赛气象保障预报服务中得到运用。     

基于改进二维离散希尔伯特变换的图像边缘检测方法

提出一种新的基于二维希尔伯特变换的边缘检测方法。对于频域信号而言,希尔伯特变换不改变信号的幅值,而仅仅改变其相位,即负频率的相位作+90°相移,而正频率作-90°相移。经由傅里叶变换后,边缘特征呈极值状态,因此本文利用二维离散希尔伯特变换实现边缘检测。由于二维离散希尔伯特变换结果具有方向性,提出利用两个呈正交性的二维离散希尔伯特变换的幅度平方和来检测图像边缘特征。此外将高斯核函数引入到希尔伯特变换中,以减少图像噪声对检测结果的影响,并根据PSNR(峰值信噪比)来确定最佳参数σ,从而得到理想的边缘检测效果。为验证该方法的检测结果,将所提方法与传统边缘检测算子的检测效果进行了比较分析,并将该方法运用于卫星遥感图像中,结果表明该方法可以有效地应用于边缘检测工作中。     

张家口市万全煤田煤层地下气化开发条件研究

根据万全煤田地质构造、水文地质、地层岩性、煤类与煤质、煤层(组)厚度与夹矸的具体分布特点，对万全煤田煤层地下气化开发条件及其前景进行了较为全面的分析和研究，对今后本区煤炭资源开发利用具有一定的指导意义。     

A Review of the Seismicity in 2000

1. A SURVEY OF THE GLOBAL SEISMICITYAccording to the recording of the seismic network of China, 20 large earthquakes with Ms ≥7.0 occurred in 2000 (Table 1 ), the maximum magnitude of which is 7.8, they are: three Ms = 7.8 earthquakes on June 5 in the south of the Sumatra Island, Indonesia, on June 18 in India Ocean and on November 16 in Solomon Islands (Fig. 1). 　　……