Selection of Momentum Variables for a Three-Dimensional Variational Analysis

Three choices of control variables for meteorological variational analysis (3DVAR or 4DVAR) are associated with horizontal wind: (1) streamfunction and velocity potential, (2) eastward and northward velocity, and (3) vorticity and divergence. This study shows theoretical and numerical differences of these variables in practical 3DVAR data assimilation through statistical analysis and numerical experiments. This paper demonstrates that (a) streamfunction and velocity potential could potentially introduce analysis errors; (b) A 3DVAR using velocity or vorticity and divergence provides a natural scale dependent influence radius in addition to the covariance; (c) for a regional analysis, streamfunction and velocity potential are retrieved from the background velocity field with Neumann boundary condition. Improper boundary conditions could result in further analysis errors; (d) a variational data assimilation or an inverse problem using derivatives as control variables yields smoother analyses, for example, a 3DVAR using vorticity and divergence as controls yields smoother wind analyses than those analyses obtained by a 3DVAR using either velocity or streamfunction/velocity potential as control variables; and (e) statistical errors of higher order derivatives of variables are more independent, e.g., the statistical correlation between U and V is smaller than the one between streamfunction and velocity potential, and thus the variables in higher derivatives are more appropriate for a variational system when a cross-correlation between variables is neglected for efficiency or other reasons. In summary, eastward and northward velocity, or vorticity and divergence are preferable control variables for variational systems and the former is more attractive because of its numerical efficiency. Numerical experiments are presented using analytic functions and real atmospheric observations.     

海南琼海加积井水位对远大震的同震响应特征研究

In this study,we analyze the co-seismic response of water levels in the Jiaji well to strong earthquakes(MS≥7.8) from 2001 to 2010 at an epicentral distance less than 8000km.We investigated the co-seismic variation form of water levels,and analyzed the relationship between the amplitude of water level variation and the magnitude and the epicentral distance.We then checked the seismic wave phases when the changes of water level occurred.It was shown that:(1) the water level’s co-seismic response is mainly characterized by escalation with no oscillation;(2) the amplitude of water level change has a certain connection with epicentral distance and magnitude;(3) co-seismic response of water levels in the Jiaji well shows a certain directivity;(4) most of the co-seismic responses were caused by surface waves,and some by long-period S waves.     

龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段晚第四纪活动性特征及强震复发间隔

野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂(南支)北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂.断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8-3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a.断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定.利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是:6.32％、0.08％、0.05％;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82％.     

Gravity field and tectonic features of Block L2 in the Lamu basin,Kenya

A gravity survey on the scale of 1: 250 000 was carried out in Block L2 located in the Lamu basin of south‐east Kenya in order to study tectonic features and find out favourable petroleum prospects in the block. This paper, through data processing and synthetic interpretation of the measured gravity data in the block, discusses characteristics of the gravity field and their geological implications, determines the fault system and the basement depth, analyses features of the main strata, divides structure units and predicts favourable petroleum zones. In the block, the regional gravity anomaly is mainly caused by the inclined Moho surface that rises in the east and subsides in the west topographically and the Bouguer gravity anomaly primarily reflects the superimposition of the gravity effect derived from the Moho surface and the basement relief. Two groups of faults extending NW (NWW) and NE (NEE) respectively are dominant in the block and their activities resulted in the framework of east‐west zoning and south‐north blocking. The basement depth greatly changes in an alternative high and low pattern. The Permian‐Triassic, Jurassic and Tertiary strata are extensively developed, while the Cretaceous is only developed in the east of the block. Structurally, the block can be divided into five units, of which the Tana sag shows excellent source‐reservoir‐seal associations and is a favourable target for future petroleum exploration.     

Dispersion function of Rayleigh waves in porous layered half-space system

Rayleigh wave exploration is based on an elastic layered half-space model. If practical formations contain porous layers, these layers need to be simplified as an elastic medium. We studied the effects of this simplification on the results of Rayleigh wave exploration. Using a half-space model with coexisting porous and elastic layers, we derived the dispersion functions of Rayleigh waves in a porous layered half-space system with porous layers at different depths, and the problem of transferring variables to matrices of different orders is solved. To solve the significant digit overflow in the multiplication of transfer matrices, we propose a simple, effective method. Results suggest that dispersion curves differ in a lowfrequency region when a porous layer is at the surface; otherwise, the difference is small.     

Newmark design spectra considering earthquake magnitudes and site categories

Newmark design spectra have been implemented in many building codes, especially in building codes for critical structures. Previous studies show that Newmark design spectra exhibit lower amplitudes at high frequencies and larger amplitudes at low frequencies in comparison with spectra developed by statistical methods. To resolve this problem, this study considers three suites of ground motions recorded at three types of sites. Using these ground motions, influences of the shear-wave velocity, earthquake magnitudes, source-to-site distances on the ratios of ground motion parameters are studied, and spectrum amplification factors are statistically calculated. Spectral bounds for combinations of three site categories and two cases of earthquake magnitudes are estimated. Site design spectrum coefficients for the three site categories considering earthquake magnitudes are established. The problems of Newmark design spectra could be resolved by using the site design spectrum coefficients to modify the spectral values of Newmark design spectra in the acceleration sensitive, velocity sensitive, and displacement sensitive regions.     

Aerosol properties over an urban site in central East China derived from ground sun-photometer measurements

Sun-photometer measurements at Hefei, an urban site located in central East China, were examined to investigate the variations of aerosol loading and optical properties. It is found that aerosol optical thickness (AOT) keeps higher in winter/spring and gets relatively lower in summer/autumn. The large AOT in winter is caused by anthropogenic sulfate/nitrate aerosols, while in spring dust particles elevate the background aerosol loading and the excessive fine-mode particles eventually lead to severe pollution. There is a dramatic decline of AOT during summer, with monthly averaged AOT reaching the maximum in June and soon the minimum in August. Meanwhile, aerosol size decreases consistently and single scattering albedo (SSA) reaches its minimum in July. During summertime large-sized particles play a key role to change the air from clean to mild-pollution situation, while the presence of massive small-sized particles makes the air being even more polluted. These complicated summer patterns are possibly related to the three key processes that are active in the high temperature/humidity environment concentrating on sulfate/nitrate aerosols, i.e., gas-to-particle transformation, hygroscopic growth, and wet scavenging. Regardless of season, the increase of SSA with increasing AOT occurs across the visible and near-infrared bands, suggesting the dominant negative/cooling effect with the elevated aerosol loading. The SSA spectra under varying AOT monotonically decrease with wavelength. The relatively large slope arises in summer, reinforcing the dominance of sulfate/nitrate aerosols that induce severe pollution in summer season around this city.     

A study of parameter uncertainties causing uncertainties in modeling a grassland ecosystem using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method

In this paper, we apply the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter (CNOP-P) to study parameter uncertainties that lead to the stability (maintenance or degradation) of a grassland ecosystem. The maintenance of the grassland ecosystem refers to the unchanged or increased quantity of living biomass and wilted biomass in the ecosystem, and the degradation of the grassland ecosystem refers to the reduction in the quantity of living biomass and wilted biomass or its transformation into a desert ecosystem. Based on a theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model, 32 physical model parameters are selected for numerical experiments. Two types of parameter uncertainties could be obtained. The first type of parameter uncertainty is the linear combination of each parameter uncertainty that is computed using the CNOP-P method. The second type is the parameter uncertainty from multi-parameter optimization using the CNOP-P method. The results show that for the 32 model parameters, at a given optimization time and with greater parameter uncertainty, the patterns of the two types of parameter uncertainties are different. The different patterns represent physical processes of soil wetness. This implies that the variations in soil wetness (surface layer and root zone) are the primary reasons for uncertainty in the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystems, especially for the soil moisture of the surface layer. The above results show that the CNOP-P method is a useful tool for discussing the abovementioned problems.     

Research on progressive failure process of Baishuihe landslide based on Monte Carlo model

To the progressive landslide, development of the internal deformation and failure situation can’t be accurately reflected by the overall stability of coefficients and failure probability. But this problem can be solved by utilizing the principle of progressive failure by slices. Taking the warning area of Baishuihe landslide as an example, 5 days accumulated rainfall in different reappearing period is computed by Gumbel model. The failure probability of each slice is calculated by progressive failure principle, which is based on Monte Carlo model. The following results can be revealed through calculation: Overall stability and failure probability can’t reflect real situation of Baishuihe landslide warning area. Through building the calculation of progressive failure model of each slice, the stability of each part in the Baishuihe landslide warning area is quite different. Unstable region mainly lies in vicinity of the middle and posterior warning area. The front of the warning area remains stable. Deformation characteristics of the warning area are consistent with the investigation report. The scope of unstable area increased gradually with rainfall and the decline of reservoir water. Under 5 day’s accumulated rainfall of 50 years, the poor stable and unstable region reached 75 %, there is a large possibility of local deformation slip. Under the joint action of rainfall and reservoir water level, the warning area of Baishuihe landslide shows a progressive failure mode from top to bottom.     

Effects of different spatial distributions of physical soil crusts on runoff and erosion on the Loess Plateau in China

The response of runoff and erosion to soil crusts has been extensively investigated in recent decades. However, there have been few attempts to look at the effects of spatial configuration of different soil crusts on erosion processes. Here we investigated the effects of different spatial distributions of physical soil crusts on runoff and erosion in the semi‐arid Loess Plateau region. Soil boxes (1.5 m long × 0.2 m wide) were set to a slope of 17.6% (10°) and simulated rainfall of 120 mm h^?1 (60 minutes). The runoff generation and erosion rates were determined for three crust area ratios (depositional crust for 20%, 33%, and 50% of the total slope) and five spatial distribution patterns (depositional crust on the lower, lower‐middle, middle, mid‐upper, and upper slope) of soil crusts. The reduction in sediment loss (‘sediment reduction’) was calculated to evaluate the effects of different spatial distributions of soil crusts on erosion. Sediment yield was influenced by the area ratio and spatial position of different soil crusts. The runoff rate reached a steady state after an initial trend of unsteadily increasing with increasing rainfall duration. Sediment yield was controlled by detachment limitation and then transport limitation under rainfall. The shifting time of erosion from a transport to detachment‐limiting regime decreased with increasing area of depositional crust. No significant differences were observed in the total runoff among treatments, while the total sediment yield varied under different spatial distributions. At the same area ratio, total sediment yield was the largest when the depositional crust was on the upper slope, and it was smallest when the crust was deposited on the lower slope. The sediment reduction of structural crust (42.5–66.5%) was greater than that of depositional crust (16.7–34.3%). These results provide a mechanistic understanding of how different spatial distributions of soil crusts affect runoff and sediment production. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.