Investigating soil moisture feedbacks on precipitation with tests of Granger causality

Granger causality (GC) is used in the econometrics literature to identify the presence of one- and two-way coupling between terms in noisy multivariate dynamical systems. Here we test for the presence of GC to identify a soil moisture (S) feedback on precipitation (P) using data from Illinois. In this framework S is said to Granger cause P if F(P_t|Ω_t−Δt)≠F(P_t|Ω_t−Δt−S_t−Δt) where F denotes the conditional distribution of P, Ω_t−Δt represents the set of all knowledge available at time t−Δt, and Ω_t−Δt−S_t−Δt represents all knowledge except S. Critical for land–atmosphere interaction research is that Ω_t−Δt includes all past information on P as well as S. Therefore that part of the relation between past soil moisture and current precipitation which results from precipitation autocorrelation and soil water balance will be accounted for and not attributed to causality. Tests for GC usually specify all relevant variables in a coupled vector autoregressive (VAR) model and then calculate the significance level of decreased predictability as various coupling coefficients are omitted. But because the data (daily precipitation and soil moisture) are distinctly non-Gaussian, we avoid using a VAR and instead express the daily precipitation events as a Markov model. We then test whether the probability of storm occurrence, conditioned on past information on precipitation, changes with information on soil moisture. Past information on precipitation is expressed both as the occurrence of previous day precipitation (to account for storm-scale persistence) and as a simple soil moisture-like precipitation-wetness index derived solely from precipitation (to account for seasonal-scale persistence). In this way only those fluctuations in moisture not attributable to past fluctuations in precipitation (e.g., those due to temperature) can influence the outcome of the test. The null hypothesis (no moisture influence) is evaluated by comparing observed changes in storm probability to Monte-Carlo simulated differences generated with unconditional occurrence probabilities. The null hypothesis is not rejected (p>0.5) suggesting that contrary to recently published results, insufficient evidence exists to support an influence of soil moisture on precipitation in Illinois.     

Chemical characteristics of atmospheric bulk deposition in a semi-rural area of the <Emphasis Type="Bold">Po Valley</Emphasis> (Italy)

This study provides an analysis of a five-year time series chemical composition of the bulk deposition (2009–2013), collected within a farm surrounded by industrial and urban settlements in a semi-rural area of the Po Valley, with the aim of characterizing potential emission sources affecting precipitation composition at the site. Most monitoring efforts in this region, recognized as one of the most polluted in the world both due to the intense industrialisation and urbanisation as well as to frequent air stagnation conditions, are presently devoted more to gaseous and particulate pollutants than to precipitation chemistry. The bulk deposition samples were very concentrated in chemical species, both acidic and alkaline, high compared to other polluted sites in the world and to locations in the same district. The mean ions concentrations (in μeq l^?1) are: NO₃ ^? (243) > SO₄ ^2? (220) > PO₄ ^3? (176) > Cl^? (153) > NO₂ ^? (29) > F^? (2.6); NH₄ ⁺ (504) > Ca²⁺ (489) > K⁺ (151) > Na⁺ (127) > Mg²⁺ (127). pH data shows a trend toward slightly alkaline conditions attributed to the large presence of ammonium and crustal elements, in spite of high concentrations of nitrates and sulphates. The relevant concentrations of Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ further suggests that these alkaline conditions might be due to the correspondingly significant concentrations of carbonates/bicarbonates in our dataset. While back-trajectories analysis suggests the stronger importance of local resuspension over long-range transport, statistical analyses on ion composition highlight the key role exerted by agricultural activity, especially in the case of NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺ and PO₄ ^3? (especially linked to fertilisation practices and soil resuspension due to mechanical operations). Apart from Na⁺ and Cl^? ions which correlate well as expected, indicating their likely common origin from marine salt, the identification of the origin of the other ions is very complex due to the contribution of diverse local sources, such as industrial and residential settlements.     

The altitudinal temperature lapse rates applied to high elevation rockfalls studies in the Western European Alps

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Temperature is one of the most important aspects of mountain climates. The relationships between air temperature and rockfalls at high-elevation sites are very...     

Characterizing and Predicting Traffic Accidents in Extreme Weather Environments

Motorists are vulnerable to extreme weather events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change throughout the world. Traffic accidents are conceptualized in this article as the result of a systemic failure that includes human, vehicular, and environmental factors. The snowstorm and concurrent accidents that occurred in the Northeastern United States on 26 January 2011 are used as a case study. Traffic accident data for Fairfax County, Virginia, are supplemented with Doppler radar and additional weather data to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of the accidents resulting from this major snowstorm event. A kernel density smoothing method is implemented to identify and predict patterns of accident locations within this urban area over time. The predictive capability of this model increases over time with increasing accidents. Models such as these can be used by emergency responders to identify, plan for, and mitigate areas that are more susceptible to increased risk resulting from extreme weather events.     

Hydrological connectivity of alluvial Andean valleys: a groundwater/surface-water interaction case study in Ecuador

The Andean region is characterized by important intramontane alluvial and glacial valleys; a typical example is the Tarqui alluvial plain, Ecuador. Such valley plains are densely populated and/or very attractive for urban and infrastructural development. Their aquifers offer opportunities for the required water resources. Groundwater/surface-water (GW–SW) interaction generally entails recharge to or discharge from the aquifer, dependent on the hydraulic connection between surface water and groundwater. Since GW–SW interaction in Andean catchments has hardly been addressed, the objectives of this study are to investigate GW–SW interaction in the Tarqui alluvial plain and to understand the role of the morphology of the alluvial valley in the hydrological response and in the hydrological connection between hillslopes and the aquifers in the valley floor. This study is based on extensive field measurements, groundwater-flow modelling and the application of temperature as a groundwater tracer. Results show that the morphological conditions of a valley influence GW–SW interaction. Gaining and losing river sections are observed in narrow and wide alluvial valley sections, respectively. Modelling shows a strong hydrological connectivity between the hillslopes and the alluvial valley; up to 92 % of recharge of the alluvial deposits originates from lateral flow from the hillslopes. The alluvial plain forms a buffer or transition zone for the river as it sustains a gradual flow from the hills to the river. Future land-use planning and development should include concepts discussed in this study, such as hydrological connectivity, in order to better evaluate impact assessments on water resources and aquatic ecosystems.     

Kinematic significance of mingling-rolling structures in lava flows: a case study from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

 A basaltic andesite lava flow from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) is composed of two different magmas. Magma A (51 vol.% of crystals) has a dacitic glass composition, and magma B (18 vol.% of crystals), a basaltic glass composition. Magma B is hosted in A and consists of sub-spherical enclaves and boudin-like, banding and rolling structures (RS). Four types of RS have been recognized: σ–type;δ–type; complex σ-δ–types and transitional structures between sub-spherical enclaves and rolling structures. An analysis of the RS has been performed in order to reconstruct the flow kinematics and the mechanism of flow emplacement. Rolling structures have been selected in three sites located at different distances from the vent. In all sites most RS show the same sense of shear. Kinematic analysis of RS allows the degree of flow non-coaxiality to be determined. The non-coaxiality is expressed by the kinematic vorticity number Wk, a measure of the ratio Sr between pure shear strain rate and simple shear strain rate. The values of Wk calculated from the measured shapes of microscopic RS increase with increasing distance from the vent, from approximately 0.5 to 0.9. Results of the structural analysis reveal that the RS formed during the early–intermediate stage of flow emplacement. They represent originally sub-spherical enclaves deformed at low shear strain. At higher strain, RS deformed to give boudin-like and stretched banding structures. Results of the kinematic analysis suggest that high viscosity lava flows are heterogeneous non-ideal shear flows in which the degree of non-coaxiality increases with the distance from the vent. In the vent area, deformation is intermediate between simple shear and pure shear. Farther from the vent, deformation approaches ideal simple shear. Lateral extension processes occur only in the near-vent zone, where they develop in response to the lateral push of magma extruded from the vent. Lateral shortening processes develop in the distal zone and record the gravity-driven movement of the lava. The lava flow advanced by two main mechanisms, lateral translation and rolling motion. Lateral translation equals rolling near the vent, while rolling motion prevailed in the distal zones. Received: 6 November 1997 / Accepted: 29 November 1997     

Mechanisms for ground-surface fracturing and incipient slope failure associated with the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna, Italy: analysis of ephemeral field data

During the July–August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna development of extensional fractures/faults and grabens accompanied magma intrusion and subsequent volcanic activity. During the first days of the eruption, we performed an analysis of attitude, displacement and propagation of fractures and faults exposed on the ground surface in two sites, Torre del Filosofo and Valle del Leone, located along the same fracture system in the region surrounding the Valle del Bove depression on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Fractures and faults formed as the consequence of a shallow intruding dyke system that fed the several volcanic centres developed along the fracture system. The investigated sites differ in slope attitude and in geometrical relationships between fractures and slopes. In particular, the fracture system propagated parallel to the gentle slope (<7° dip) in the Torre del Filosofo area, and perpendicular to the steep slope (25° dip) in the Valle del Leone area. In the Torre del Filosofo area, slight graben subsidence and horizontal extension of the ground surface by about 3 m were recorded. In the Valle del Leone area, extensional faulting forming a larger and deeper graben with horizontal extension of the ground surface by about 10 m was recorded. For the Valle del Leone area, we assessed a downhill dip of 14° for the graben master fault at the structural level beneath the graben where the fault dip shallows. These results suggest that dyke intrusion at Mount Etna, and particularly in the region surrounding the Valle del Bove depression, may be at the origin of slope failure and subsequent slumps where boundary conditions, i.e. geometry of dyke, slope dip and initial shear stress, amongst others, favour incipient failures.     

Biochemical indicators of contaminant exposure in spotted pigfish (Orthopristis ruber) caught at three bays of Rio de Janeiro coast

The initial sampling in the Marine Monitoring Program (MOMAM), coordinated by the Ministry of Marine Affairs (IEAPM), was performed along the southeast coast of Brazil. Orthopristis ruber samples were collected at Guanabara, Sepetiba and Ilha Grande Bays. Microsomal CYP1A levels and cytosolic cholinesterase (ChE), catalase (CAT) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities were measured in the liver of these fish according to established procedures. CAT activity and CYP1A content were significantly higher (P < or = 0.05) in fish caught at Guanabara Bay, which might be due to higher levels of peroxisome proliferators and Ah receptor agonists, respectively, at this site compared to the other sites. Also, lower GST activity was observed in fish from this site, which may possibly be related to the presence of oxidative-stress inducing compounds.     

Simulating Oxygen Intrusion into Highly Heterogeneous Fractured Media Using High Performance Computing

Fractured crystalline rocks are under consideration by several countries as host formations for high-level nuclear waste repositories. The redox evolution in these host rock formations is an important issue for the stability and safety of these disposal sites. If, for example, during a glaciation/deglaciation event, oxygen-rich glacial meltwater penetrates to the depth of the planned repository, some of the engineered barriers would be adversely affected. Moreover, oxidizing conditions would increase the solubility and mobility of many radionuclides. Reactive transport simulations, which are typically used to assess the redox buffering capacity of these host rock formations, are computationally demanding, and thus, calculations for the evaluation of oxygen penetration are usually carried out over simplified geometries and the heterogeneity of the site, both physical (e.g., variability in the groundwater flow field and the kinematic porosity) and mineralogical (e.g., variability in the abundance of Fe(II)-bearing minerals), is usually represented in a simplified fashion. Here, it is shown how a recently developed numerical framework, combined with high performance computing technologies, allows the full geometrical, physical and mineralogical complexity of the site under study to be efficiently included in these types of reactive transport calculations. A synthetically generated realistic three-dimensional fractured medium is used to assess oxygen penetration patterns and their dependence on both the hydrogeological conditions and the availability of Fe(II)-bearing minerals. The results of the calculations point out the significant influence of both physical and mineralogical heterogeneity on the oxygen penetration patterns, thus highlighting the importance of a model parameterisation consistent with the site complexity.