U–Pb LA-SF-ICP-MS zircon geochronology of the Serbo-Macedonian Massif, Greece: palaeotectonic constraints for Gondwana-derived terranes in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Pirgadikia Terrane in northern Greece forms tectonic inliers within the Vardar suture zone bordering the Serbo-Macedonian Massif to the southwest. It comprises Cadomian basement rocks of volcanic-arc origin and very mature quartz-rich metasedimentary rocks. U–Pb laser ablation sector-field inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses of detrital zircons from the latter reveal a marked input from a Cadomian–Pan-African source with minor contribution from Mesoproterozoic, Palaeoproterozoic and Archaean sources. The metasedimentary rocks are correlated with Ordovician overlap sequences at the northern margin of Gondwana on the basis of their maturity and zircon age spectra. The Pirgadikia Terrane can be best interpreted as a peri-Gondwana terrane of Avalonian origin, which was situated close to the Cadomian terranes in the Late Neoproterozoic–Early Palaeozoic, very much like the Istanbul Terrane. The second unit investigated is the Vertiskos Terrane, which constitutes the major part of the Serbo-Macedonian Massif in Greece. It comprises predominantly igneous rocks of Silurian age and minor metasedimentary rocks of unknown age and provenance. U–Pb analyses of detrital zircons from a garnetiferous mica schist of the Vertiskos Terrane indicate derivation from 550 to 1,150 Ma-old source rocks with a major Cadomian peak. This, combined with minor input of >1,950 Ma-old zircons and the absence of ages between ca. 1.2 and 1.7 Ga suggests a NW Africa source. The protolith age of the garnetiferous mica schist is presumably Early Ordovician. One sample of garnet-bearing biotite gneiss, interpreted as meta-igneous rock, comprises predominantly subhedral zircons of igneous origin with late Middle Ordovician to Silurian ages. We suggest that the rock association of the Vertiskos Terrane is part of an ancient active-margin succession of the Hun superterrane, comparable to successions of the Austro- and Intra-Alpine Terranes. The new data of this study provide evidence of occurrences of Avalonia- and Armorica-derived terranes in the Eastern Mediterranean and moreover help to clarify palaeogeographic reconstructions for the peri-Gondwana realm in the Early Palaeozoic.     

Uncertainty quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of slow slope movements

Most landslides occurring in Italy consist of shallow-translational movements, which involve fine, essentially clayey material. They are usually characterized by low velocities, typically of few centimeters per year. The main triggering factor is hydrologic, since movements are usually strictly connected to groundwater level fluctuations. This slow and periodical trend can be interpreted by a viscous soil response, and in order to catch the actual kinematics of the soil mass behavior, a dynamic analysis should be adopted. This paper discusses the case of the Alverà mudslide, located in the Northern Alps (Italy), for which a very detailed and almost 9-year-long monitoring database, including displacements and groundwater levels records, is available. A well-defined dynamic viscoplastic model, capable of returning a displacement prediction and a mobilized shear strength angle estimate from a groundwater level input, was considered. A first deterministic calibration proved the ability of the model to reproduce the mudslide overall displacements trend if a suitable reduction of the mobilized angle _0\varphi ^{\prime }_{0} is allowed. Then, an uncertainty quantification analysis was performed by measuring the model parameters variability, and all parameters could be represented using a probability density function and a correlation structure. As a consequence, it was possible to define a degree of uncertainty for model predictions, so that an assessment of the model reliability was obtained. The final outcome is believed to represent an important advancement in relation to hazard assessment and for future landslide risk management.     

Seasonal temperatures over Italy and their relationship with low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

An analysis of Italian seasonal temperatures from 1961 to 2006 was carried out, using homogenized data from 49 synoptic stations well distributed throughout Italy. The results show remarkable differences among seasons. Stationarity characterizes winter series, except for Northern Italy (where a warming trend from 1961 is identified); a positive trend over the entire period is recognized for spring series. Summer series are marked by a negative trend until 1981 and by a positive trend afterwards; finally, autumn series show a warming starting from 1970. The relationship between seasonal temperatures and four teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, Scandinavian Pattern and Arctic Oscillation) influencing European climate was investigated through Spearman rank correlation and composites. Among the results, the strong linear correlation with the East Atlantic Pattern in all seasons but autumn is remarkable; moreover, the explained variance varies between 31.9% and 50.4% (leaving out autumn). Besides these four atmospheric patterns the role of other factors (e.g. soil moisture) is not dealt with, but their importance and the need for more investigation is pointed out.     

Carboxylic acid distribution patterns of temperate C3 and C4 crops

Agricultural grasses cover a major part of the land surface in temperate agro-ecosystems and contribute significantly to the formation of soil organic matter. Crop-derived lipids are assumed to be responsible for fast carbon turnover in soils. Differences in lipid distribution patterns between crops following C₃ and C₄ photosynthesis pathways have rarely been described, but could be useful for source apportionment of crop-derived input into soils or sediments. The distribution of long chain n-carboxylic acids (C₂₂, C₂₄, C₂₆) reveals significant differences between crop plants following either the C₃ or the C₄ photosynthetic carbon fixation pathway. The plant compartments leaves, stems and roots of C₄ plants contain relatively large proportions (> 40%) of n-C₂₄ carboxylic acid when compared to C₃ plants. These reveal larger relative proportions of n-C₂₂ and n-C₂₆ acids, whose relative abundance is subject to change between different plant compartments and during the growing season. The carboxylic acid ratio [CAR = n-C₂₄/(n-C₂₂ + n-C₂₆) carboxylic acids] provides distinct ratios for C₄ (> 0.67) and C₃ crops (< 0.67) and can thus be used as a molecular marker for the differentiation of crop plant biomass. In combination with the bulk stable carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) the CAR can be used as a tool for the estimation of the C₄ derived carbon proportion in soils or sediments.     

Explosive volcanism (VEI 6) without caldera formation: insight from Huaynaputina volcano, southern Peru

Through examination of the vent region of Volcán Huaynaputina, Peru, we address why some major explosive eruptions do not produce an equivalent caldera at the eruption site. Here, in 1600, more than 11 km³ DRE (VEI 6) were erupted in three stages without developing a volumetrically equivalent caldera. Fieldwork and analysis of aerial photographs reveal evidence for cryptic collapse in the form of two small subsidence structures. The first is a small non-coherent collapse that is superimposed on a cored-out vent. This structure is delimited by a partial ring of steep faults estimated at 0.85 by 0.95 km. Collapse was non-coherent with an inwardly tilted terrace in the north and a southern sector broken up along a pre-existing local fault. Displacement was variable along this fault, but subsidence of approximately 70 m was found and caused the formation of restricted extensional gashes in the periphery. The second subsidence structure developed at the margin of a dome; the structure has a diameter of 0.56 km and crosscuts the non-coherent collapse structure. Subsidence of the dome occurred along a series of up to seven concentric listric faults that together accommodate approximately 14 m of subsidence. Both subsidence structures total 0.043 km³ in volume, and are much smaller than the 11 km³ of erupted magma. Crosscutting relationships show that subsidence occurred during stages II and III when ∼2 km³ was erupted and not during the main plinian eruption of stage I (8.8 km³). The mismatch in erupted volume vs. subsidence volume is the result of a complex plumbing system. The stage I magma that constitutes the bulk of the erupted volume is thought to originate from a ∼20-km-deep regional reservoir based on petrological constraints supported by seismic data. The underpressure resulting from the extraction of a relatively small fraction of magma from the deep reservoir was not sufficient enough to trigger collapse at the surface, but the eruption left a 0.56-km diameter cored-out vent in which a dome was emplaced at the end of stage II. Petrologic evidence suggests that the stage I magma interacted with and remobilized a shallow crystal mush (∼4–6 km) that erupted during stage II and III. As the crystal mush erupted from the shallow reservoir, depressurization led to incremental subsidence of the non-coherent collapse structure. As the stage III eruption waned, local pressure release caused subsidence of the dome. Our findings highlight the importance of a connected magma reservoir, the complexity of the plumbing system, and the pattern of underpressure in controlling the nature of collapse during explosive eruptions. Huaynaputina shows that some major explosive eruptions are not always associated with caldera collapse. Editorial responsibility: J Stix     

Application of Landsat-7 satellite data and a DEM for the quantification of thermokarst-affected terrain types in the periglacial Lena–Anabar coastal lowland

Extensive parts of Arctic permafrost-dominated lowlands were affected by large-scale permafrost degradation, mainly through Holocene thermokarst activity. The effect of thermokarst is nowadays observed in most periglacial lowlands of the Arctic. Since permafrost degradation is a consequence as well as a significant factor of global climate change, it is necessary to develop efficient methods for the quantification of its past and current magnitude. We developed a procedure for the quantification of periglacial lowland terrain types with a focus on degradation features and applied it to the Cape Mamontov Klyk area in the western Laptev Sea region. Our terrain classification approach was based on a combination of geospatial datasets, including a supervised maximum likelihood classification applied to Landsat-7 ETM+ data and digital elevation data. Thirteen final terrain surface classes were extracted and subsequently characterized in terms of relevance to thermokarst and degradation of ice-rich deposits. 78% of the investigated area was estimated to be affected by permafrost degradation. The overall classification accuracy was 79%. Thermokarst did not develop evenly on the coastal plain, as indicated by the increasingly dense coverage of thermokarst-related areas from south to north. This regionally focused procedure can be extended to other areas to provide the highly detailed periglacial terrain mapping capabilities currently lacking in global-scale permafrost datasets.     

Shrimp U–Pb zircon dating and palynology of bentonitic layers from the Permian Irati Formation, Paraná Basin, Brazil

This paper presents the first SHRIMP zircon age data from bentonitic ash fall layers intercalated with the Irati sedimentary rocks, as well as palynofossils retrieved from the PETROBRAS-Six mine, Paraná State, southern Brazil. The Permian Irati Formation is one the most important oil source horizons within the Paraná Basin, and consists mainly of siltstones, gray claystones, as well as organic-rich claystones intercalated with limestones. Zircon morphology based on cathodoluminescence images includes two different populations: a dominant population of euhedral, prismatic, elongate to acicular grains which are most likely related to an ash fall volcanism; and a population of rounded to large prismatic grains, that were interpreted as detrital grains. SHRIMP analysis performed on the euhedral and prismatic grains revealed an age of ca. 278.4 ± 2.2 Ma (7 points with 95% confidence) interpreted as the crystallization age of the volcanic eruption. Based on this new dating, the Irati Formation should be placed on the Lower Permian (Cisuralian), Artinskian in age, modifying substantially the traditional ages previously attributed to this unit. The palynofossils from this level include key species of the Lueckisporites virkkiae Zone (such as L. virkkiae, L. densicorpus, L. stenotaeniatus, Weylandites lucifer, Alisporites splendens). Typical species of this zone also occur in African and other South American (Argentina) Permian strata, allowing stratigraphical correlations. The origin of the ash falls is not clearly defined. It may be related either to calc-alkaline arc magmatism associated to the Sanrafaelica Orogeny (275 and 250 Ma) or to bimodal volcanic events associated to an early intracontinental rift developed within southwestern Gondwana at ca. 278 My. The dating of this unit is significative to calibrate biostratigraphic schemes along the Paraná Basin, as well as equivalent zones in Gondwana areas, mainly in its Occidental portion.     

Resonant Fly-by Missions to Near Earth Asteroids

The authors here propose a mission scenario, aimed at close exploration of a Near-Earth Asteroid, exploiting low-V resonant trajectories. These trajectories allow repeated fly-bys of a chosen target. A selection procedure, which has been used to find some interesting mission opportunities in the 2005-2015 time frame, is described and the corresponding detailed mission profiles are derived, using an indirect optimization method.     

Seismic risk assessment for the mega-city of Istanbul: Ductility, strength and maximum interstory drift demands

This study investigates the seismic demands due to the catastrophic 1999 M_w=7.4 Kocaeli and the M_w=7.1 Duzce earthquakes. The inelastic response spectra for the Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes are investigated for systems with known strength and ductility. An analytical fiber element model is developed for a typical reinforced concrete building in Turkey. The interstory drifts are calculated from nonlinear dynamic analysis using 26 recorded strong-motion data from the 1999 Kocaeli and the Duzce earthquakes. In the dynamic analysis, the structural members are modeled by employing distributed plasticity fiber elements and both geometrical as well as material nonlinearities are taken into account. This study shows that the ductility and interstory drift demands due to the Kocaeli and the Duzce earthquakes were very severe (well above the code prescribed values) even for moderately inelastic structures. It is apparent from the results that the forward directivity effect is the most influential factor on the interstory drift demand. Both the distance to the fault rupture and the site conditions affect seismic demands, but the site conditions and the local topography are more influential than the distance from the fault rupture. This study shows that substantial damage should be expected in a future earthquake at all districts of Istanbul, but especially at Avcilar, Cekmece, Fatih, Bakirkoy and the Zeytinburnu districts. It is also shown that base isolation may substantially improve the performance of a structure in the inelastic domain and base isolated structures may be designed for lower minimum lateral strengths and higher strength reduction factors.