On the topographic bias in geoid determination by the external gravity field

The topographic bias is defined as the error/bias committed by continuing the external gravity field inside the topographic masses by a harmonic function. We study the topographic bias given by a digital terrain model defined by a spherical template, and we show that the topographic bias is given only by the potential of an inner-zone cap, and it equals the bias of the Bouguer shell, independent of the size of the cap. Then we study the effect on the real Earth by decomposing its topography into a template, and we show also in this case that the topographic bias is that of the Bouguer shell, independent of the shape of the terrain. Finally, we show that the topographic potential of the terrain at the geoid can be determined to any precision by a Taylor expansion outside the Earth’s surface. The last statement is demonstrated by a Taylor expansion to fourth order.     

A neutron diffraction study of alkali cation migration in montmorillonites

Neutron powder diffraction measurements on lithium and cesium saturated montmorillonite samples before and after heat treatment at 300°C are studied, in order to undertake a complete refinement of crystal structure and unravel the migration mechanism for the interlayer cations of Li or Cs. Rietveld analysis of the corresponding diffraction patterns finds that montmorillonite crystallizes in the C2/m space group with unit cell dimensions consistent with the size of the specific interlayer cation. We show that thermal treatment affects the two types of samples in a different way. This is with respect to their unit cell dimensions and the migration of Li from the 2b to the 2c clay lattice site, in constrast to the Cs positioning which remains effectively unchanged.     

Mixing,hypersalinity and gradients in Hervey Bay,Australia

Hervey Bay, a large coastal embayment situated off the central eastern coast of Australia, is a shallow tidal area (average depth = 15 m), close to the continental shelf. It shows features of an inverse estuary, due to the high evaporation rate (approx. 2 m/year), low precipitation (less than 1 m/year) and on average almost no freshwater input from rivers that drain into the bay. The hydro- and thermodynamical structures of Hervey Bay and their variability are presented here for the first time, using a combination of four-dimensional modelling and observations from field studies. The numerical studies are performed with the Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological Model for Regional Shelf Seas (COHERENS). Due to the high tidal range (>3.5 m), the bay is considered as a vertically well-mixed system, and therefore, only horizontal fronts are likely. Recent field measurements, but also the numerical simulations, indicate characteristic features of an inverse/hypersaline estuary with low salinity (35.5 psu) in the open ocean and peak values (>39.0 psu) in the head water of the bay. The model further predicts a nearly persistent mean salinity gradient of 0.5 psu across the bay (with higher salinities close to the shore). The investigation further shows that air temperature, wind direction and tidal regime are mainly responsible for the stability of the inverse circulation and the strength of the salinity gradient across the bay. Due to an ongoing drying trend, the occurrence of severe droughts at the central east coast of Australia and, therefore, a reduction in freshwater supply, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased, and the inverse circulation has also strengthened.     

Solar rotation velocity as determined from sunspot drawings of J. Hevelius in the 17th century

Using two original copies of Hevelius' Selenographia and reducing spot positions with two different methods, we found that the solar angular rotation velocity at the beginning of the Maunder minimum was about the same as today. The gradient of the differential rotation was slightly steeper than given in modern reductions, but not significantly different. These findings are in contradiction to those published by Eddy et al. (1976).     

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.     

Über die Beziehung zwischen äquatorialen Konvektionsregen und der Meereshöhe auf Ceylon

Zusammenfassung Die Beziehung zwischen äquatorialen Konvektionsregen und der Meereshöhe wird am Beispiel der Südabdachung der Haputale Range auf Ceylon (etwa 7° nördl. Br. und rund 1400 m Höhenunterschied) untersucht. Auf der Grundlage unveröffentlichter Niederschlagsmessungen von 21 Stationen, vorwiegend Teeplantagen, für die Periode von 1951–1965 wird die Änderung der Niederschlagsmenge mit der Höhe an Hand der mittleren jährlichen und mittleren monatlichen Niederschlagsmengen diskutiert. Hierbei ergibt sich im Jahresmittel und in den Monaten mit vorwiegend konvektiver Niederschlagsbildung — das sind die Intermonsunmonate März, April und Mai sowie Oktober und November —, daß nach anfänglicher Zunahme des Niederschlags mit wachsender Höhe oberhalb einer kritischen Höhenlage zwischen 900–1400 m NN eine stetige Abnahme des Niederschlags eintritt.

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Summary The relationship between equatorial convective rain and altitude above sea-level is investigated taking the southern slope of the Haputale Range in Ceylon (7° N, about 1400 m range of altitude) as an example. On the basis of unpublished precipitation observations of 21 stations, most of them on tea-estates, from the period 1951 to 1965 the variation of the amount of precipitation with altitude is discussed using mean annual and mean monthly precipitation totals. It appears that in the annual mean and during the months with prevailing convective rain — these are the intermonsoonal months March, April, May and October, November — the precipitation totals increase with altitude up to a critical level between 900 and 1400 m a.s.l. and then decrease again monotonically.

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Résumé On examine ici la relation existant entre les précipitations équatoriales de convection d'une part et l'altitude d'autre part. Pour ce faire, on se sert de l'exemple offert par le versant sud de l'Haputale Range de Ceylan (situé à environ 7° de latitude N et présentant une différence d'altitude de 1400 m environ). Sur la base de mesures non publiées des précipitations — mesures effectuées de 1951 à 1965 à 21 stations, en majeure partie des plantations de thé — on discute les modifications que subissent les sommes de précipitations avec l'altitude. Dans ce but, on utilise les moyennes annuelles et mensuelles de cet élément. Il en résulte que les précipitations augmentent tout d'abord avec l'altitude et cela jusqu'à une zone critique située entre 900 et 1400 m. Au-dessus, les précipitations diminuent de nouveau régulièrement. Cette constatation est valable aussi bien pour la moyenne annuelle que pour les mois caractérisés avant tout par des précipitations d'origine convective c'est à dire ceux qui se situent entre les périodes de mousson (mars, avril, mai, octobre et novembre).

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Mit 4 Abbildungen     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.