Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

High-temperature emplacement of the Cerro Galán and Toconquis Group ignimbrites (Puna plateau,NW Argentina) determined by TRM analyses

Estimates of pyroclastic flow emplacement temperatures in the Cerro Galán ignimbrite and Toconquis Group ignimbrites were determined using thermal remanent magnetization of lithic clasts embedded within the deposits. These ignimbrites belong to the Cerro Galán volcanic system, one of the largest calderas in the world, in the Puna plateau, NW Argentina. Temperature estimates for the 2.08-Ma Cerro Galán ignimbrite are retrieved from 40 sites in 14 localities (176 measured clasts), distributed at different distances from the caldera and different stratigraphic heights. Additionally, temperature estimates were obtained from 27 sample sites (125 measured clasts) from seven ignimbrite units forming the older Toconquis Group (5.60–4.51 Ma), mainly outcropping along a type section at Rio Las Pitas, Vega Real Grande. The paleomagnetic data obtained by progressive thermal demagnetization show that the clasts of the Cerro Galán ignimbrite have one single magnetic component, oriented close to the expected geomagnetic field at the time of emplacement. Results show therefore that most of the clasts acquired a new magnetization oriented parallel to the magnetic field at the moment of the ignimbrite deposition, suggesting that the clasts were heated up to or above the highest blocking temperature (T _b) of the magnetic minerals (T _b = 580°C for magnetite; T _b = 600–630°C for hematite). We obtained similar emplacement temperature estimations for six out of the seven volcanic units belonging to the Toconquis Group, with the exception of one unit (Lower Merihuaca), where we found two distinct magnetic components. The estimation of emplacement temperatures in this latter case is constrained at 580–610°C, which are lower than the other ignimbrites. These estimations are also in agreement with the lowest pre-eruptive magma temperatures calculated for the same unit (i.e., 790°C; hornblende–plagioclase thermometer; Folkes et al. 2011b). We conclude that the Cerro Galán ignimbrite and Toconquis Group ignimbrites were emplaced at temperatures equal to or higher than 620°C, except for Lower Merihuaca unit emplaced at lower temperatures. The homogeneity of high temperatures from proximal to distal facies in the Cerro Galán ignimbrite provides constraints for the emplacement model, marked by a relatively low eruption column, low levels of turbulence, air entrainment, surface–water interaction, and a high level of topographic confinement, all ensuring minimal heat loss.     

Experimental solidification of anhydrous latitic and trachytic melts at different cooling rates: The role of nucleation kinetics

Two sets of cooling experiments were run at atmospheric conditions for two anhydrous starting latitic and trachytic melts: 1) five cooling rates (25, 12.5, 3, 0.5, and 0.125 °C/min) between 1300° and 800 °C, and 2) a 0.5 °C/min cooling rate from 1300 °C with quench temperatures at 1200°, 1100°, 1000° and 900 °C. Trachytic run-products are invariably glassy. Nucleation is also suppressed in the latitic run-products at the three highest cooling rates. Conversely, in the 0.5 and 0.125 °C/min runs, latites have a crystal content of  90 vol.%. The phases are: plagioclase, clinopyroxene, glass and iron-bearing oxide (in order of abundance). The variable quench temperatures, investigated by coupling experiments with Pt wire and Pt capsule sample containers in set 2, again did not produce crystallization of trachyte, whereas latitic samples are characterized by  10 vol.% of oxides, pyroxenes and plagioclase (in order of appearance), at temperature < 1000 °C. Effects of (preferential) heterogeneous nucleation on sample holders, of superheating degree, and chemical species loss during cooling are absent for both melt compositions. The difference of solidification paths between these two silicate melts can be ascribed only to their small chemical differences. In comparison with calculated equilibrium conditions all the experimental latitic and trachytic run-products revealed strong kinetic effects, interpretable in the light of the nucleation theory. The glass-forming ability (GFA) of trachyte is higher, whereas their critical cooling rate (Rc) is lower (< 0.125 °C/min), in comparison to latitic melts (Rc > 0.5 °C/min). The experimental results carried out in this study can be applied to lava flows and domes; trachytic lavas are able to flow for longer period with respect to latitic ones in a metastable condition. Glass-rich terrestrial lavas, i.e. obsidians, can be the result of sluggish nucleation kinetics due to the relative high polymerisation of evolved silicate melts.     

Magnetic Reconnection and Extraplanar Diffuse Ionized Gas

Photoionization by stars cannot be the only cause for the diffuseionized gas component in the distant halos of galaxies.Quasistationary localized magnetic reconnection can efficientlycontribute to the ionization of the extraplanar halo gas. The gas isheated and re-ionized in numerous current filaments fast enough tocompensate recombination. The necessary magnetic energy is provided bythe disk activity.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.     

Diffuse CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> degassing at Vesuvio,Italy

At Vesuvio, a significant fraction of the rising hydrothermal–volcanic fluids is subjected to a condensation and separation process producing a CO₂–rich gas phase, mainly expulsed through soil diffuse degassing from well defined areas called diffuse degassing structures (DDS), and a liquid phase that flows towards the outer part of the volcanic cone. A large amount of thermal energy is associated with the steam condensation process and subsequent cooling of the liquid phase. The total amount of volcanic–hydrothermal CO₂ discharged through diffuse degassing has been computed through a sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) approach based on several hundred accumulation chamber measurements and, at the time of the survey, amounted to 151 t d^–1. The steam associated with the CO₂ output, computed assuming that the original H₂O/CO₂ ratio of hydrothermal fluids is preserved in fumarolic effluents, is 553 t d^–1, and the energy produced by the steam condensation and cooling of the liquid phase is 1.47×10¹² J d^–1 (17 MW). The location of the CO₂ and temperature anomalies show that most of the gas is discharged from the inner part of the crater and suggests that crater morphology and local stratigraphy exert strong control on CO₂ degassing and subsurface steam condensation. The amounts of gas and energy released by Vesuvio are comparable to those released by other volcanic degassing areas of the world and their estimates, through periodic surveys of soil CO₂ flux, can constitute a useful tool to monitor volcanic activity.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara     

Star formation in the starburst cluster in NGC 3603

We have used new, deep, visible and near infrared observations of the compact starburst cluster in the giant HII region NGC 3603 and its surroundings with the WFC3 on HST and HAWK-I on the VLT to study in detail the physical properties of its intermediate mass (∼1–3 M_⊙) stellar population. We show that after correction for differential extinction and actively accreting stars, and the study of field star contamination, strong evidence remains for a continuous spread in the ages of pre-main sequence stars in the range ∼2 to ∼30 Myr within the temporal resolution available. Existing differences among presently available theoretical models account for the largest possible variation in shape of the measured age histograms within these limits. We also find that this isochronal age spread in the near infrared and visible Colour-Magnitude Diagrams cannot be reproduced by any other presently known source of astrophysical or instrumental scatter that could mimic the luminosity spread seen in our observations except, possibly, episodic accretion. The measured age spread and the stellar spatial distribution in the cluster are consistent with the hypothesis that star formation started at least 20–30 Myrs ago progressing slowly but continuously up to at least a few million years ago. All the stars in the considered mass range are distributed in a flattened oblate spheroidal pattern with the major axis oriented in an approximate South-East–North-West direction, and with the length of the equatorial axis decreasing with increasing age. This asymmetry is most likely due to the fact that star formation occurred along a filament of gas and dust in the natal molecular cloud oriented locally in this direction.     

Nonlinear analysis of masonry structures using fiber-section line elements

For seismic analysis of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings characterized by a box-like behavior, a widely accepted model is based on the equivalent frame idealization of walls. The equivalent frame model uses 1D elements to represent the vertical piers and horizontal spandrels which are connected by rigid nodes. The mechanical characterization of the elements is one of the crucial aspects to predict reasonably the building seismic behavior. Through the comparison with pseudo-static and dynamic experimental tests performed on two-story full-scale buildings, this paper validates the frame modeling in the OpenSees framework, which includes a fiber-section force-based beam element for the axial-flexural behavior, coupled with a cyclic shear-deformation phenomenological law.     

A new perspective on the significance of the Ranotsara shear zone in Madagascar

The Ranotsara shear zone in Madagascar has been considered in previous studies to be a >350-km-long, intracrustal strike-slip shear zone of Precambrian/Cambrian age. Because of its oblique strike to the east and west coast of Madagascar, the Ranotsara shear zone has been correlated with shear zones in southern India and eastern Africa in Gondwana reconstructions. Our assessment using remote sensing data and field-based investigations, however, reveals that what previously has been interpreted as the Ranotsara shear zone is in fact a composite structure with a ductile deflection zone confined to its central segment and prominent NW–SE trending brittle faulting along most of its length. We therefore prefer the more neutral term “Ranotsara Zone”. Lithologies, tectonic foliations, and axial trace trajectories of major folds can be followed from south to north across most of the Ranotsara Zone and show only a marked deflection along its central segment. The ductile deflection zone is interpreted as a result of E–W indentation of the Antananarivo Block into the less rigid, predominantly metasedimentary rocks of the Southwestern Madagascar Block during a late phase of the Neoproterozoic/Cambrian East African Orogeny (c. 550–520 Ma). The Ranotsara Zone shows significant NW–SE striking brittle faulting that reactivates part of the NW–SE striking ductile structures in the flexure zone, but also extends along strike toward the NW and toward the SE. Brittle reactivation of ductile structures along the central segment of the Ranotsara Zone, confirmed by apatite-fission track results, may have led to the formation of a shallow Neogene basin underlying the Ranotsara plain. The present-day drainage pattern suggests on-going normal fault activity along the central segment. The Ranotsara Zone is not a megascale intracrustal strike-slip shear zone that crosscuts the entire basement of southern Madagascar. It can therefore not be used as a piercing point in Gondwana reconstructions.     

Electrodynamic Disaggregation: Does it Affect Apatite Fission-Track and (U-Th)/He Analyses?

Apatite fission-track and (U-Th)/He analyses require the liberation of intact idiomorphic apatite grains from rock samples. While routinely being carried out by mechanical methods, electrodynamic disaggregation (ED) offers an alternative approach. The high-voltage discharges produced during the ED process create localised temperature peaks (10000 K) along a narrow plasma channel. In apatite, such high temperatures could potentially reduce the length of fission tracks, which start to anneal at temperatures > 60 °C, and could also enhance He diffusion, which becomes significant at 30–40 °C over geological time scales. A comparison of fission-track analyses and (U-Th)/He ages of apatites prepared both by mechanical (jaw crusher, disk mill) and ED processing provides a way of determining whether heating during the latter method has any significant effect. Apatites from three samples of different geological settings (an orthogneiss from Madagascar, the Fish Canyon Tuff, and a muscovite-gneiss from Greece) yielded statistically identical track length distributions compared to samples prepared mechanically. Additionally, (U-Th)/He ages of apatites from a leucogranite from Morocco prepared by both methods were indistinguishable. These first results indicated that during electrodynamic disaggregation apatite crystals were not heated enough to partially anneal the fission tracks or induce significant diffusive loss of He.