基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)第五代全球再分析资料(ERA5)构建模式气候,应用ECMWF集合预报,采用“集合预报标准化异常预报法”,针对最高和最低气温构建中国地区集合平均异常温度预报和异常温度概率预报产品,并与极端预报指数(extreme forecast index,EFI)开展检验和对比分析预报性能,并基于“异常温度影响矩阵”,构建了异常温度影响程度预报指数,通过异常温度事件个例探讨相关产品的预报应用。结果表明:基于ECMWF的ERA5和集合预报构建的集合平均异常温度预报产品对我国夏季和冬季异常温度事件均有比较好的预报效果,预报性能好于或接近EFI,可作为业务上对异常温度事件预报的支撑产品。异常温度概率预报产品可以体现集合成员中的预报异常温度事件的信息,在中期预报时效对发现早期异常温度事件信号有优势,并可反映对异常天气预报的不确定性信息。异常温度影响程度预报指数结合了异常天气概率预报信息和异常程度预报信息,可对异常温度时间给出客观定量的预报结果,对一次异常低温事件的个例预报证明该指数有比较好的预报效果,对异常温度事件的预报和早期科学预警有一定指示意义和业务应用前景。     

Regeneration and utilization of nutrients during collapse of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mesodinium rubrum</Emphasis> red tide and its influence on phytoplankton species composition

High-biomass red tides occur frequently in some semi-enclosed bays of Hong Kong where ambient nutrients are not high enough to support such a high phytoplankton biomass. These high-biomass red tides release massive inorganic nutrients into local waters during their collapse. We hypothesized that the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of red tides would fuel growth of other phytoplankton species. This could influence phytoplankton species composition. We tested the hypothesis using a red tide event caused by Mesodinium rubrum (M. rubrum) in a semi-enclosed bay, Port Shelter. The red tide patch had a cell density as high as 5.0×10⁵ cells L^?1, and high chlorophyll a (63.71 μg L^?1). Ambient inorganic nutrients (nitrate: \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), ammonium: \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), phosphate: \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), silicate: \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\)) were low both in the red tide patch and the non-red-tide patch (clear waters outside the red tide patch). Nutrient addition experiments were conducted by adding all the inorganic nutrients to water samples from the two patches followed by incubation for 9 days. The results showed that the addition of inorganic nutrients did not sustain high M. rubrum cell density, which collapsed after day 1, and did not drive M. rubrum in the non-red-tide patch sample to the same high-cell density in the red tide patch sample. This confirmed that nutrients were not the driving factor for the formation of this red tide event, or for its collapse. The death of M. rubrum after day 1 released high concentrations of \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), and urea. Bacterial abundance and heterotrophic activity increased, reaching the highest on day 3 or 4, and decreased as cell density of M. rubrum declined. The released nutrients stimulated growth of diatoms, such as Chaetoceros affinis var. circinalis, Thalassiothrix frauenfeldii, and Nitzschia sp., particularly with additions of \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\) treatments, and other species. These results demonstrated that initiation of M. rubrum red tides in the bay was not directly driven by nutrients. However, the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of the red tide could induce a second bloom in low-ambient nutrient water, influencing phytoplankton species composition.     

灌注桩后注浆技术应用研究及承载力影响分析

对后注浆技术未能大幅提高灌注桩单桩承载力的工程个案展开分析研判,得出注浆过程控制不力是导致单桩承载力不足的主要原因。严格注浆管、射浆管、逆止阀制作质量管控与安装及注浆过程控制是能否成功注浆进而提高承载力的关键因素。工程案例中对承载力欠缺的区域进行了补桩处理,补桩时规范注浆装置制作、加强注浆过程管控,在补桩达到龄期后进行了静载试验,结果表明其单桩竖向极限承载力满足设计要求。     

Study on Sound-Speed Dispersion in A Sandy Sediment at Frequency Ranges of 0.5–3 kHz and 90–170 kHz

In order to study the properties of sound-speed dispersion in a sandy sediment, the sound speed was measured both at high frequency(90–170 k Hz) and low frequency(0.5–3 k Hz) in laboratory environments. At high frequency, a sampling measurement was conducted with boiled and uncooked sand samples collected from the bottom of a large water tank. The sound speed was directly obtained through transmission measurement using single source and single hydrophone. At low frequency, an in situ measurement was conducted in the water tank, where the sandy sediment had been homogeneously paved at the bottom for a long time. The sound speed was indirectly inverted according to the traveling time of signals received by three buried hydrophones in the sandy sediment and the geometry in experiment. The results show that the mean sound speed is approximate 1710–1713 m/s with a weak positive gradient in the sand sample after being boiled(as a method to eliminate bubbles as much as possible) at high frequency, which agrees well with the predictions of Biot theory, the effective density fluid model(EDFM) and Buckingham's theory. However, the sound speed in the uncooked sandy sediment obviously decreases(about 80%)both at high frequency and low frequency due to plenty of bubbles in existence. And the sound-speed dispersion performs a weak negative gradient at high frequency. Finally, a water-unsaturated Biot model is presented for trying to explain the decrease of sound speed in the sandy sediment with plenty of bubbles.     

南黄海中部海底沉积物声阻抗特性

基于在南黄海中部海域获得的大量海底沉积物样品及其测试数据,分析讨论了该区域海底浅表层沉积物声阻抗特性及其与沉积物物理力学性质参数的相关关系。研究表明:研究区浅表层沉积物声阻抗呈现出分区域分布的特征,可分为西南部声阻抗高值区、东北部声阻抗低值区以及北西-东南向声阻抗梯度带3个区域。通过回归分析,建立了声阻抗与沉积物物理力学参数的经验回归方程。结果表明:声阻抗与密度、含水率、孔隙比、孔隙度、液限、塑限、塑性指数、压缩系数等参数的相关性较好,判定系数R²一般大于0.8,而与砂粒含量、黏粒含量、中值粒径、抗剪强度等参数的相关性相对较差,判定系数R²一般小于0.7。将声阻抗与物理力学性质的相关性和声速与物理力学性质的相关性进行了对比,结果表明,声阻抗与上述参数的判定系数R²均大于声速与上述参数的判定系数,从而表明声阻抗是一个能够更好地反映声学特性与物理力学性质关系的沉积物声学特性参数。     

干旱区一次锋面过境短时暴雨中尺度系统分析

利用加密自动站、卫星云图及雷达图像等资料,对2010年6月7日白天到夜间宁夏中北部地区出现的短时暴雨天气成因及中尺度系统演变进行分析。结果表明,此次短时暴雨是在“东高西低”稳定的环流形势和锋面过境背景下,500 hPa西风槽,700 hPa切变线、低涡、低空急流,850 hPa切变线,地面冷锋等主要影响系统相互配合、共同作用下发生的;大降水落区位于低空急流左侧与切变线尾部的辐合区,这可作为宁夏中尺度暴雨天气系统的一种典型特征;逆风区的出现和S型风场、锋面过境雷达图像特征是此次强降水典型的雷达回波特征,逆风区分布与中尺度系统走向基本一致。     

一株南极细菌（Pseudoalteromonas sp.）对模拟海水养殖水体的净化作用

试验选用一株高产低温蛋白酶的南极细菌菌株Pseudoalteromonas sp. AN64,从溶解氧、化学需氧量、氨氮、亚硝态氮、pH值5个方面研究了南极细菌对养殖水体的影响。结果显示,随着饲料中蛋白质的散失,水体中蛋白质的含量在第7天达到高峰,溶解氧下降,化学需氧量持续上升,在第11天达最大值9.88 mg/L,并且维持在较高的水平。缺氧条件下,有害物质氨氮和亚硝态氮含量逐渐增加,在第9天和第11天分别达最大值0.65 mg/L和0.352 mg/L,而pH值持续下降,在第9天达最低值5.95。当水体中加入高产蛋白酶的南极菌株AN64后,蛋白质含量在第5天即达高峰,溶解氧无明显变化,化学需氧量在第7天达最高峰,比对照组提前4天,但含量仅约为后者的一半。同时,氨氮和亚硝态氮含量远低于对照组,分别仅为对照的47.7 %和26.5 %,而pH值有小幅下降,维持在6.85到7.52之间。由此可以看出,南极菌株产生的低温蛋白酶可以有效分解海水中的蛋白质,降低水体中的氨氮和亚硝态氮等有害物质,维持pH值的稳定性,为健康养殖提供了有效途径。     

温州珊溪水库地震重新定位与速度结构联合反演

通过震源位置和速度结构联合反演方法,利用浙江和福建区域地震台网和珊溪水库台网给出的P波走时资料,得到了珊溪水库地区的三维速度结构,重新确定了珊溪水库地震的震源参数。结果表明:①震中总体呈现NW向分布,NW走向的双溪-焦溪垟断裂可能为珊溪水库地震序列的发震断层。②珊溪水库地震震源深度最大为9.5km,平均为5.4km,小于华南地震区10km的平均震源深度。③水库北、南两岸的地震较浅,震源深度均小于5km,水库淹没区地震较深。水库诱发地震之初的几年中震源深度有一个逐渐变大的过程,这可能是由于库水逐渐往深部下渗,从而进一步诱发了更深处的地震所致。④研究区存在一个低P波速度异常区,低速区位于水库淹没区内的多组断裂交汇部位,地震大多发生在低速异常区内。这可能与水库蓄水后库水下渗有关。     

可配置地质环境评价系统研究与应用

地质环境评价是掌握地质环境时空格局、变化趋势,开展地质环境防治保护管理工作的必要前提和重要手段。根据不同的应用目的,地质环境评价需采用不同的指标体系和数据,而且随着地质环境业务的发展,指标体系和数据也会不断扩展和变化。为了适应地质环境评价发展的需要,本文提出并研发了可配置的地质环境评价系统,该系统围绕地质环境评价核心过程,通过配置层可以对地质环境评价指标因子及权重、指标数据源及获取方法、指标评价计算方法,以及指标分级标准与空间可视化方法等多个环节进行灵活设置。与传统的地质环境评价软件相比,可避免地质环境评价指标或数据源发生变化时,需要重新进行软件编码、重新组织数据库等问题。唐山市应用实践表明,该系统具有良好的可配置能力、扩展性和应用性。     

地理空间数据本质特征语义相关度计算模型

关联数据是跨网域整合多源异构地理空间数据的有效方式,语义丰富的关联是准确、快速发现目标数据的关键。根据地理空间数据在空间、时间、内容上的语义关系,提出地理空间数据本质特征语义相关度计算模型。通过构建本质特征的关联指标体系,分层次逐级计算地理空间数据的语义相关度。与传统的语义相关度计算方式不同,以地理元数据为语料库,充分考虑地理空间数据的特点及空间、时间、内容在检索中不同的重要程度,分别采用几何运算、数值运算、词语语义相似度计算和类别层次相关度计算的方式,构建地理空间数据的语义相关度计算模型。该模型具有构建简单、适用于多源异构数据、充分结合了数学运算和专家经验知识等特点。实验表明：模型能够有效地计算地理空间数据本质特征的语义相关度,并具备一定的扩展性。