Inductive magnetic footpoint tracking by combining the minimum energy fit with the local correlation tracking and doppler velocity

Time-dependent magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of active region coronal magnetic field require the underlying photospheric magnetic footpoint velocities. The minimum energy fit (MEF) is a new velocity inversion technique to infer the photospheric magnetic footpoint velocities using a pair of vector magnetograms, introduced by Longcope (2004). The MEF selects the smallest overall flow from several consistent flows by minimizing an energy functional. The inferred horizontal and vertical flow fields by the MEF can be further constrained by incorporating the partial or imperfect velocity information obtained through independent means. This hybrid method is expected to give a velocity close to the true magnetic footpoint velocity. Here, we demonstrate that a combination of the MEF, the local correlation tracking (LCT) and Doppler velocity is capable of inferring the velocity close to the photospheric flow.     

Amphibole zonation in metabasites as a guide to the evolution of metamorphic conditions

In low grade metabasites the amphibole components tremolite, glaucophane, edenite and tschermakite have their activities controlled by interactions with the excess components albite, clinozoisite, chlorite, quartz and H₂O vapor. Three types of reaction are involved, (i) Those in which only components of condensed phases take part: isopleths of equilibrium constant are straight lines in the P-T plane. (ii) Dehydration reactions in which entropy change due to change in Al coordination is of the same sign as that due to dehydration: isopleths of constant K are positive at low pressure and negative at high pressure. (iii) Dehydration reactions in which entropy change due to Al coordination change is opposite in sign to that of dehydration: isopleths of constant K loop in the P-T plane with positive slopes at low and at high pressure. Zonation in naturally occurring amphiboles records the evolution of metamorphic conditions in particular rocks. In an example from the eastern Alps (Austria) early conditions calculated as 15 kb, 200 ° C evolve upgrade to 6 kb, 525 ° C implying concurrent heating and erosion. The record of evolving conditions may span some 30 Ma of geological history.     

A regional model for studies of atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction in the western Arctic

Summary Asa step in the development of a fully coupled regional model of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, atmospheric and sea ice models have been adapted to a western Arctic domain centered on the Bering Strait. Lateral boundary conditions derived from operational analyses drive the models through simulations on grids having horizontal resolutions of 21 km and 7 km. Sensitivities to the presence of sea ice are large after only 48 hours, by which time the surface temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are 10–15°C higher without sea ice than with sea ice. The temperatures, in turn, modify the fields of sea level pressure, surface wind and precipitation. By influencing the surface wind stress through the static static stability, the surface state feeds back to the surface momentum exchange, ice/ocean transport, and the rate of formation of new ice. The results also show a resolution-dependence of the surface winds, precipitation rates and new ice formation rates, particularly in areas in which the coastal configuration and topography are spatially complex. The experiments will be augmented by the implementation of an ocean model on the same grids.With 12 Figures     

Deposition of trace substances via cloud interception on a coniferous forest at Kleiner Feldberg

A resistance model to calculate the deposition of cloud droplets on a coniferous forest and some improved parameterizations of the indispensable input parameters are described. The deposition model is adapted to the coniferous forest at the Kleiner Feldberg site and verified by the data of a drip water monitoring station below the forest canopy. The measurements of liqud water content, wind speed and trace substance compounds in cloud water of the Ground-based Cloud Experiment (GCE) at Kleiner Feldberg in 1990 are used to calculate the cloud water deposition fluxes and the deposition of trace substances via cloud water interception. The calculated deposition of trace substances via cloud water interceptions is three to six times higher than via rain during the experiment. On a long term data basis the yearly amount of cloud water deposition is 180 mm year^–1 at Kleiner Feldberg site (840 m a.s.l.) while the precipitation amount is 1030 mm year^–1. Due to higher trace substance concentrations in cloud water compared to rain the ionic deposition via cloud water interception and via precipitation were assessed to be of comparable magnitude.     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.