全球海气耦合模式中热盐环流对大气强迫的响应

大气环流与热盐环流(THC)变化之间的因果关系,是海气相互作用研究领域的一个悬而未决的问题。作者利用一个全球海气耦合模式-挪威卑尔根气候模式(BCM)的300a积分结果,讨论了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)对海洋的强迫与热盐环流的年际调整之间的关系。结果发现,在NAO活动的正位相,伴随着中纬度西风带的加强,北大西洋拉布拉多海热通量损失剧增,同时海表盐度出现正距平,二者的共同作用,令表层海水变沉、密度增大,海洋层结出现不稳定,导致深对流发生。在NAO活动达到最强劲状态之后3个月,拉布拉多海对流也达到最深。北大西洋热盐环流强度变化对拉布拉多海对流活动的响应,要滞后3a左右。而在年际尺度上,大西洋的极向热输送变化和热盐环流的变化则基本是同步的。对流活动对大气存在明显的反馈作用。在对流活动深度达到最大之后1～4个月,对流热释放令拉布拉多海表层气温明显升高。     

基于小波变换的信号突变检测滤波和瞬态谱研究

该文简述了小波理论产生的背景和发展过程,详细介绍了小波变换的概念、基本特性以及基于小波变换的信号突变检测、滤波及基于小波包变换的瞬态谱研究方法和结果。文后对小波变换在地震信号处理中的应用前景进行了讨论。     

海藻硫酸多糖911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应及对细胞产生IL—2作用的影响

本文以~3H—TdR掺入法观察911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应的影响并用CTLL细胞检测了其对IL—2的作用。体外实验结果表明,911对小鼠脾淋巴细胞增殖反应有明显的增强作用,以0.5μg/ml的浓度效果最为明显,相对增殖指数RPI可达200％;体内实验则以5mg/kg体重ip,连续7d效果最好,相对增殖指数RPI可达176％;911用药组小鼠IL—2的产生量均高于对照组,以5mg/kg和10mg/kg效果最好。以上实验证明,这一多糖是一种有希望的新免疫调节药物。     

天气学和天气预报的研究进展

全面回顾了75年来中国科学院大气物理研究所科研人员在气团、锋面、梅雨、寒潮、阻高、副高、暴雨、高低空急流、亚澳季风区内涡旋和对流等现象的天气学研究进展及其在不同时期所取得的研究成果,总结了在短中期天气预报及短期气候预测领域在模式发展和改进以及在数值模拟等方面所取得的成就和进展.同时指出模式发展和预测在中国数值天气预报及短期气候预测方面所做出的贡献.     

基于Parsivel天气现象仪资料的郑州“7·20”罕见特大暴雨微物理特征分析

基于2016-2018年ECMWF模式温度预报和浙江省72个国家基本站观测资料,根据温度日变化特征,采用K-近邻(KNN)回归算法进行误差订正,改进浙江省172 h精细化温度预报。在KNN回归算法中,将模式起报时刻的温度视作“背景”,由模式预报减去起报时刻温度消除“背景”影响,得到温度日变化曲线,通过温度日变化曲线构建差异指标,选取历史相似个例。根据历史相似个例的误差特征,对温度预报进行订正,得到改进的温度预报。检验结果表明,KNN方案的温度预报平均绝对误差较ECMWF和30 d滑动平均误差订正方案(OCF)的分别减小26.2%和5.2%;日最高和最低温度预报误差绝对值小于2℃,准确率较ECMWF的分别提高14.8%和4.3%,较OCF的分别提高3.0%和1.3%。KNN方案对地形复杂地区的温度预报改进效果更为明显,对冷空气活动和夏季高温等天气过程预报改善效果也较稳定。     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度与环境气流切变关系的气候分析

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和JTwC(美国关岛联合台风警报中心)资料,对1974～2004年5～10月西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)强度和环境风垂直切变进行了趋势特征、振荡周期和空间结构分析.结果表明:西北太平洋热带风暴强度以上TC的最大风速和环境风垂直切变在时间上有相反的变化趋势,弱的环境风垂直切变有利于TC强度的增大;前12 h的环境风垂直切变对TC强度的发展影响最大.环境风垂直切变在两北太平洋TC最强的年份表现为环境风切变值小,TC发生密集;最弱的年份表现为环境风切变值大,TC发生稀疏.     

雨滴尺度谱谱参数和形状因子的分析

作者计算了３次降不过程的雨滴尺度谱参数，并进行Ｍ－Ｐ分布拟合和Г分布拟合。同时还计算了雨滴谱形状因子Ｓ（Ｚ，Ｒ），分析了形状因子与雨强之间的关系。     

Main Controlling Factors on Hydrocarbon Accumulation and Distribution in Marine Sedimentary Sequences in South China

Multiple source rock assemblages were deposited in the sedimentary provinces in South China in geologic history,and some of them were destructed by and some survived against multiple tectonic movements.Therefore,multiple sources,mixed sources,and uneven distribution of sources occurred in the marine sedimentary basins in South China during the late stage of hydrocarbon pooling.Epidiagenesis of the marine carbonate reservoirs and its modification to reservoir poroperm characteristics determined the formation and the scale of natural gas pools.The exploration practices show that the large to medium gas fields mainly occur in areas with high-quality reservoirs.Detailed study of the paleo-oil accumulations and typical oil and gas reservoirs reveals that the basins experienced multiphase superimposition and modification,leading to the distribution of the Paleozoic paleo-oil accumulations and bitumen in the peripheral areas.The phenomenon that oil and gas production concentrates in the Sichuan basin indicates that the overall sealing conditions of a basin determine the oil/gas potentials and the scale of oil and gas production.This is a critical factor controlling the accumulation and distribution of gas in the marine sequences in South China.The early oil and gas pools in the Yangtze platform left billions of bitumen in the peripheral areas due to the destruction of seals.Since the Himalayan,"late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools represented by the gas pools in the Sichuan (四川) basin were formed in the marine sedimentary sequences in South China as a result of the change of the sealing conditions.Current gas discoveries appear to be "paleo-generation and paleo-accumulation" gas pools but actually are "late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools.These patterns of hydrocarbon pooling clearly depict themselves in western Sichuan basin and Weiyuan (威远)gas field.It is revealed that the gas pools in the Sichuan basin were mainly formed as a result of hydrocarbon phase change (thermal cracking of oil to gas),miscible migration,and dynamic equilibration since the Himalayan.A large number of gas pools were formed in the Himalayan and the gas pools in the marine sequences are characterized by late pooling; this kind of gas fields/pools are controlled by:(1) effectiveness of modification and superimposition of the marine basins,(2) effectiveness of the source rocks,(3) effectiveness of the overall preservation conditions,and (4) effectiveness of plays.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping based on GIS and information value model for the Chencang District of Baoji,China

The main objective of this study was to apply a statistical (information value) model using geographic information system (GIS) to the Chencang District of Baoji, China. Landslide locations within the study area were identified using reports and aerial photographs, and a field survey. A total of 120 landslides were mapped, of which 84 (70 %) were randomly selected for building the landslide susceptibility model. The remaining 36 (30 %) were used for model validation. We considered a total of 10 potential factors that predispose an area to a landslide for the landslide susceptibility mapping. These included slope degree, altitude, slope aspect, plan curvature, geomorphology, distance from faults, lithology, land use, mean annual rainfall, and peak ground acceleration. Following an analysis of these factors, a landslide susceptibility map was produced using the information value model with GIS. The resulting landslide susceptibility index was divided into five classes (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low) using the natural breaks method. The corresponding distribution area percentages were 29.22, 25.14, 15.66, 15.60, and 14.38 %, respectively. Finally, landslide locations were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map using areas under the curve (AUC). The AUC plot showed that the susceptibility map had a success rate of 81.79 % and a prediction accuracy of 82.95 %. Based on the results of the AUC evaluation, the landslide susceptibility map produced using the information value model exhibited good performance.     

Experimental research on the effect of slope morphology on bank collapse in mountain reservoir

Farmers along the Amazon River each year face multiple natural hazards that threaten crop production and limit the potential for agricultural development of the expansive floodplain and active channel. In this paper we report the findings of a study of natural hazard-related risk associated with rice production on silt bars in the active channel of the Amazon River near Iquitos, Peru. Data were gathered in four rice producing communities in 2014 using household surveys (n = 83 households), focus group discussions, surveying of land elevations along the Amazon River, and interpretation of remote sensing imagery. The probability, extent, and severity of rice crop shortfalls were estimated for recent production years and the economic losses to farming households were also assessed. Our findings point to a very high risk of crop shortfalls due to natural hazards, suggesting that a good year brings rice farmers bounty and a bad year, near penury. River stage reversals (repiquetes) and edaphic conditions were found to be more problematic than the often cited hazard of high and/or early floods. Also surprisingly, farmers’ perceptions of hazards and risk diverged markedly from actual shortfalls experienced during the production years studied. Our results provide the first quantitative estimates of risk due to the multiple natural hazards along the Amazon River and point to the need to assist lowland farmers with risk mitigation so as to unlock the considerable potential of Amazon floodlands for agricultural production.