中小流域入库径流影响因素的敏感性分析

根据鲇鱼山水库和陆浑水库实测的月平均流量、气温、降水量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Spearman秩次相关检验、滑动t检验法对两座水库的入库流量进行显著性检验;建立了有关径流-降水-气温的数学模型,并对其敏感性进行了分析.研究结果表明:陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库的入库流量对降水变化的响应比对气温变化的响应更为显著.入库流量与降水变化趋势一致,与气温变化趋势相反,即随降雨量的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减少.     

河南省北部一次大雾天气过程分析

利用地面观测和探空资料以及NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,分析了2007年12A25-27日河南省北部大雾的成因,结果表明：由于降水后低层相对湿度较大,大气层结稳定,地面处在均压场里,风速较小,且大气低层为弱的上升运动、中高层为强的下沉运动,有利于低层水汽聚集,使湿层达到一定的厚度,从而使垂直能见度变差,雾的浓度变大。     

Numerical Study of the Response of an Atmospheric Surface Layer to a Spatially Nonuniform Plant Canopy

High-accuracy large-eddy simulations of neutral atmospheric surface-layer flow over a gapped plant canopy strip have been performed. Subgrid-scale (SGS) motions are parameterized by the Sagaut mixed length SGS model, with a modification to compute the SGS characteristic length self-adaptively. Shaw’s plant canopy model, taking the vertical variation of leaf area density into account, is applied to study the response of the atmospheric surface layer to the gapped dense forest strip. Differences in the region far away from the gap and in the middle of the gap are investigated, according to the instantaneous velocity magnitude, the zero-plane displacement, the potential temperature and the streamlines. The large-scale vortex structure, in the form of a roll vortex, is revealed in the region far away from the gap. The nonuniform spatial distribution of plants appears to cause the formation of the coherent structure. The roll vortex starts in the wake of the canopy, and results in strong fluctuations throughout the entire canopy region. Wind sweeps and ejections in the plant canopy are also attributed to the large vortex structure.     

南京地区夏季雷暴的雷达雷电特征分析

通过对2009年发生在南京的6次雷暴过程的雷达回波强度、VWP产品、垂直速度等雷达产品和探空资料等常规气象产品以及闪电资料的对比分析,发现VWP产品对雷暴过程中大气的湿度条件有较好的指示作用,ND区的初始破坏时间往往早于雷暴中闪电的发生时间。闪电主要发生在雷达最大回波顶高度突破9 km之后,并且最大回波顶高度较闪电峰值有约12 min的提前量。雷达平均垂直速度图中出现强上升中心后的短时间内闪电将会突然增大。     

粒子群算法与支持向量机相结合的热带气旋强度预报试验

支持向量机(SVM)的惩罚参数及核参数的选择直接影响到模型效果,通过粒子群算法(PSO)解决支持向量机的参数选择问题,实现了参数选择的自动化。将该方法应用于热带气旋强度预报,利用气候持续性因子,挑选了1990年的100个左右样本进行预报检验,预报时效为12 h、24 h、36 h、48 h的强度平均绝对误差分别为3.00、4.35、4.93和6.68 m/s。另外,还与国外预报结果及采用最小二乘回归法的预报结果进行了效果的比较,SVM方法显示了更好的预报能力。     

郑州市两次不同背景下特大暴雨诊断分析

利用NCEP资料,根据降水实况分布及各物理量分层平面分布,每隔6 h对特大暴雨中心区所在经、纬向带各物理量场作经、纬向垂直剖面图,结合高空观测图对郑州市两次特大暴雨发生的大环流形势场、触发特大暴雨发生的各物理量场进行诊断分析。结果表明:1)连续性特大暴雨区出现在低空急流轴的前方,一方面是由于低空急流前方水平辐合较强,另一方面低空急流对暖湿空气的输送,使大气不稳定度加强;局地短时性特大暴雨过程主要是冷空气侵入使冷暖湿空气团在郑州上空交汇,其对流不稳定能量释放所致。2)辐合线对暖湿空气的抬升运动起到动力加强作用,是触发中尺度雨团的根源,也是特大暴雨产生的根源。3)连续性暴雨发生、发展时,高空的反气旋起主导作用;局地短时性暴雨发生时,中低空的气旋辐合起主导作用。4)短时性特大暴雨天气,前期有较强的不稳定层结;连续性暴雨天气刚发生时,其前期存在较强的不稳定层结,在暴雨连续发生过程中不一定有强不稳定层结。5)连续性暴雨需要较强的水汽输送带,局地短时性暴雨不要求有明显的水汽输送。     

Diurnal thermal tides in a non-synchronized hot Jupiter

We perform a linear analysis to investigate the dynamical response of a non-synchronized hot Jupiter to stellar irradiation. In this work, we consider the diurnal Fourier harmonic of the stellar irradiation acting at the top of a radiative layer of a hot Jupiter with no clouds and winds. In the absence of the Coriolis force, the diurnal thermal forcing can excite internal waves propagating into the planet's interior when the thermal forcing period is longer than the sound crossing time of the planet's surface. When the Coriolis effect is taken into consideration, the latitude-dependent stellar heating can excite weak internal waves (g modes) and/or strong baroclinic Rossby waves (buoyant r modes) depending on the asynchrony of the planet. When the planet spins faster than its orbital motion (i.e. retrograde thermal forcing), these waves carry negative angular momentum and are damped by radiative loss as they propagate downwards from the upper layer of the radiative zone. As a result, angular momentum is transferred from the lower layer of the radiative zone to the upper layer and generates a vertical shear. We estimate the resulting internal torques for different rotation periods based on the parameters of HD 209458b.     

The bulk kinetic power of radio jets in active galactic nuclei

Based on the Königl's inhomogeneous jet model, we estimate the jet parameters, such as bulk Lorentz factor Γ, viewing angle θ and electron number density n _e from radio very long-baseline interferometry and X-ray data for a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) assuming that the X-rays are from the jet rather than the intracluster gas. The bulk kinetic power of jets is then calculated using the derived jet parameters. We find a strong correlation between the total luminosity of broad emission lines and the bulk kinetic power of the jets. This result supports the scenario that the accretion process is tightly linked with the radio jets, though how the disc and jet are coupled is not revealed by present correlation analysis. Moreover, we find a significant correlation between the bulk kinetic power and radio extended luminosity. This implies that the emission from the radio lobes is closely related with the energy flux transported through jets from the central part of AGNs.     

Infrared–red cores in nearby elliptical galaxies

We present the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera observations for a sample of local elliptical galaxies to study later stages of active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity. A sample of 36 elliptical galaxies is selected from the Palomar spectroscopic survey. We detect nuclear non-stellar infrared emission in nine of them. There is unambiguous evidence of circumnuclear dust in these nine galaxies in their optical images. We also find a remarkable correlation between the infrared excess emission and the nuclear radio/X-ray emission, suggesting that infrared excess emission is tightly related to nuclear activity. The possible origin of infrared excess emission from hot dust heated by the central AGN is supported by the spectral indices of the infrared excess emission.     

Recent star-forming activity in local elliptical galaxies

The formation and evolution of elliptical galaxies (EGs) are still an open question. In particular, recent observations suggest that EGs are not only simple spheroidal systems of old stars. In this paper, we analyse a sample of EGs selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey in order to study the star-forming activity in local EGs. Among these 487 ellipticals, we find that 13 EGs show unambiguous evidence of recent star formation activity betrayed by conspicuous nebular emission lines. Using the evolutionary stellar population synthesis models and Lick absorption line indices, we derive stellar ages, metallicities and α-element abundances, and thus reconstruct the star formation and chemical evolution history of the star-forming elliptical galaxies (SFEGs) in our sample.
We find that SFEGs have relative younger stellar population age, higher metallicity and lower stellar mass, and that their star formation history can be well described by a recent minor and short starburst superimposed on old stellar component. We also detect 11 E+A galaxies whose stellar population properties are closer to those of quiescent (normal) ellipticals than to star-forming ones. However, from the analysis of their absorption line indices, we note that our E+A galaxies show a significant fraction of intermediate-age stellar populations, remarkably different from the quiescent galaxies. This might suggest an evolutionary link between E+As and star-forming ellipticals. Finally, we confirm the relations between age, metallicity, α-element abundance and stellar mass for local EGs.