基于门限回归的气温对光伏发电量的影响分析

光伏发电与气象要素密切相关,正确认识气象因子对于光伏发电量及其发电效率的影响是进行发电量预测和维持光伏电站稳定运行的重要基础。采用江苏省淮安市某小型光伏电站2018—2020年发电量数据、淮安市太阳辐射观测站数据及光伏电站附近气象站观测数据,分析气温、太阳总辐射等气象因子对光伏发电量的影响。相关性分析结果表明,光伏发电量与太阳总辐射呈极强的正相关,基本随太阳总辐射的变化而变化;与气温、降水分别呈弱的正相关和弱的负相关;与风速几乎无相关。然而,灰色关联度分析显示,光伏发电量还与气温呈现出较高的灰色关联度。进一步分析表明,光伏发电量随太阳总辐射的变化受到气温的明显调制,不同气温下光伏发电效率不同。门限回归分析显示,当气温达到一定阈值时光伏发电效率会出现下降,具体表现为：当气温达到12.1 ℃,光伏发电效率下降26.7%;当气温超过22.8 ℃,光伏发电效率下降43.7%。使用这两个温度阈值建立的TR（Threshold Regression）模型的准确率要比线性回归模型提高约10%。     

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畸形波作用下双层水平板防波堤压力分布特性研究

基于物理模型试验,考虑畸形波参数、相对板宽、相对波高等影响因素,就畸形波对平顶双层水平板防波堤作用进行研究。首先对畸形波作用下双层水平板的波浪力分布特征进行了讨论,然后就最大波动压强、结构最大总垂向力与不规则波作用进行了对比分析。结果表明,畸形波作用下,双层水平板最大波动压力出现在前端迎浪区域附近,向尾端逐渐递减。双层水平板4个受力面的压力分布不同且有相位差,4个受力面的最大波动压力时间差约在0.1T_p~0.4T_p范围内变化。与不规则波作用比较,畸形波作用没有显著改变波压包络分布特征,但增大了波压包络强度值。试验范围内,就最大总力而言,两者最大总浮托力比值在1.06~2.45间变化;向下的最大总垂向力比值在1.22~2.07之间变化;就波动压力而言,其增大的幅度与畸形波参数α₁相关性最强,随α₁的增大而增大,在α₁=2.04~3.1试验范围内,畸形波作用时的最大压强比不规则波作用时可约增大20%~80%。就最大波吸力而言,两者的比值与畸形波参数α₄相关性最强,随α₄的增大而减小。在α₄=0.62~0.75试验范围内,最大波吸力强度的比值在1.61~0.87范围内变化。当α₄≤0.72时,畸形波作用时的最大波吸力大于不规则波作用时的最大波吸力;当α₄ > 0.72时则刚好相反。     

中小流域入库径流影响因素的敏感性分析

根据鲇鱼山水库和陆浑水库实测的月平均流量、气温、降水量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Spearman秩次相关检验、滑动t检验法对两座水库的入库流量进行显著性检验;建立了有关径流-降水-气温的数学模型,并对其敏感性进行了分析.研究结果表明:陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库的入库流量对降水变化的响应比对气温变化的响应更为显著.入库流量与降水变化趋势一致,与气温变化趋势相反,即随降雨量的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减少.     

Diurnal thermal tides in a non-synchronized hot Jupiter

We perform a linear analysis to investigate the dynamical response of a non-synchronized hot Jupiter to stellar irradiation. In this work, we consider the diurnal Fourier harmonic of the stellar irradiation acting at the top of a radiative layer of a hot Jupiter with no clouds and winds. In the absence of the Coriolis force, the diurnal thermal forcing can excite internal waves propagating into the planet's interior when the thermal forcing period is longer than the sound crossing time of the planet's surface. When the Coriolis effect is taken into consideration, the latitude-dependent stellar heating can excite weak internal waves (g modes) and/or strong baroclinic Rossby waves (buoyant r modes) depending on the asynchrony of the planet. When the planet spins faster than its orbital motion (i.e. retrograde thermal forcing), these waves carry negative angular momentum and are damped by radiative loss as they propagate downwards from the upper layer of the radiative zone. As a result, angular momentum is transferred from the lower layer of the radiative zone to the upper layer and generates a vertical shear. We estimate the resulting internal torques for different rotation periods based on the parameters of HD 209458b.     

Infrared–red cores in nearby elliptical galaxies

We present the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera observations for a sample of local elliptical galaxies to study later stages of active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity. A sample of 36 elliptical galaxies is selected from the Palomar spectroscopic survey. We detect nuclear non-stellar infrared emission in nine of them. There is unambiguous evidence of circumnuclear dust in these nine galaxies in their optical images. We also find a remarkable correlation between the infrared excess emission and the nuclear radio/X-ray emission, suggesting that infrared excess emission is tightly related to nuclear activity. The possible origin of infrared excess emission from hot dust heated by the central AGN is supported by the spectral indices of the infrared excess emission.     

Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred....     

昆仑山高原面上的风沙土

海拔4000m~5000m以上的昆仑山高原面上, 有风沙土分布。高原风沙土的特点表现在: 形成历史久, 分布广, 类型多, 植被恢复缓慢.高原面上气候干旱、植被稀疏、大风频繁, 构成了风沙土形成的自然条件。