1961~2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响

搜集并分析了全国29个省份（不包括港、澳、台地区）1961~2010年农业洪旱灾害数据,深入探讨了中国洪旱灾害时空变异规律及其对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明：中国大部分省份农业洪涝、干旱灾害具有明显的突变和趋势特征。中国中部、中西部及西北部洪涝灾害呈显著上升趋势;西北、东北地区及云南等地区干旱灾害呈显著上升趋势。除华北和东北地区外,洪涝灾害对农业的威胁日益严峻,而干旱灾害则无显著变化。这对中国粮食安全形成了重大挑战,尤其是西部以及北部地区粮食灾损率和灾损量显著上升。降水时空分布发生变化以及人类活动共同影响了中国农业洪涝、干旱时空变化特征。     

Molecular structure parameters and thermal stabilities of benzocarbazoles

The distance between 4-H and adjacent H on the substitutional benzene ring in benzo[c]carbazole was calculated in terms of molecular structure parameters. The result showed that the distance is shorter than the sum of van der Vaals＇ radii of two hydrogen atoms. This means that there is a steric hinderance between them. This effect will make the bond angle stretch and the bond length extend, or cause the molecule to distort, thus making benzo[c]carbazoles become unstable in thermodynamics. On the contrary there is no such effect for benzo[a]carbazoles. This conclusion has been confirmed by the result of calculation of the distance between the same two atoms with software GaussView. So the skeleton of benzo[c]carbazoles in sediments may be breached or isomerized with increasing maturity. It is consistent with the decrease of the ratio of benzo[c]carbazole to benzo[a]carbazole in hydrocarbon migration, suggesting that [c]/[a] not only changes with the distance of migration, but also may be influenced by maturity.     

煤层气井下排采参数及其诊断仪研制要点思考

针对我国目前煤层气评价、勘探、开发中尚存在的理论和实践问题,探讨了影响煤层气评价的排采井内压力、密度、温度、水气混合液流量等重要参数和各参数在井筒中的曲线应有形态,以及获得各参数的煤层气井下诊断仪的研制思路．达到了解煤层气储层各部分的实际工作状态的目的,为煤层气排采井的产水和产气层位以及气、水单独流量和相应的压力的定性分析提供依据。     

基于PCA RBF的风电场短期风速订正方法研究

风电功率预测中最重要的因子是风速,准确的风速预测是风电功率预测的前提和基础。为了提高短期风速预测的准确性,本研究采用WRF模式,对我国上海崇明吕四风电场的风速进行预报。在此基础上,利用PCA-RBF算法结合WRF模式预报风向、气温、气压等气象要素对预报风速进一步订正。实验结果表明,利用PCA-RBF算法对WRF模式预报风速进行订正后,预报风速的误差进一步减小,相对均方根误差降低20%~30%,相对平均绝对误差降低15%~20%。与其他智能算法(BP算法、LSSVM算法)对比分析后得出,PCA-RBF算法对WRF模式预报风速具有较好的订正效果,能够有效提高风速预报准确率。