粒子群算法与支持向量机相结合的热带气旋强度预报试验

支持向量机(SVM)的惩罚参数及核参数的选择直接影响到模型效果,通过粒子群算法(PSO)解决支持向量机的参数选择问题,实现了参数选择的自动化。将该方法应用于热带气旋强度预报,利用气候持续性因子,挑选了1990年的100个左右样本进行预报检验,预报时效为12 h、24 h、36 h、48 h的强度平均绝对误差分别为3.00、4.35、4.93和6.68 m/s。另外,还与国外预报结果及采用最小二乘回归法的预报结果进行了效果的比较,SVM方法显示了更好的预报能力。     

Post-Aswan dam sedimentation rate of lagoons of the Nile Delta,Egypt

This study uses radiometric analysis (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) of short sediment cores with high-resolution sampling (1-cm interval) to trace sedimentation rates in the Nile Delta lagoons, particularly since completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1964. A declining trend in ²¹⁰Pb_ex as calculated by the CIC model is clearly identified in about 10 cm of the upper-core sediments from the lagoons of Manzala and Edku, accompanied by two spikes of ¹³⁷Cs in cores from the lagoons of Burullus and Edku. These findings illustrate average post-dam sedimentation rates ranging from 0.22 to 0.27 cm a⁻¹ in the lagoons, in contrast with those found previously based on low-resolution sampling. The lower sedimentation rates in the lagoons are a consequence of a dramatic reduction in riverine sediment load to the coastal area as a result of the damming. Although widespread erosion occurs along the open estuarine coast, the lagoon setting remains calmer than before due to coastal diking and freshwater regulation in the delta plain in the past decades. This provides the possibility of continuously preserved radiometric records in the less-bioturbated lagoon sediments. Dating individual layers using the CRS model has revealed increasing sedimentation rates in Manzala and Burullus since the 1980s, which can largely be explained as a consequence of the reduction in lagoon area due to intensifying reclamation. The post-dam sedimentation in the shrinking lagoons may have some adverse ecological consequences due to finer sediment’s affinity with pollutants. These findings would shed light on the environmental conservation and socioeconomic development in the Nile Delta region.     

叠前同步反演技术在北黄海盆地中生界储层预测中的应用

北黄海盆地中生界目的层埋藏较深,储层纵横向变化快,厚度较薄,砂泥岩速度接近,造成纵波阻抗叠置,单纯依靠叠后纵波阻抗反演预测很难解决岩性区分和储层描述问题,而通过叠前同步反演得到的纵横波速度比和密度参数,进而转换为对岩性和物性敏感的其他参数,能有效区分砂泥岩,进行复杂岩性的识别和储层描述,提供更加准确的储层预测结果。利用叠前同步反演技术,对北黄海盆地中生界储层进行预测,刻画了目的层中砂体的空间几何形态,实现了对储层的精细描述,取得了较好的应用效果。     

区域自动气象站常见故障的维护方法

以HYA-M(四要素以上站)及DSD14(温度、雨量站)为例,介绍区域自动气象站4种常见故障的维护方法.     

黔东南暴雨气候特征及其地形影响

利用1960~2000年贵州省黔东南地区降水观测资料,统计分析黔东南地区暴雨时空分布特征,进一步揭示其活动规律及主要影响因素。结果表明:黔东南地区暴雨有显著年代际变化特征,存在准15年的周期变化,并与贵州降水和长江中下游降水呈同位相;存在两个暴雨多发中心,夜间暴雨较多。黔东南暴雨地域分布极为复杂,局地性暴雨较多,这与黔东南特殊地形有着密切关系,地形因素是影响黔东南地区暴雨的重要原因,对形成上述特征的气候学成因做了初步讨论。     

长江流域径流量变化过程及其对ENSO和PDO的响应

根据宜昌站、汉口站和大通站的径流量数据,运用M-K检验和小波分析等方法,对1900年以来长江流域径流量的趋势和周期变化进行分析,探究径流量变化对厄尔尼诺?南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的响应。结果表明：1900 年以来长江流域径流量呈显著的减少趋势,并具有2~8 a的年际周期变化和14~17 a的年代际周期变化。流域径流量与ENSO具有相同的2~8 a周期变化,在El Ni?o发生期,径流量较低,在La Ni?a发生期,径流量较高。14~17 a的周期变化与PDO相关,在暖位相期径流量偏少,在冷位相期径流量偏多。PDO影响着ENSO和径流量之间的相关性,在暖位相期,El Ni?o对径流量的影响增强,在冷位相期,La Ni?a对径流量的影响增强。因此,在分析和预测流域径流量长时间尺度上的变化时要综合考虑ENSO和PDO的影响。     

Comparison of ciliature microtubule organelles in three hypotrichous ciliate species

We examined the structure and spatial organization of ciliature base-associated microtubules (BAM) in three hypotrichous ciliates (Stylonychia mytilus, Pseudourostyla cristata, Euplotes woodruffi) in fluorescence microscopy. The results revealed that BAM, including the anterior (ALM), posterior longitudinal microtubule (PLM) and the transverse microtubule (TM) bands, are composed of tubulin. The respective microtubular bands have cytoplasmic polarization patterns that are significantly asymmetric. The BAM of the midventral files in P. cristata appear cord-shaped compared with the ALM bands of transverse cirri in both S. mytilus and E. woodruffi, which extend to the left anterior side of the cell before converging. The TM bands of the left marginal cirri (MC) in S. mytilus extend to the right side of the cell, while those of the right MC bands extend to the left. Our observations suggest that BAM traits are common in hypotrichous ciliates even though different species possess different microtubule arrangements related to the conserved cirral morphogenetic patterns in the respective species. The differing development of BAM in the three ciliate suggests that the microtubules may be conserved in different hypotrichs. We have also demonstrated that the BAM, which appear polar and asymmetric, are localized in specific cytoskeletal positions and extend in different orientations within the cortex to connect with other ciliature-associated structures and, thus, strengthen the cortex. These BAM features indicate that they are directly associated with cell motion.     

巴楚县冬小麦生育期气温变化及其对小麦产量的影响

利用新疆巴楚气象站1984—2013年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、趋势系数、异常度、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了巴楚县多时间尺度气温的变化特征对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响。结果表明:近30 a巴楚县冬季、春季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中春季平均气温上升趋势显著,并于1998年发生了增暖性突变;寒冷日和酷冷日数均呈减少趋势,其中寒冷日数在1996年发生了减少性突变;稳定通过0℃界限温度的初日表现为提前、终日表现为推迟,持续日数则相应表现为增加趋势;日最高气温≥30℃日数呈增加趋势;冬小麦生长季内前期气温偏低,后期气温偏高是影响小麦产量的主要气候因子,其中抽穗、开花期的平均气温与小麦产量显著相关。     

黄海溶解氧垂直分布的最大值

海洋溶解氧垂直分布中的最大值,正如最小值一样,亦为溶解氧垂直分布中的一个突出的现象.对于这一现象,不同的研究者作出了不同的解释.Thompson在太平洋北部及东北部25-50M处观测到氧最大值层,他们认为这一氧最大值层,是与光合带相适应的.对鄂霍次克海中氧的最大值的形成,绘出了一个假设的图,认为夏季氧垂直分布中的最大值,是由于在跃层形成时期,浮游植物光合作用时,大量的氧从上面渗入到稍下的层内,随着增温时该处稳定密度层的形成,垂直交换困难,因而氧即被保持下耒,形成了夏季最大值.Ichiye认为,密度跃层中的氧最大值,是由于氧的涡动扩散,要进行得比热的涡动传导为慢的缘故.     

电网负荷特性分析与预测探讨

利用武汉市2013—2018年逐15 min精细化电力负荷数据及武汉市日降水、气温等气象资料,统计分析电力负荷特征指标,探寻电力负荷的构成、变化规律及其与气象因子的关系。研究结果表明: (1) 近年来武汉市电力负荷和日负荷峰谷差屡破新高,夏季高温持续时间和强度大小对空调负荷影响最为显著。电力负荷随季节变化呈现出明显的“双峰双谷”特征。(2) 夏季电力负荷远高于其它三季,冬季次之。四季日变化特征总体呈现“昼高夜低”的分布。(3) 工作日和双休日负荷明显高于节假日,工作日负荷略高于双休日,其中工作日的早高峰负荷最大,而双休日和节假日的晚高峰负荷最大。(4) 气象因子对全社会用电量影响尤为重要。夏季气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的关系最密切,当平均气温高于初始敏感值和强敏感值时,电力负荷随气温上升增幅更加明显。(5) 无论是否出现降水,夏季气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的关系都很密切。无降水天气,负荷与日平均气温相关性最高;有降水发生时,气象敏感负荷与日平均气温的相关性呈下降趋势,总体反映出降水影响气温、气温影响电力负荷的物理过程和机制。