Validation of Galileo orbits using SLR with a focus on satellites launched into incorrect orbital planes

The space segment of the European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Galileo consists of In-Orbit Validation (IOV) and Full Operational Capability (FOC) spacecraft. The first pair of FOC satellites was launched into an incorrect, highly eccentric orbital plane with a lower than nominal inclination angle. All Galileo satellites are equipped with satellite laser ranging (SLR) retroreflectors which allow, for example, for the assessment of the orbit quality or for the SLR–GNSS co-location in space. The number of SLR observations to Galileo satellites has been continuously increasing thanks to a series of intensive campaigns devoted to SLR tracking of GNSS satellites initiated by the International Laser Ranging Service. This paper assesses systematic effects and quality of Galileo orbits using SLR data with a main focus on Galileo satellites launched into incorrect orbits. We compare the SLR observations with respect to microwave-based Galileo orbits generated by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) in the framework of the International GNSS Service Multi-GNSS Experiment for the period 2014.0–2016.5. We analyze the SLR signature effect, which is characterized by the dependency of SLR residuals with respect to various incidence angles of laser beams for stations equipped with single-photon and multi-photon detectors. Surprisingly, the CODE orbit quality of satellites in the incorrect orbital planes is not worse than that of nominal FOC and IOV orbits. The RMS of SLR residuals is even lower by 5.0 and 1.5 mm for satellites in the incorrect orbital planes than for FOC and IOV satellites, respectively. The mean SLR offsets equal \(-44.9, -35.0\), and \(-22.4\) mm for IOV, FOC, and satellites in the incorrect orbital plane. Finally, we found that the empirical orbit models, which were originally designed for precise orbit determination of GNSS satellites in circular orbits, provide fully appropriate results also for highly eccentric orbits with variable linear and angular velocities.     

Estimation of radar-rainfall error spatial correlation

The study presents a theoretical framework for estimating the radar-rainfall error spatial correlation (ESC) using data from relatively dense rain gauge networks. The error is defined as the difference between the radar estimate and the corresponding true areal rainfall. The method is analogous to the error variance separation that corrects the error variance of a radar-rainfall product for gauge representativeness errors. The study demonstrates the necessity to consider the area–point uncertainties while estimating the spatial correlation structure in the radar-rainfall errors. To validate the method, the authors conduct a Monte Carlo simulation experiment with synthetic fields with known error spatial correlation structure. These tests reveal that the proposed method, which accounts for the area–point distortions in the estimation of radar-rainfall ESC, performs very effectively. The authors then apply the method to estimate the ESC of the National Weather Service’s standard hourly radar-rainfall products, known as digital precipitation arrays (DPA). Data from the Oklahoma Micronet rain gauge network (with the grid step of about 5 km) are used as the ground reference for the DPAs. This application shows that the radar-rainfall errors are spatially correlated with a correlation distance of about 20 km. The results also demonstrate that the spatial correlations of radar–gauge differences are considerably underestimated, especially at small distances, as the area–point uncertainties are ignored.     

Thermal synchrotron radiation and its Comptonization in compact X-ray sources

We investigate the process of synchrotron radiation from thermal electrons at semirelativistic and relativistic temperatures. We find an analytic expression for the emission coefficient for random magnetic fields with an accuracy significantly higher than those derived previously. We also present analytic approximations to the synchrotron turnover frequency, treat Comptonization of self-absorbed synchrotron radiation, and give simple expressions for the spectral shape and the emitted power. We also consider modifications of the above results by bremsstrahlung.
We then study the importance of Comptonization of thermal synchrotron radiation in compact X-ray sources. We first consider emission from hot accretion flows and active coronae above optically thick accretion discs in black hole binaries and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We find that for plausible values of the magnetic field strength, this radiative process is negligible in luminous sources, except for those with hardest X-ray spectra and stellar masses. Increasing the black hole mass results in a further reduction of the maximum Eddington ratio from this process. Then, X-ray spectra of intermediate-luminosity sources, e.g. low-luminosity AGNs, can be explained by synchrotron Comptonization only if they come from hot accretion flows, and X-ray spectra of very weak sources are always dominated by bremsstrahlung. On the other hand, synchrotron Comptonization can account for power-law X-ray spectra observed in the low states of sources around weakly magnetized neutron stars.     

Model for prediction of sea dike breaching initiated by breaking wave impact

A computational model system is proposed for the prediction of sea dike breaching initiated from the seaward side by breaking wave impact with the focus on the application of the model system for the estimation failure probability of the defence structure. The described model system is built using a number of existing models for the calculation of grass, clay, and sand erosion. The parameters identified as those having the most significant influence on the estimation of the failure have been described stochastically. Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties of the relevant input parameters and the model itself have been performed and the probabilities of the breach initiation and of the full dike breaching have been calculated. This will form the basis to assess the coastal flood risk due to dike breaching.     

Stepwise atmospheric carbon-isotope excursion during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (Early Jurassic,Polish Basin)

During the Mesozoic (250–64 Ma) intervals of about 0.5 Myr were subject to severe environmental changes, including high sea-surface temperature and very low oxygen content of marine water. These Oceanic Anoxic Events, or OAEs, occurred simultaneously with profound disturbance to the carbon cycle. The carbon-isotope anomaly in the Early Jurassic that marks the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE) at ~ 182 Ma is characterized in marine sections by a series of dramatic steps towards lighter values. Herein we present new carbon-isotope data from terrestrial organic matter (phytoclast separates), collected through a Late Pliensbachian–Middle Toarcian coastal and marginal marine succession in the Polish Basin, a setting where hinterland climate and sea-level change are well recorded. The results show that the shift to light carbon-isotope values in the woody organic matter, and therefore also in atmospheric carbon dioxide, similarly occurred in major steps. The steps are here correlated with those identified from marine organic matter, where they have previously been attributed to 100 kyr eccentricity forcing of climate. The results provide strong support for orbitally and climatically controlled release of isotopically light carbon from gas hydrates into the ocean–atmosphere system in a series of rapid bursts. Additionally, a link between the carbon-isotope steps and shoreline movements can be demonstrated. Individual peaks of the negative excursion are mostly associated with facies indicative of sea-level rise (flooding surfaces). However, at the same time inferred higher atmospheric carbon-dioxide content may be expected to have resulted in increased rainfall and temperature, leading to accelerated weathering and erosion, and consequently increased sediment supply, progradation and regression, causing some mismatches between isotope shifts and inferred sea-level changes. Enhanced abundance of megaspores derived from hydrophilic plant groups, and marked increase in kaolinite, are coincident with the overall development of the negative isotope excursion. The combined data suggest that each 100-kyr cycle in carbon-isotope values was characterized by increasingly severe palaeoclimatic change, culminating in extremely hot and humid conditions co-incident with the peak of the final most negative carbon-isotope excursion. The chemostratigraphic correlation allows very precise dating of the Late Pliensbachian–Middle Toarcian coastal and marginal marine sedimentary succession in the Polish Basin.     

A Study of Non-Gravitational Effects of Comet C/1995 O1 HALE–BOPP

The role of non-gravitational forces in the evolution of orbitalmotion of C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp) has been investigated. Inorbital calculations the observational material covering theperiod from April 1993 up to August 2001 was used. To model thenon-gravitational acceleration, observed and theoretical profilesof the H₂O production rates were employed. A set of forcedprecession models of a rotating cometary nucleus consistent withthe observed spin axis orientation was fitted to positionalobservations. The non-gravitational models allowed us to constrainthe mass and radius of the comet. The orbitalevolution of Comet Hale–Bopp was investigated over ±400 k yusing two sets of randomly varied orbital elements wellrepresenting all positional observations in the pure gravitationalcase, as well as in the non-gravitational case. The calculationsshowed that the comet's motion is predictable only over an interval ofa few orbital periods. The statistical conclusions changesignificantly when non-gravitational effects are included in the analysis.     

How cold was it for Neanderthals moving to Central Europe during warm phases of the last glaciation?

Precise estimates of mean annual temperature (MAT) for when Neanderthals occupied Central Europe are critical for understanding the role that climatic and associated environmental factors played in Neanderthal migrations and in their ultimate extinction. Neanderthals were continuously present in the relatively warm regions of southern and Western Europe in the Pleistocene but only temporarily settled Central Europe (CE), presumably because of its colder and less hospitable climate. Here, we present a new approach for more spatially and temporally accurate estimation of palaeotemperatures based on the stable oxygen isotope composition of phosphates extracted from animal teeth found at sites linked directly to concurrent Neanderthal occupation. We provide evidence that Neanderthals migrated along the Odra Valley of CE during warmer periods throughout the Upper Pleistocene. The MATs during these migrations were about 6.8 °C for the warm phase of Oxygen Isotope Stage OIS 5a–d (prior to the OIS4 cold event) at ～115–74,000 yr BP and about 6.3 °C during the early OIS 3 warm phase ～59–41,000 yr BP. Our results show that temperatures during these phases peaked 2–4 °C above longer term estimates from ice cores and pollen records. We argue that our approach can provide valuable insights into evaluating the role of climate in human migration patterns in the Pleistocene.     

Long-term evolution of Baltic Sea wave climate near a coastal segment in Poland; its drivers and impacts

The paper analyses long-term variability of wave climate near Poland for the 1958–2002 period. With spectral and cross-spectral analysis, linear regression and singular spectrum analysis the modes of long-term variability were quantified for the most energetic months (November–February). For monthly indices of North Atlantic Oscillation from 1950 until 2006, it was established that the long-term trends of NAO and significant wave height demonstrate a gentle coupling. For Januaries this relationship is strongest and dates back to 1960, for Februaries a certain consistency appears since 1975. For Novembers and Decembers no statistically discernible coupling was found. Thus, the Baltic Sea appears to be the easternmost NAO-affected region, despite its separation from the Atlantic. The hydrodynamic variability also includes a non-trivial oscillation in the January wave energy records with T=8 years. The same periodicity was identified with the multi-channel SSA technique in the long-term shoreline data of a neighboring beach. The study shows that even almost entirely isolated water bodies are becoming exposed to global climatic phenomena and accelerated erosion of sandy beaches, typical for the South Baltic region. On the other hand, the 8-year hydrodynamic cycle can be viewed as the driver of long-term shoreline evolution.     

Comparative studies of organic matter petrography of the late palaeozoic black shales from Southwestern Poland

There are at least two sapropelic units associated with Late Palaeozoic black shales in Central Europe. The older unit, of Late Carboniferous age, is the lower part of the Anthracosia Shales in the Intrasudetic Basin, and the younger one is the well-known Zechstein Kupferschiefer in both the Foresudetic Monocline and the Northsudetic Basin. The first unit is of lacustrine origin, while the second one represents deposition in a shallow marine depositional environment. Both units contain high amounts of organic matter, thus being typical black shales.The organic matter dispersed in these shales was studied petrographically. In general, the vitrinite reflectance of the shales studied indicates variable, but moderate organic matter maturity (0.68–1.25%), equivalent to the oil window. Detailed microscopic studies of the organic material dispersed in the lower unit of the Anthracosia Shales showed that liptinite, especially alginite is the most abundant component. Secondary altered organic matter, i.e. solid hydrocarbons, rarely occurs. Organic components together with mineral matter constitute a lacustrine sapropelic association, a humic (terrestrial) association and an intermediary association. The character and predominance of alginite and lacustrine sapropelic association are indicative of an open-lacustrine depositional environment. In general, this organic composition is typical of type I kerogen.Microscopic analysis of the Kupferschiefer revealed a mixture of liptinite, vitrinite and inertinite macerals, and other organic components such as amorphous sapropelic mass (ASM) and solid bitumens. The most common organic components are liptinite macerals. Bituminite and alginite predominate, and are diagnostic macerals of this unit. The amount of bituminite locally exceeds 85 vol.%. Other liptinite macerals such as sporinite and liptodetrinite, are present in significantly lower amounts, one exception being ASM, which may be present in higher amounts. Humic constituents (vitrinite and inertinite) are rare, present in small amounts in the Kupferschiefer beds. The organic matter composition points to type II kerogen for this unit.