Modeling and forecast of the polar motion excitation functions for short-term polar motion prediction

Short-term forecast of the polar motion is considered by introducing a prediction model for the excitation function that drives the polar motion dynamics. The excitation function model consists of a slowly varying trend, periodic modes with annual and several sub-annual frequencies (down to the 13.6-day fortnightly tidal period), and a transient decay function with a time constant of 1.5 days. Each periodic mode is stochastically specified using a second-order auto-regression process, allowing its frequency, phase, and amplitude to vary in time within a statistical tolerance. The model is used to time-extrapolate the excitation function series, which is then used to generate a polar motion forecast dynamically. The skills of this forecast method are evaluated by comparison to the C-04 polar motion series. Over the lead-time horizon of four months, the proposed method has performed equally well to some of the state-of-art polar motion prediction methods, none of which specifically features forecasting of the excitation function. The annual mode in the ₂ component is energetically the most dominant periodicity. The modes with longer periods, annual and semi-annual in particular, are found to contribute more significantly to forecast accuracy than those with shorter periods.     

The outermost ob associations in M33

The blink survey ofUBVR plates of the Tautenburg Schmidt telescope reveals about 20 new stellar associations. A few suspected associations are located at 8 kpc from the center of M33. The new associations fit well into the spiral structure of the galaxy.     

Space use by Rhabdosargus holubi in a southern African estuary,with emphasis on fish movements and ecosystem connectivity

Twenty-one juvenile Cape stumpnose Rhabdosargus holubi (140–190 mm fork length) were tagged with internal acoustic transmitters in the lower, middle and upper reaches of the Kowie Estuary, South Africa. The movements of each fish were continually monitored from October 2014 to February 2015 using 22 stationary data-logging acoustic receivers situated at approximately equidistant intervals along the length of the estuary (21 km). Juvenile R. holubi spent the greatest proportion of time within the estuarine environment (83%), with the sea (16%) and riverine (1%) environments used to a much lesser extent. Within the estuarine environment, tagged individuals showed high levels of residency and fidelity to their capture and release sites; however, the degree of residency was dependent on the position of the release site, with batches in the upper and lower reaches exhibiting different space-use patterns. When larger juvenile R. holubi migrated back to the sea for the next phase of their life cycle, they generally did not return to the estuarine environment, thus indicating a permanent ontogenetic shift in habitat use with the onset of sexual maturity. This contribution to our understanding of the ecology of a ubiquitous estuarine fish further highlights the importance of estuarine habitats as nursery areas that require effective management.     

Effects of a Total Solar Eclipse on the Mesoscale Atmospheric Circulation over Europe – A Model Experiment

Summary ?On August the 11th, 1999 Central Europe saw a spectacular astronomical event, a total solar eclipse. We present a model study concerning the meteorological effects of this eclipse in central Europe using the state-of-the-art limited area forecast model Deutschland-Modell DM from the German Weather Service DWD. Under typical summer radiation conditions very strong anomalies in the surface energy flux and temperature in screen height are simulated. The main temperature signal in the lower troposphere is delayed by about one hour with respect to the surface. Furthermore it is connected with a well defined dynamical signal which is reminiscent to a large scale land – sea circulation. The event could be used as a test case for mesoscale atmospheric models. Received February 19, 1999/Revised May 18, 1999     

On Modeling Dry Deposition of Long-Lived and Chemically Reactive Species over Heterogeneous Terrain

An explicit multi-layer subgrid-scheme was developed for ameso-/-scale model to consider subgrid-scale surface heterogeneity, dry deposition, biogenic and anthropogenic emission of trace gases. Since dry deposition measurements of highly reactive trace species are scarce we try to evaluate this scheme by heuristic principles. The results of simulations conducted for a 5×5 km² resolution with and without thisscheme are evaluated by using results of a model run with 1×1 km²resolution, which is taken as a `grand thruth' and which has the same resolution as the subgrid. The explict multi-layer subgrid scheme provides a similar distribution of dry deposition fluxes as the much more computationally expensive simulation with the 1×1 km² resolution.Dry deposition fluxes determined from observations give evidence that the explicit multi-layer subgrid scheme which does not require a constant flux approximation for a layer of several decameters leads to an improvement in determining the exchange between the atmosphere and the ground.Results of simulations with a microscale model show that the inhomogeneity at forest edges leads to an increase of the turbulent transports of up to a factor 4 compared to horizontally homogeneous terrain, which is assumed to be the conditions of the subgrid cells (and which is usually the assumption for the entire grid cell in mesoscale models). Inhomogeneity inside an extended stand of trees causes an overall increase of 5–10% withhigh local extremes, i.e. such an inhomogeneity results to an underestimation of dry deposition in meso-/-scale models. The effects are most pronounced for a wind direction perpendicular to the forest edge.