Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

No significant post-Eocene rotation of the Moesian Platform and Rhodope (Bulgaria): Implications for the kinematic evolution of the Carpathian and Aegean arcs

The region located between the Carpathian–Balkan and Aegean arcs, the Moesian Platform and Bulgarian Rhodope, is generally assumed to have been stably attached to the East European craton during the Cenozoic evolution of these arcs. The kinematic evolution of this region is, however, poorly constrained by paleomagnetic analysis. In this paper we provide new paleomagnetic data (800 volcanic and sedimentary samples from 12 localities) showing no significant post-Eocene rotation of the Moesian platform and Rhodope with respect to Eurasia, therefore confirming the stability of this region. We compare this result to a provided review of paleomagnetic data from the South Carpathians (Tisza block) and the Aegean region. The Tisza block underwent 68.4 ± 16.7° of middle Miocene ( 15–10 Ma) clockwise rotation with respect to the Moesian Platform, in line with previous rotation estimates based on structural geology. The stability of the Moesian platform during middle Miocene eastward emplacement of the Tisza block into the Carpathian back-arc supports dextral shear along the Southern Carpathians recorded by 13–6 Ma clockwise strike-slip related rotations in foreland deposits. The new reference direction for the Moesian platform and Rhodope allows accurate quantification of the rotation difference with the west Aegean domain at 38.0 ± 7.2° occurring between 15 and 8 Ma. To accommodate this rotation, we propose that the pivot point of the west-Aegean rotation was located approximately in the middle of the rotating domain rather than at the northern tip as previously proposed. This new scenario predicts less extension southeast of the pivot point, in good agreement with estimates from Aegean structural geology. Northwest of the pivot point, the model requires contraction or extrusion that can be accommodated by the coeval motion of the Tisza Block around the northwestern edge of the Moesian platform.     

A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L⁻¹) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×10⁶ cells L⁻¹ in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 μE m⁻² s⁻¹ isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L⁻¹. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.     

High pressure phase relations of primitive high-alumina basalts from Medicine Lake volcano,northern California

Anhydrous phase relations were determined at 1 atm and 10 to 15 kbar for primitive high-alumina basalts (79–35g and 82–72f) from Giant Crater at Medicine Lake volcano. These compositions are multiply saturated with olivine+augite+plagioclase+spinel+/-orthopyroxene near the liquidus at about 11 kbar. Experiments on mixtures of sample 79–35g with orthopyroxene and olivine determined the location of the multiple saturation boundaries where liquid coexists with the assemblage olivine+augite+orthopyroxene+plagioclase at 10 kbar and olivine+augite+orthopyroxene+spinel at 15 kbar. The mix experiments showed that primitive Medicine Lake high alumina basalts (HABs) are close in composition to liquids in equilibrium with a mantle lherzolite source containing olivine+augite+ orthopyroxene+spinel+plagioclase at 11 kbar. Orthopyroxene observed as a near liquidus phase in an 11 kbar experiment on sample 82–72f supports this conclusion. The most primitive HABs from Medicine Lake are low in K₂O (0.07 wt.%), high in MgO (>10 wt.%) and Ni (231 ppm), and have light-rare earth element depletions and large ion lithophile element enrichments. A model for the origin of these near-primary high-alumina basalts is that they are partial melts of a MORB-like mantle lherzolite source that has been enriched by a fluid component derived from the subducted slab. The HAB magma segregated from its mantle residue just below the base of the crust near the crust-mantle boundary.     

Interdisciplinary and participatory approaches: the key to effective groundwater management

The challenges of a changing world, which are progressively threatening sustainable use of groundwater resources, can only be rationally and effectively addressed through close collaboration between experts and practitioners from different disciplines. Furthermore, science and management need to build on stakeholder opinions and processes in order to generate useful knowledge and positive outcomes in terms of sustainable and equitable groundwater management. This essay provides a discussion of the status of and vision for participatory and inter-disciplinary approaches to groundwater evaluation and management as well as a conceptual framework and relevant research questions that will facilitate such approaches.     

Sources of Nutrients and Fecal Indicator Bacteria to Nearshore Waters on the North Shore of Kaua`i (Hawai`i,USA)

Water quality monitoring in Hanalei Bay, Kaua`i (Hawai`i, USA) has documented intermittent high concentrations of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, silica, and ammonium) and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB, i.e., enterococci and Escherichia coli) in nearshore waters and spurred concern that contaminated groundwater might be discharging into the bay. The present study sought to identify and track sources of nutrients and FIB to four beaches in Hanalei Bay and one beach outside the bay, together representing a wide range of land uses. ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra activity, salinity, nutrient and FIB concentrations were measured in samples from the coastal aquifer, the nearshore ocean, springs, the Hanalei River, and smaller streams. In addition, FIB concentrations in beach sands were measured at each site, and the enterococcal surface protein (esp) gene assay was used to investigate whether the observed FIB originated from a human source. Nutrient concentrations in groundwater were significantly higher than in nearshore water, inversely correlated to salinity, and highly site specific, indicating local controls on groundwater quality. Fluxes of groundwater into Hanalei Bay were calculated using a mass-balance approach and represented at least 2–10% of river discharges. However, submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) may provide 2.7 times as much nitrate + nitrite to Hanalei Bay as does the Hanalei River. It may also provide significant fluxes of phosphate and ammonium, comprising 15% and 20% of Hanalei River inputs, respectively. SGD-derived silica inputs to the bay comprised less than 3% of Hanalei River inputs. FIB concentrations in groundwater were typically lower than those in nearshore water, suggesting that significant FIB inputs from SGD are unlikely. Positive esp gene assays suggested that some enterococci in environmental samples were of human fecal origin. Identifying how nutrients and FIB enter nearshore waters will help environmental managers address pressing water quality issues, including exceedances of the state Enterococcus water quality standard and nutrient loading to coral reefs.     

Fingerprinting of soil organic matter as a proxy for assessing climate and vegetation changes in last interglacial palaeosols (Veldwezelt, Belgium)

Soil characteristics in palaeosols are an important source of information on past climate and vegetation. Fingerprinting of soil organic matter (SOM) by pyrolysis-GC/MS is assessed as a proxy for palaeo-reconstruction in the complex of humic layers on top of the Rocourt pedosequence in the Veldwezelt-Hezerwater outcrop (Belgian loess belt). The fingerprints of the extractable SOM of different soil units are related to total organic carbon content, δ¹³C and grain-size analysis. Combined results indicate that the lower unit of the humic complex reflects a stable soil surface, allowing SOM build-up, intensive microbial activity and high decomposition. Higher in the profile, decomposition and microbial activity decrease. This is supported by a shift in the isotopic signal, an increased U ratio and evidence of wildfires. Although the chemical composition of the extracted SOM differed greatly from recent SOM, fingerprinting yielded detailed new information on SOM degree of decomposition and microbial contribution, allowing the reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions during pedogenesis.     

古代淀粉鉴别的新方法—耐热性α淀粉酶降解法

目前古代淀粉粒鉴别的两种方法,即显微镜观察法和碘着色测试法,均不能确保鉴别的准确性。针对耐热性α-淀粉酶只对淀粉产生降解的特点,设计出古代淀粉粒鉴别的"耐热性α-淀粉酶降解法",并运用到考古样品中淀粉粒的分析和鉴定之中。本文详细介绍了耐热性α-淀粉酶降解法的原理和流程,并通过古代淀粉粒的鉴别实验,确定了该方法在确切鉴别考古样品中淀粉粒的实用性和有效性; 同时现代大麦和莲藕淀粉粒的降解实验结果表明不同植物来源以及同种植物内部不同粒径的淀粉粒其降解速率存在明显差异,而古代淀粉粒在耐热性α-淀粉酶作用下出现的降解速率差异的现象,或可揭示古代淀粉粒的植物来源,甚至长期埋藏对其产生的影响。     

Integrated mapping of groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region

Groundwater drought denotes the condition and hazard during a prolonged meteorological drought when groundwater resources decline and become unavailable or inaccessible for human use. Groundwater drought risk refers to the combined physical risk and human vulnerability associated with diminished groundwater availability and access during drought. An integrated management support tool, GRiMMS, is presented, for the mapping and assessment of relative groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Based on composite mapping analysis of region-wide gridded relative indices of meteorological drought risk, hydrogeological drought proneness and human groundwater drought vulnerability, the mapping results highlight consistent areas across the region with highest groundwater drought risk and populations in the order of 39 million at risk of groundwater drought at present. Projective climate-model results suggest a potentially significant negative impact of climate change on groundwater drought risk. The tool provides a means for further attention to the key, but neglected, role of groundwater in drought management in Africa.     

Macroalgal distribution patterns in a shallow, soft-bottom lagoon, with emphasis on the nonnativeGracilaria vermiculophylla andCodium fragile

We determined the distribution of macroalgae in Hog Island Bay, a shallow coastal lagoon in Virginia, USA, seasonally at 12 sites from 1998 to 2000 and at 3 representative sites from 2000 to 2002. We analyzed macroalgal biomass, taxonomic richness, and abundance of two non-native species, the cryptic invaderGracilaria vermiculophylla and the conspicuousCodium fragile, with respect to season, location (mainland, mid lagoon, barrier island sites), and elevation (intertidal, subtidal). Taxonomic richness, total algal biomass, and nonnative biomass peaked in the summer months when temperature and light availability were highest. A few stress tolerant and ephemeral algae dominated the algal assemblage.G. vermiculophylla constituted 74% of the entire algal biomass, was the most abundant alga in all seasons, locations, and elevation levels, and was positively correlated with taxonomic richness and abundance of filamentous species.Ulva curvata, Bryopsis plumosa, andC. fragile accounted for an additional 16% of the algal biomass. There are distinct habitats in Hog Island Bay that can be classified into low diversity-low biomass regions near the mainland and barrier islands and high diversity-high biomass regions in the open mid lagoon, where abundant shells for attachment and intermediate levels of water column nutrients and turbidity likely create better growth conditions. Taxonomic richness and biomass were higher in subtidal than intertidal zones, presumably due to lower desiccation stress. This study provides an example of how a single invasive species can dominate an entire assemblage, both in terms of biomass (being most abundant in all seasons, locations, and tidal levels) and species richness (correlating positively with epiphytic filamentous taxa). By adding hard-substratum structural complexity to a relatively homogenous soft-substratum system,G. vermiculophylla increases substratum availability for attachment and entanglement of other algal species and enhances local diversity. Without widespread and abundantG. vermiculophylla, taxa likePolysiphonia, Ceramium, Bryopsis, Ectocarpus, andChampia would likely be much less common. This study also highlights the importance of using DNA analysis of voucher specimens in monitoring programs to accurately identify cryptic invaders.