Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Feasibility of AFC models for the petrogenesis of calc-alkaline magma series

 One of the most popular petrogenetic concepts is that of simultaneous assimilation and fractional crystallisation (AFC). The equations governing these processes are well known and widely applied. The power and attraction of the model are that, with the minimum of constraints, petrogenetic schemes can be erected for essentially any group of rocks. These models are usually based on the observed variations in a small number of trace elements and/or isotopic systems. In this paper we have generated well-constrained AFC models for the Variscan, calc-alkaline Quérigut complex in the French Pyrénées. Our models are based on geological constraints on the identities of the parent magma and candidate assimilants, and the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isotope systematics of the rocks. The modelling is successful in mimicking the isotope array for the actual rocks. However, the results are massively inconsistent with those produced using the major- and trace-element concentrations. Our major conclusion is that AFC modelling should be undertaken only with robust initial constraints on the compositions of the parent magma and the proposed assimilant, with due respect for crystal-liquid partition coefficients, in so far as they are known. The results should then be accepted only if the isotope-based model parameters are consistent with those derived from major- and trace-element variations. Received: 19 August 1994/Accepted: 23 March 1995     

Seeing Conditions at Sutherland. Results of the 1992/93 seeing campaign

In order to decide whether the seeing conditions at SAAO/Sutherland justify the erection of a 3.5 m telescope and also to compare Sutherland with the Gamsberg/Namibia site, a seeing campaign covering 15 months has been carried out. For direct comparison with the results of the seeing campaign at Gamsberg twenty years before the same QUESTAR telescope was employed. The seeing is determined by the scattering of the star-trail exposed on a film in the focal plane of the telescope. The campaign commenced in February 1992. Up to May 1993, data for 204 nights, that is 47.3% of the total number of nights, were collected. Due to wind speeds above 30 km h^-1, 25 out of the 204 nights were not considered in the final reduction. The useful 179 nights are evenly distributed over the campaign period. The median seeing value for the whole period is = 0.52. There are differences during the year: the best season gives = 0.42, the worst = 0.67. Each night was divided into three intervals, although data for each of the three intervals were not always available. Generally, there is an improvement in the seeing during the course of a night. The results are compared to the seeing values of Gamsberg/Namibia and ESO/La Silla.     

Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

We present a 3 million year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of 400 years. Geochemical data validate this record of hematite content as a proxy for the supply of aeolian dust from the Sahara. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derives from the eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed (21°N). In corroboration of earlier work, we relate dust flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from green Sahara climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration recurred during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short (100-kyr) and long (400-kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the 41-kyr (obliquity) cycle, which we discuss in terms of high- and low-latitude mechanisms that involve Southern Hemisphere meridional temperature contrasts and shifts in the latitudes of the tropics, respectively. We also observe a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the mid-Pleistocene transition (0.95 Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale climate variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets.     

Radar determination of the spatial structure of hydraulic conductivity

Spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity exerts a predominant control on the flow of fluid through porous media. Heterogeneities influence advective pathways, hydrodynamic dispersion, and density-dependent dispersion; they are, therefore, a key concern for studies of ground water resource development, contaminant transport, and reservoir engineering. Ground-penetrating radar contributes to the remote, geophysical characterization of the macroscale variability of natural porous media. On a controlled excavation of a glacial-fluvial sand and gravel deposit in the Fanshawe Delta area (Ontario, Canada), the hydraulic conductivity field of a 45 x 3 m vertical exposure was characterized using constant-head permeameter measurements performed on undisturbed horizontal sediment cores. Ground-penetrating radar data were collected along the excavation face in the form of both reflection and common midpoint surveys. Comparison of geostatistical analyses of the permeameter measurements and the radar data suggests thatthe horizontal correlation structure of radar stack velocity can be used to directly infer the horizontal correlation structure of hydraulic conductivity. The averaging nature of the common midpoint survey is manifest in the vertical correlation structure of stack velocity, making it less useful. Radar reflection data do not exhibit a spatial structure similar to that of hydraulic conductivity possibly because reflections are a result of material property contrasts rather than the material properties themselves.     

ION–Neutral Collisions Effect on MHD Surface Waves

The effect of ion–neutral collisions on the propagation of MHD waves and surface waves at a single magnetic interface is investigated. The dispersion equations for MHD waves in a partially ionized medium are derived. There are three damped propagating modes in a uniform unbounded medium: an Alfvén mode, and fast and slow modes. The damping of waves depends on both the collisional frequency and the ionization fraction. Wave damping increases as ionization fraction decreases. Surface waves are discussed in three cases: (a) the incompressible limit, (b) the low plasma, and (c) for parallel propagation. The incompressible limit leads to Alfvén surface waves in a partially ionized medium and the dispersion characteristics are similar to those obtained by Uberoi and Datta. In the low plasma of the Earth's auroral F region there are two damped propagating magnetoacoustic surface waves for =/3. There is only one damped surface mode for =/2, but no surface wave is able to propagate for =0°. For the case of parallel propagation (=0°) the results obtained in the absence of ion-neutral collisions are consistent with the results of Jain and Roberts. It is found that a three-mode structure of damped propagating waves occurs owing to ion–neutral collisions for a comparatively high ionization fraction. For the case of the solar photosphere, where the ionization fraction is low, two weakly damped surface waves are found, though the damping is almost negligible. The pattern of propagation is similar to that found in the case discussed by Jain and Roberts, but the wave speeds are lower due to ion–neutral collisions. The strong collisions tie the ion–neutral species together and reduce the damping.     

Contaminant concentrations in sport fish from San Francisco Bay, 1997

In 1997, seven sport fish species were sampled from seven popular fishing areas in San Francisco Bay. Mercury exceeded a human health screening value in 44 of 84 (52%) samples. All collected samples of leopard shark and striped bass exceeded the mercury screening value of 0.23 microg/g wet weight. PCBs exceeded the screening value in 51 of 72 (71%) samples. DDT, chlordane, and dieldrin, had lower numbers of samples above screening values: 16 of 72 (22%) for DDT, 11 of 72 (15%) for chlordanes, and 27 of 72 (37%) for dieldrin. Concentrations of PCBs and other trace organics were highest in white croaker and shiner surfperch, the two species with the highest fat content in their muscle tissue. Fish from one location, Oakland Harbor, had significantly elevated wet weight concentrations of mercury, PCBs, DDTs, and chlordanes compared to other locations. Removal of skin from white croaker fillets reduced lipid concentrations by 27-49% and concentrations of trace organics by 33-40%.     

Cosmic ray composition estimation below the knee of the spectrum from the time structure of erenkov light in EAS

Monte Carlo simulations show that the pulse profile of erenkov photons measured near the core of an extensive air shower is sensitive to the secondary muon/electron ratio of the cascade. erenkov pulses can easily be measured with a single large area mirror viewed by a photomultiplier tube subtending a small field of view (1°). Even for such a simple experiment, exposed to EAS from a range of core locations and arrival directions, strong statistical differences are shown to exist between the pulse parameter distributions of primary protons and those of heavier primary particles. A range of primary energies can be investigated by varying the zenith angle of observations. In this paper, results from simulations of primaries in the energy range 20 TeV to 400 TeV are presented, although in principle the technique could be extended to include the knee of the spectrum. At the lower end of this energy range results can be compared to direct measurements of the composition, while measurements at the upper end can augment results from existing ground based experiments.