Activity of Hawaiian Volcanoes during the years 1940–1950

Summit eruptions of Mauna Loa, on the Island of Hawaii, occurred in 1940 and 1949, and flank eruptions in 1942 and 1950. Lava poured out in 1940 and 1942 was about equal in amount, totaling approximately 76 million cubic meters in each eruption. The 1949 eruption was somewhat smaller, liberating approximately 59 million cubic meters. The 1950 eruption was one of the largest on record, producing five large lava flows and several smaller ones, totaling approximately 459 million cubic meters. Three of the 1950 flows entered the sea. In 1942 a lava flow threatened the city of Hilo, and was bombed from the air in an effort to divert it. Calculations indicate that the gas content of the lava extruded during the 1940 eruption probably was in the vicinity of one percent by weight of the total magma. Other calculations indicate the viscosity of fluid Hawaiian lava to be in the range of 10³ to 10⁵ poises. Temperature readings on the 1950 lava ranged from 1090⁰ to 900⁰ C. Kilauea Volcano showed signs of uneasiness in 1944, with an apparent increase of magmatic pressure indicated by outward tilting of the moutain flanks and a series of earthquakes progressing toward the surface. In December 1950 a series of earthquakes accompanied a subsidence of the summit of Kilauea Volcano.     

Complexity of rupture in large strike-slip earthquakes in Turkey

Complexity of rupture propagation has an important bearing on the state of stress along the earthquake fault plane and on the prediction of strong ground motion in the near-field. By studying far-field body waveforms recorded by WWSSN long-period seismograms it has been possible to investigate the degree of complexity of several Turkish earthquakes. The results, which are obtained by matching synthetic P waveforms to observed data indicate that the July 22, 1967 Mudurnu Valley earthquake (M_s = 7.1) is a complex event which can be explained by the superposition of elementary sources with variable amplitudes and source time sequence history. In this regard, it is very similar to the February 4, 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M_s = 7.5). A comparison of these two events indicates that their source-time series ranges from 5 to ca. 20 s and, regardless of the total moment of the earthquake, the moment of the individual events is bounded at around 5 × 10²⁶ dyn cm. The November 24, 1976 E. Turkey earthquake (M_s = 7.3), on the other hand, has a complexity which cannot be explained by such a simple model; in this respect, it may be more similar to the Tangshan, China, earthquake and as such, may involve significant thrust, normal or other complications to its faulting mechanism than the strike-slip mechanism of the P-wave first-motion data. The source time history for the 1967 Mudurnu Valley event is used to illustrate its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source-time series of the 1967 event predicts greater amplitudes (2.5 larger) in strong ground motion than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault. Such complexity is clearly important in understanding what strong ground motion to expect in the near-field of these and other continental strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas.     

Banda Sea surface-layer divergence

Sea-surface temperature (SST) within the Banda Sea varies from a low of 26.5 °C in August to a high of 29.5 °C in December and May. Ekman upwelling reaches a maximum in May and June of approximately 2.5 Sv (Sv=10⁶ m³ s^?1) with Ekman downwelling at a maximum in February of approximately 1.0 Sv. The Ekman pumping annual average is 0.75 Sv upwelling. During the upwelling period, from April through December the average Ekman upwelling velocity is 2.36 × 10^?6 m s^?1 (1.27 Sv). ENSO modulation is generally within 0.5 Sv of the mean Ekman curve, with weaker (stronger) July to October upwelling during El Niño (La Niña). Combined TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1993–1999 altimeter data reveal a 33 cm maximum range of sea level. Steric effects are minor, with well over 80% of the sea level change due to mass divergence (some bias due to unresolved tidal aliasing may still be present). The annual and interannual sea level behavior follows the monsoonal and ENSO phenomena, respectively. Lower (higher) sea level occurs in the southeast (northwest) monsoon and during El Niño (La Niña) events. The surface-layer volume anomaly and the surface-layer divergence, assuming a two-layer ocean, are estimated. Maximum divergence is attained during the transitional monsoon months of October/November: 1.7 Sv gain (convergence), with matching loss (divergence) in the April/May. During the El Niño growth period of 1997 the surface layer is divergent, but in 1998 when the El Niño was on the wane, the average rate of change is convergent. Surface-layer divergence attains values as high as 4 Sv. Banda Sea surface-water divergence correlates reasonably well with the 3-month lagged export of surface (upper 100?m) water into the Indian Ocean as estimated by a shallow pressure gauge array. It is concluded that the Banda Sea surface-layer divergence influences the timing and transport profile of the Indonesian throughflow export into the Indian Ocean, as proposed by Wyrtki in 1958, and that satellite altimetry may serve as an effective means of monitoring this phenomena.     

Seismic anisotropy in granite at the Underground Research Laboratory, Manitoba

The Shear-Wave Experiment at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Underground Research Laboratory was probably the first controlled-source shear-wave survey in a mine environment. Taking place in conjunction with the excavation of the Mine-by test tunnel at 420 m depth, the shear-wave experiment was designed to measure the in situ anisotropy of the rockmass and to use shear waves to observe excavation effects using the greatest variety of raypath directions of any in situ shear-wave survey to date. Inversion of the shear-wave polarizations shows that the anisotropy of the in situ rockmass is consistent with hexagonal symmetry with an approximate fabric orientation of strike 023° and dip 35°. The in situ anisotropy is probably due to microcracks with orientations governed by the in situ stress field and to mineral alignment within the weak gneissic layering. However, there is no unique interpretation as to the cause of the in situ anisotropy as the fabric orientation agrees approximately with both the orientation expected from extensive-dilatancy anisotropy and that of the gneissic layering. Eight raypaths with shear waves propagating wholly or almost wholly through granodiorite, rather than granite, do not show the expected shear-wave splitting and indicate a lower in situ anisotropy, which may be due to the finer grain size and/or the absence of gneissic layering within the granodiorite. These results suggest that shear waves may be used to determine crack and mineral orientations and for remote monitoring of a rockmass. This has potential applications in mining and waste monitoring.     

Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems

Connectivity describes the efficiency of material transfer between geomorphic system components such as hillslopes and rivers or longitudinal segments within a river network. Representations of geomorphic systems as networks should recognize that the compartments, links, and nodes exhibit connectivity at differing scales. The historical underpinnings of connectivity in geomorphology involve management of geomorphic systems and observations linking surface processes to landform dynamics. Current work in geomorphic connectivity emphasizes hydrological, sediment, or landscape connectivity. Signatures of connectivity can be detected using diverse indicators that vary from contemporary processes to stratigraphic records or a spatial metric such as sediment yield that encompasses geomorphic processes operating over diverse time and space scales. One approach to measuring connectivity is to determine the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the phenomenon of interest and to make measurements at a sufficiently large multiple of the fundamental scales to capture reliably a representative sample. Another approach seeks to characterize how connectivity varies with scale, by applying the same metric over a wide range of scales or using statistical measures that characterize the frequency distributions of connectivity across scales. Identifying and measuring connectivity is useful in basic and applied geomorphic research and we explore the implications of connectivity for river management. Common themes and ideas that merit further research include; increased understanding of the importance of capturing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity patterns; the potential to use graph and network theory metrics in analyzing connectivity; the need to understand which metrics best represent the physical system and its connectivity pathways, and to apply these metrics to the validation of numerical models; and the need to recognize the importance of low levels of connectivity in some situations. We emphasize the value in evaluating boundaries between components of geomorphic systems as transition zones and examining the fluxes across them to understand landscape functioning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A qualitative risk assessment for the impacts of climate change on nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland

Climate change is a significant concern for nature conservation in the 21?st century. One of the goals of the 2014 Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme is to identify the consequences of climate change for protected areas and to put in place adaptation or mitigation measures. As a contribution to the process, this paper develops a methodology to identify the relative level of risk to nationally and internationally important geological and geomorphological sites in Scotland from the impacts of climate change. The methodology is based on existing understanding of the likely responses of different types of geosite to specific aspects of climate change, such as changes in rainfall, rising sea levels or increased storminess, and is applied to assess the likelihood of damaging impacts on groups of similar geoheritage features in sites with similar characteristics. The results indicate that 80 (8.8%) of the ～900 nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland are at ‘high’ risk from climate change. These include active soft-sediment coastal and fluvial features, finite Quaternary sediment exposures and landforms in coastal and river locations, active periglacial features, sites with palaeoenvironmental records, finite or restricted rock exposures and fossils. Using this risk-based assessment, development of indicative geoheritage climate-change actions have been prioritised for these sites. Depending on the characteristics of the sites, management options may range from ‘do nothing’ to rescue excavations and posterity recording. Monitoring is an essential part of the management process to trigger evidence-based interventions.     

Uncertainties in climate stabilization

The atmospheric composition, temperature and sea level implications out to 2300 of new reference and cost-optimized stabilization emissions scenarios produced using three different Integrated Assessment (IA) models are described and assessed. Stabilization is defined in terms of radiative forcing targets for the sum of gases potentially controlled under the Kyoto Protocol. For the most stringent stabilization case (“Level 1” with CO₂ concentration stabilizing at about 450 ppm), peak CO₂ emissions occur close to today, implying (in the absence of a substantial CO₂ concentration overshoot) a need for immediate CO₂ emissions abatement if we wish to stabilize at this level. In the extended reference case, CO₂ stabilizes at about 1,000 ppm in 2200—but even to achieve this target requires large and rapid CO₂ emissions reductions over the twenty-second century. Future temperature changes for the Level 1 stabilization case differ noticeably between the IA models even when a common set of climate model parameters is used (largely a result of different assumptions for non-Kyoto gases). For the Level 1 stabilization case, there is a probability of approximately 50% that warming from pre-industrial times will be less than (or more than) 2°C. For one of the IA models, warming in the Level 1 case is actually greater out to 2040 than in the reference case due to the effect of decreasing SO₂ emissions that occur as a side effect of the policy-driven reduction in CO₂ emissions. This effect is less noticeable for the other stabilization cases, but still leads to policies having virtually no effect on global-mean temperatures out to around 2060. Sea level rise uncertainties are very large. For example, for the Level 1 stabilization case, increases range from 8 to 120 cm for changes over 2000 to 2300.     

A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representations

This study assesses the sensitivity of the fully coupled NCAR-DOE PCM to three different representations of present-day land cover, based on IPCC SRES land cover information. We conclude that there is significant model sensitivity to current land cover characterization, with an observed average global temperature range of 0.21 K between the simulations. Much larger contrasts (up to 5 K) are found on the regional scale; however, these changes are largely offsetting on the global scale. These results show that significant biases can be introduced when outside data sources are used to conduct anthropogenic land cover change experiments in GCMs that have been calibrated to their own representation of present-day land cover. We conclude that hybrid systems that combine the natural vegetation from the native GCM datasets combined with human land cover information from other sources are best for simulating such impacts. We also performed a prehuman simulation, which had a 0.39 K ~higher average global temperature and, perhaps of greater importance, temperature changes regionally of about 2 K. In this study, the larger regional changes coincide with large-scale agricultural areas. The initial cooling from energy balance changes appear to create feedbacks that intensify mid-latitude circulation features and weaken the summer monsoon circulation over Asia, leading to further cooling. From these results, we conclude that land cover change plays a significant role in anthropogenically forced climate change. Because these changes coincide with regions of the highest human population this climate impact could have a disproportionate impact on human systems. Therefore, it is important that land cover change be included in past and future climate change simulations.     

Warm-Season Annual to Decadal Temperature Variability for Hokkaido, Japan, Inferred from Maximum Latewood Density and Ring Width Data

We present a warm season (April–September) temperature reconstructionfor Asahikawa, north central Hokkaido, Japan for AD 1557–1990. The reconstruction, which accounts for 34% of the temperature variancefrom 1925–1990, is based on maximum latewood density data from Saghalinspruce (Picea glehnii) growing at timberline (1340–1390 m) at MountAsahidake, Hokkaido. We only present a high frequency (prewhitened or white noise) version of the reconstruction because there is an unexplained offset in the mean between the actual and estimated temperature data for an earlier period of overlap from 1891–1924. The coldest summer in the reconstruction is 1718, forwhich the estimated value is 12.89 ° C, nearly four standard deviations (SD) below the mean. A colder-than-average year is reconstructed for 1641 (13.30° C, nearly 3 SD below mean), following the eruption of Komagatake, Hokkaido which began in July, 1640. The Asahikawa density chronology, shows decadal modes of variation with statistically significant spectral peaks prior to around 1850. A tree-ring width chronology for this same site (AD 1532–1990) is in phase with a tree-ring width record from centralKamchatka prior to around 1850, but out of phase since that time. This pattern suggests, as has been hypothesized for temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from the eastern Pacific sector (Alaska and Patagonia), that a decadal mode of climate variation was more dominant in the Pacific sector prior to about 1850, after which a higher frequency (ENSO-type) mode may have become more pronounced, at least until recent decades. Additional data from the northwestern Pacific is needed to compare to these findings.