Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.     

Anthropogenic effects on sediment quality offshore southwestern Taiwan: Assessing the sediment core geochemical record

Slag material was dumped in two sites off southwestern Taiwan by the China Steel Corporation during 1984–1995. By geochemically analyzing four sediment cores, we investigated the impact of slag on the sediment chemistry. Elemental profiles from the dumping sites show a strong depletion in detrital elements and enrichment in alkaline and redox-sensitive elements, especially for the top ～20 cm of sediments. The relative enrichment factor (EF_rel) exhibits wider range for Ca (0.73–13.33), Fe (0.88–3.03), Mg (0.94–9.58) and Mn (1.22–33.30) due to contamination of sediments by slag. Sediment weathering indicators also show a distinct change with lower values in sediments influenced by dumping due to Ca and Sr addition. Higher EF_rel for As, Cd and Pb in the top sections of the cores indicate an additional modern/industrial input of these elements since ～1950. Our study suggests that slag dumping may have a localized effect on biogeochemical processes by inducing the diagenetic remobilization of certain elements.     

3D depth migration by rotated McClellan filters1

The application of McClellan transformations considerably reduces the computational cost of 3D wavefield depth extrapolation by explicit convolutional methods. The accuracy of migration methods based on McClellan transformation depends on how well the transformation filter (cos !;κ!;) is approximated; errors in this approximation cause anisotropy in the extrapolation operator and frequency dispersion in the migrated results. The anisotropy can be greatly reduced by rotating the approximate filter by 45° and averaging the rotated filter with the original filter. The application of the rotated filter yields a migration method that correctly images very steep dips, with little or no additional computational cost. McClellan migration with the improved circular response enhances the imaging of synthetic and real data.     

HE 1127–1304: the largest radio quasar

By considering the propagation of low-amplitude magnetohydrodynamic waves in partially ionized plasmas, it is shown that the ion-neutral drift (ambipolar diffusion) induced by the waves can have specific effects on the molecular chemistry of cold material. The chemistry occurring in gas swept by Alfvén waves is described and it is shown that this leads to spatial variations in the deuterium fractionation ratios of, for example, HCO⁺ and N₂H⁺, on spatial scales of a few hundredths of a parsec, depending upon the fractional ionization of the ambient medium. The possibility of detecting interstellar Alfvén waves by molecular spectroscopy and their effect of producing small-scale chemical abundance gradients in molecular clouds are briefly discussed.     

Plant studies in the first Himalayan Biosphere Reserve: a review

Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve(NDBR) was declared as the first Himalayan Biosphere Reserve owing to its unique biological and cultural wealth. Its core zones, Nanda Devi National Park and Valley of Flowers National Park, are a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site. In spite of lying at a high altitude, interplay of factors such as unique geographical location, climate, topography and wide altitudinal variations have endowed NDBR with a rich and diverse flora. Proportionately high percentage of endemic and near endemic plants makes NDBR a very important protected area from conservation point of view. However, its floristic wealth is facing unprecedented threats in the form of climate change and growing anthropogenic pressure. Hence, a need was felt to assess the directionality, quality and sufficiency of past and ongoing research for the conservation of floral and ethnobotanical wealth of NDBR in the absence of any such previous attempt. Based on an extensive review of more than 150 plant studies on NDBR, this communication provides a detailed account of the current state of knowledge and information gaps on flora, vegetation ecology, rare, endangered, threatened(RET) and endemic plants and ethnobotany. Priority research areas and management measures are discussed for the conservation of its unique floral wealth. Incomplete floral inventorization, lack of biodiversity monitoring, meagre studies on lower plant groups, population status of medicinal plants, habitat assessment of threatened taxa and geo-spatial analysis of alpine vegetation were identified as areas of immediate concern.     

Centrifuge modelling of structures with oil dampers under seismic loading

Experimental research into the seismic performance of buildings with passive oil dampers has so far been restricted to large-scale testing of frames erected on laboratory shaking tables that ignore the foundation soil below. This simplification of the problem falls short of replicating dynamic soil-structure interaction that would occur in the field. This paper presents the first experimental attempt at utilising high gravity dynamic centrifuge testing to replicate the response of a damped building at a reduced model scale. The paper compares the dynamic response of two similar two-degree-of-freedom model sway frames, one control (bare) frame and one frame equipped with miniature oil dampers, both structures founded on shallow raft foundations in dry dense sand. The miniature oil dampers successfully mitigate floor accelerations, drifts, and storey shear forces in the damped frame with minor modification to the frame stiffness. For strong, near resonance motions, global rocking of the undamped frame associated with physical uplifting of the foundation from the soil surface and subsequent yielding of sand beneath has led to floor acceleration levels, which are comparable to those obtained in the damped building fitted with miniature oil dampers. Assessment of the instrumentation installed on the miniature oil dampers reveals a viscoelastic damper behaviour with a dependency on stroke magnitude and on velocity.     

Land degradation mapping in the upper catchment of river Tons

A study on land degradation in the upper catchment of river Tons, a tributary of Yamuna river, in Uttarkashi district of the Uttarakhand state, was carried out using on-screen visual interpretation of IRS LISS-III + PAN merged data. The study area, which is largely mountainous, includes Govind Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park. Vegetation cover, slope and erosion status were used as criteria for the delineation of four major land degradation categories viz., undegraded, moderately degraded, degraded and severely degraded. More than 50 per cent of the study area is reported to be covered with snow and grassland. The moderate to severely degraded area worked out to be 42.4 per cent of the total area. The 32.8 per cent of area was found to be moderately degraded, followed by degraded (6.63%) and severely degraded (2.88%) areas. The depletion of vegetation cover on mountainous terrain and subsequent cultivation without proper protection measures is the reason for severe soil erosion and land degradation. In view of the existing land degradation situation, the catchment requires immediate treatment on priority for the sustenance of agriculture and wild life. It is expected that these measures will reduce the silt load in the river Tons and eventually, in river Yamuna.     

Using InfoVal method and GIS techniques for the spatial modelling of landslide susceptibility in the upper catchment of river Meenachil in Kerala

A GIS-based statistical methodology for landslide susceptibility zonation is described and its application to a study area in the Western Ghats of Kerala (India) is presented. The study area was approximately 218.44 km² and 129 landslides were identified in this area. The environmental attributes used for the landslide susceptibility analysis include geomorphology, slope, aspect, slope length, plan curvature, profile curvature, elevation, drainage density, distance from drainages, lineament density, distance from lineaments and land use. The quantitative relationship between landslides and factors affecting landslides are established by the data driven-Information Value (InfoVal) — method. By applying and integrating the InfoVal weights using ArcGIS software, a continuous scale of numerical indices (susceptibility index) is obtained with which the study area is divided into five classes of landslide susceptibility. In order to validate the results of the susceptibility analysis, a success rate curve was prepared. The map obtained shows that a great majority of the landslides (74.42%) identified in the field were located in susceptible and highly susceptible zones (27.29%). The area ratio calculated by the area under curve (AUC) method shows a prediction accuracy of 80.45%. The area having a high scale of susceptibility lies on side slope plateaus and denudational hills with high slopes where drainage density is relatively low and terrain modification is relatively intense.