Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis

Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation.     

饱和粉细砂层锚索预应力变化规律监测分析

锚索的预应力损失在工程建设中不可忽视,工程的场地环境条件成为影响锚索预应力损失的主因。饱和粉细砂层较其他地质条件更为复杂敏感,更易引起锚索预应力值的损失。通过对廊坊市某深基坑工程锚索预应力值的实时监测,结合工程环境,分析饱和粉细砂层中造成锚索预应力值变化的原因。结果表明,施工过程、张拉过程以及环境因素都影响锚索预应力的变化,其中开挖过程的影响最明显,预应力值的变化率最大值达79.1%;瞬时卸载造成预应力值22.8%⁵9.2%的损失。对饱和粉细砂层中锚索预应力变化规律的研究分析结论可为类似地质环境的工程建设提供经验。     

Mobilization and redistribution of elements in soils developed from extreme weathering basalt on Hainan Island

Major, trace and organic elements of a South China were reported to investigate elements laterite profile developed on Neogene basalt on Hainan Island, mobilization and redistribution in tropical regions. The results indicate that strong acid environment and organic matter （OM） can remarkably improve the transfer of insoluble elements. Among all the elements, Th is the least mobile. As for the general conservative elements during incipient chemical weathering, such as Ti, Zr, Hf and Nb, the removals are up to 30%-40% in the upper profile. And for Fe, A1, Cu and Ni, that tend to be combined with secondary minerals and to be retained in temperate zone, they are re- moved from the upper profile, transferred downwards, and then precipitated in the lower profile. In addition, atmos- pheric inputs, including sea salt aerosols and dust, have a profound effect on the budgets of elements that are susceptible to leaching losses （e.g. K, Na and Sr）. Excluding the possibilities of groundwater and erosion, the remarkable increase of K, Na and Sr concentrations in the upper profile, together with dramatically upward increasing trends of the percentage changes of Sr/Th, K/Th and Na/Th ratios, show that atmospheric inputs, especially sea salt aerosols, contribute much extraneous seawater derived elements, such as K, Na and Sr to the soils. The overall elemental be- haviors in this profile suggest that organic matter and atmospheric inputs play a very important role in the mobiliza- tion and redistribution of elements during extreme weathering in tropical regions.     

招平断裂带中段断裂成矿有利度分析

招平断裂带是我国著名的金矿成矿带。断裂的空间展布形态特征对寻找断裂构造控矿型金矿床具有重要作用。通过断裂的遥感解译,研究了招平断裂带主断裂的走向、主断裂地表破碎带宽度以及主断裂起伏程度等成矿有利度指标,构建了基于断裂距离场的成矿有利度分析模型,并圈定研究区域成矿远景区11处,为区域地质、物化探等勘查工作提供了指导性意见。     

Research on Paleoecology of Middle Permian-Middle Triassic in the Western Sichuan Basin

The research area is located in the western part of Sichuan basin as a Yangtze ecotope of Cathaysian Tethyan area. It is dominated by benthic fauna, including brachiopods, Fusulinids, corals, bivalves, foraminifers, ammonites, bryozoans,Crinoids and pleopods which are less common with traces of trilobites, stromatoporas, nautilus and sporopollens seen in one or two areas,which are obviously controlled by sedimentary environments and in accordance with sedimentary facies.Through the analysis of fossils and research on burial characteristics from middle Permian middleTriassic, based on the combination of the feature of fossils in time and space, seventeen communities are recognized, the coposition, construction and palaeoenvironment of each community are expounded. Study shows that different ecological type biocoenose are distributed in different locations, which are mainly represented by sessile benthic community in the main research area, composed of Mianzhu, Mianyang, Deyang and Santai and nektonic community in marginal areas in the research area subdivided into two parts: Areas around Guangyuan-Nanjiang-Tongjiang, located at the margins in the northeast of the research area, and areas around Wenchuan-Maoxian-Dayidafeishui situated at the western borders of the research area. According to the combination of communities with sedimentary characteristics,six kinds of biofacies have been recognized and described in the study area and biofacies pattern are established. Category,ecotype, typical community and sedimentary facies of each biofacies are elucidated in this paper. The subdivision and analysis of community are meaningful for the studies of paleoenvironment ,paleogeography and their evolutions,The research of biaofacies is important for the recovery of paleobiogeography and paleoplate tectonic characteristics.     

雅鲁藏布江流域降水时空变化特征

雅鲁藏布江流域是全球气候变化的敏感区,该流域降水变化对青藏高原的水系统、生态系统和山地灾害系统的演变具有重要影响。本文通过流域水文分析,将雅鲁藏布江流域的三大水资源区细分为9个分区。基于雅鲁藏布江流域1979—2018年降水数据,综合分析了雅鲁藏布江流域及9个分区的年、干湿季、月降水量以及日、小时尺度极端降水的时空变化特征,探讨了降水和典型大尺度大气环流因子的相关性。结果表明：① 1979—2018年间,在流域尺度上,各时间尺度降水整体上均呈上升趋势。其中,年降水量上升趋势最大,为2.5 mm·a^-1;年、干湿季降水量以及典型小时尺度极端降水（Rx3hour、Rx12hour）均在95%信度水平下显著上升。在水资源分区尺度上,各分区不同时间尺度降水的变化趋势呈现更明显的非一致性,所有分区除小时尺度极端降水均呈上升趋势外,其余时间尺度降水的趋势变化方向各异。② 雅鲁藏布江流域降水存在明显的空间分异性,且降水空间分异性会随着降水指标时间尺度的缩短而增强。各时间尺度降水整体上均呈现出自东部向西部逐渐减少的趋势,流域东南部（分区Ⅲ-2）始终是高值中心,流域中西部（分区Ⅰ-2、Ⅱ-1）存在区域性高值中心。③ 北半球副热带高压和北半球极涡对雅鲁藏布江流域降水变化具有显著影响。研究结果有助于掌握当地降水的多尺度变化特征,可为雅鲁藏布江流域和青藏高原地区的水循环研究、水资源开发利用和山洪灾害防治等提供科学基础。     

基于MODIS温度的青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度变化研究

基于MODIS温度数据,采用TTOP模型和Stefan公式模拟了青藏高原地区的冻土分布并计算了活动层厚度,并与地面观测结果进行了对比。结果表明：2003—2019年青藏高原多年冻土面积为1.01×10⁶ km²;多年冻土活动层厚度区域平均值为1.79 m, 活动层厚度区域平均的变化率为3.67 cm/10a,且草甸地区的变化率明显大于草原地区,5100~5300 m高程带的活动层厚度变化速率最大。     

长江流域径流量变化过程及其对ENSO和PDO的响应

根据宜昌站、汉口站和大通站的径流量数据,运用M-K检验和小波分析等方法,对1900年以来长江流域径流量的趋势和周期变化进行分析,探究径流量变化对厄尔尼诺?南方涛动（ENSO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的响应。结果表明：1900 年以来长江流域径流量呈显著的减少趋势,并具有2~8 a的年际周期变化和14~17 a的年代际周期变化。流域径流量与ENSO具有相同的2~8 a周期变化,在El Ni?o发生期,径流量较低,在La Ni?a发生期,径流量较高。14~17 a的周期变化与PDO相关,在暖位相期径流量偏少,在冷位相期径流量偏多。PDO影响着ENSO和径流量之间的相关性,在暖位相期,El Ni?o对径流量的影响增强,在冷位相期,La Ni?a对径流量的影响增强。因此,在分析和预测流域径流量长时间尺度上的变化时要综合考虑ENSO和PDO的影响。