A Warning System for Stromboli Volcano Based on Statistical Analysis

In this paper we describe a warning system based on statistical analysis for the purpose of monitoring ground deformation at the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli Volcano, Sicily). After a statistical analysis of ground deformation time-series measured at Stromboli by the monitoring system known as THEODOROS (THEOdolite and Distancemeter Robot Observatory of Stromboli), the paper describes the solution adopted for implementing the warning system. A robust statistical index has been defined in order to evaluate the movements of the area. A fuzzy approach has been proposed to evaluate an AI (Alarm Intensity) index which indicates the level of hazard of the Sciara del Fuoco sliding.     

Volcanic soil formation in Calabria (southern Italy): The Cecita Lake geosol in the late Quaternary geomorphological evolution of the Sila uplands

This paper focuses on the main morphological, physical, chemical and mineralogical features of an andic-like soil, widely outcropping in the Sila upland plateau of Calabria (southern Italy), and its potential role in tephrostratigraphy. A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach allowed identification of this soil as a “masked” distal archive of volcanic products, developed on granite rocks and sediments with a coeval pyroclastic input during pedogenesis. The study demonstrates that the contribution of volcanic parent materials can be successfully hypothesized and assessed even in the absence, limited extent or poor preservation of primary eruptive products. The soil has an Andisol-like appearance, despite laboratory data that do not match the entire suite of diagnostic criteria for the Andisol taxonomic order. Geomorphological, stratigraphic and pedologic results, coupled with tephrostratigraphic and radiometric data, concur to suggest a Late Pleistocene(?) to Holocene age of the Andisol-like soil. In particular, the rhyolitic chemical composition of small-sized glass fragments (identified by SEM–EDS analyses) indicates soil genesis contributed by volcanic ash, probably sourced from Aeolian Arc explosive activity spanning the last 30 ka. Accordingly, the evidence of limited relict clay illuviation and the specific type of pedogenesis allowing the development of andic properties (in turn related to the neoformation of clay minerals from the weathering of volcanic glass) are consistent with a climatic shift from a seasonally-contrasted to a constantly humid pedoenvironment. This change can be ascribed to the Lateglacial(?) or Early–Middle Holocene to Late Holocene transition. Calibrated AMS ¹⁴C dates performed on charcoal fragments sampled from three representative soil profiles, provide Late Holocene ages (3136 ± 19, 343 ± 16 and 92 ± 24 yr BP), in accord with archaeological finds. On the basis of the consistent stratigraphic position, lateral continuity and wide extent, the soil can be considered a good pedostratigraphic marker in the Sila highlands and is informally defined as the “Cecita Lake geosol”. It supplies valuable time constraints for the underlying (occasionally overlying) deposits and/or soils. Moreover, it allows regional-scale morphostratigraphic correlations and detailed reconstruction of Late Pleistocene–Holocene geomorphic events in Calabria, a very suitable region for distal tephra deposition in the central Mediterranean peri-volcanic area. The effects of high-energy volcanic eruptions are interfingered with or superimposed by other geomorphic processes and climatic or anthropogenic signals.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

The role of constraints on joint hypocentre determination in seismotectonic studies

In this paper we show how the performance of the joint hypocentre determination (JHD) method can be improved, leading to reduced instability in cases close to singularity. The method has been extended by imposing a number of constraints introduced by other authors, and adding a new one. We tested the stability of the method and the relative advantages of the various constraints by simulating a geometrical space distribution of hypocentres recorded by a regional seismic network. We then applied this method to deep earthquakes that occurred in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea subduction zone and to the seismicity of the Northern Apennines, which is moderately deeper than the typical shallow seismicity of the Apennines. The results obtained from the analysis of synthetic data and actual earthquakes confirm that the JHD method produces less scatter in the hypocentral determinations with respect to the standard locations. The main conclusion of our study is that we can significantly reduce the systematic mislocations that result from applying JHD to very clustered seismicity if we introduce the appropriate set of constraints.     

人为因素导致的地面沉降

天然气、石油、地下水、地热热水和卤水等流体运移出地下储存地层时,地层耗尽了流体而产生压缩变形,这些变形传递到地表表面就形成了人为的地面沉降。在本文中:(1)列举了世界上主要的地面沉降区域;(2)论述了引发地面沉降的力学机制,这些可以量测的地面沉降发生在地下含水层体系、天然气气田和石油油田之上;(3)描述了目前可以用于地面沉降测量和岩石变形原位测试的技术手段;(4)简要介绍了几个地面沉降预测的数值模型;(5)说明了用于控制地面沉降发展和减轻相关环境影响的几种防治措施。     

Topographic effects observed at Amatrice hill during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

The estimate of seismic site effects by experimental approaches is based on different assumptions aimed at simplifying the complex actual site conditions and related uncertainties.However,the reliability of the results can increase if the experimental data is focused on quite strong seismic sequences and the on-site acquisition of a large number of signals is deemed strategic for the assessment of the expected phenomena.Based on these considerations,the ground motion at the Red Zone sector of Amatrice hill,violently struck by the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence,was analyzed via an observational approach.A large set of weak motions(moment magnitude Mw 2.5-3.9)was analyzed in this study by means of standard(SSR)and horizontal to vertical(HVSR)spectral ratio techniques.The results from the experimental analysis of the site effects by using weak motion and noise signals show a significant amplification at the top of Amatrice hill with a remarkable polarization of the motion and changes in spectral shapes according to the topographic setting of the relief.     

The amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of human trampling on sandy beaches

The present paper assesses the use of the supralittoral amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of the effects of human trampling on the supralittoral sandy band. Samplings in delimited areas were carried out at sites subjected to different human impact. The results showed a strong negative correlation between the number of swimmers and the sandhopper population density, while there was no clear relationship between sandhopper abundance and the other factors considered: granulometry, compactness and organic carbon content of the sand, and trace metal contents in the sand and sandhoppers. A field test of trampling conducted in a confined space showed its direct negative effect on sandhopper survival. However, trace metal analysis confirmed the ability of T. saltator to bioaccumulate some elements (Hg, Zn, Cu, Cd). Our study demonstrates that T. saltator is a good bioindicator of human impact in the supralittoral zone of sandy shores.