Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

The role of constraints on joint hypocentre determination in seismotectonic studies

In this paper we show how the performance of the joint hypocentre determination (JHD) method can be improved, leading to reduced instability in cases close to singularity. The method has been extended by imposing a number of constraints introduced by other authors, and adding a new one. We tested the stability of the method and the relative advantages of the various constraints by simulating a geometrical space distribution of hypocentres recorded by a regional seismic network. We then applied this method to deep earthquakes that occurred in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea subduction zone and to the seismicity of the Northern Apennines, which is moderately deeper than the typical shallow seismicity of the Apennines. The results obtained from the analysis of synthetic data and actual earthquakes confirm that the JHD method produces less scatter in the hypocentral determinations with respect to the standard locations. The main conclusion of our study is that we can significantly reduce the systematic mislocations that result from applying JHD to very clustered seismicity if we introduce the appropriate set of constraints.     

The cassiterite-polymetallic sulfide deposits of Dachang (Guangxi,People's Republic of China)

The Dachang mining district is the second largest producer of Sn in China and an important source of other metals. The known mineralizations can be divided into four groups: (1) cassiterite + Cu-Fe-Pb-Zn sulfides and sulfosalts, (2) Zn-Cu skarn, (3) Sb-W veins and (4) residual and placer concentrations of Sn and Fe oxides. Most orebodies are hosted by Upper Devonian calcareous, marly and quartzitic formations in spatial association with Cretaceous Yanshanian magmatites. A characteristic feature is the occurrence of stratiform, lens-shaped orebodies which appear to represent the root zone of overlying stockwork mineralizations. The metallogeny of the district may be interpreted in terms of an Upper Devonian Sn and polymetallic concentration with subsequent remobilization and, possibly, the introduction of additional elements during the late stages of the Yanshanian magmatism.     

Mathematical identification of diffuse and localized instabilities in fluid‐saturated sands

The mathematical properties of diffuse and localized failure modes in fluid‐saturated sands are investigated. The granular medium is modeled as an elastoplastic solid, and a recently proposed set of scalar indices, here referred to as moduli of instability, is used to identify the onset of potential bifurcations of the incremental response. First, the analytical properties of these moduli are discussed, stressing their dependence on the kinematic constraints associated with the imposed deformation modes. Then, by using an elastoplastic model for sands, drained and undrained loading paths are simulated under axisymmetric, plane‐strain and simple shear conditions. For each deformation mode, the instability moduli are computed and monitored throughout the simulations, with the purpose of elucidating the consequences of changes in control conditions. In addition, it is illustrated that suitable linear transformations allow the same strategy to be used to perform drained or undrained shear band analyses and predict the interval of possible band inclinations. The final comparison against literature experiments on loose Hostun sand shows that the instability moduli are indicators of the loss of resistance against specific modes of deformation. As a result, they can be used to identify and explain a number of failure mechanisms that can be commonly observed in experiments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Campanian Ignimbrite (southern Italy) geochemical zoning: insight on the generation of a super-eruption from catastrophic differentiation and fast withdrawal

More than ca 100 km³ of nearly homogeneous crystal-poor phonolite and ca 100 km³ of slightly zoned trachyte were erupted 39 ka during the Campanian Ignimbrite super eruption, the most powerful in the Neapolitan area. Partition coefficient calculations, equilibrium mineral assemblages, glass compositions and texture were used to reconstruct compositional, thermal and pressure gradients in the pre-eruptive reservoir as well as timing and mechanisms of evolution towards magma chamber overpressure and eruption. Our petrologic data indicate that a wide sill-like trachytic magma chamber was active under the Campanian Plain at 2.5 kbar before CI eruption. Thermal exchange between high liquidus (1199°C) trachytic sill and cool country rocks caused intense undercooling, driving a catastrophic and fast (10² years) in situ fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation that produced a water oversaturated phonolitic cap and an overpressure in the chamber that triggered the super eruption. This process culminated in an abrupt reservoir opening and in a fast single-step high decompression. Sanidine phenocrysts crystal size distributions reveal high differentiation rate, thus suggesting that such a sill-like magmatic system is capable of evolving in a very short time and erupting suddenly with only short-term warning.     

New remains of Eremotherium laurillardi (Lund, 1842) (Megatheriidae, Xenarthra) from the coastal region of Ecuador

New remains of Eremotherium were recovered from the Pacific coast of Ecuador’s Manabi province. The Machalilla fossiliferous locality records the northernmost presence of Eremotherium along the Pacific coast of South America. Most of the fossil remains belong to the same individual, mainly its posterior half, but other individuals are represented. Among the better-preserved specimens are skull fragments, most of the hind limb bones and a number of trunk and caudal centra. These remains were compared with samples collected during the 20th century along the southern coastal regions of Ecuador and northern Peru. Many characters of the long bones and tarsals testify to a possibly different lineage despite the closeness of other Eremotherium populations. Some metric and morphological aspects suggest a different space-temporal southern Caribbean provenance. Other Eremotherium specimens, coming from other Ecuadorian localities, were studied and compared with classic Eremotherium samples. Interesting morpho-functional aspects are pointed out with regard to the tail and its importance in the bipedal stance.     

The role of spatial effects in the empirical analysis of regional concentration

 Economists have recently devoted an increasing attention to the issue of spatial concentration of economic activities. However, surprisingly enough, most of the empirical work is still based on the computation of very basic statistical measures in which the geographical characteristics of data play no role. By making use of a series of empirical examples we show that spatial concentration consists of two different features that are rarely kept as separate in the statistical analysis: an a-spatial concept of variability which is invariant to permutations, and the concept of polarization that refers to the geographical position of observations. Received: 8 August 2000 / Accepted: 20 June 2001     

The structure of the Campanian Plain and the activity of the Neapolitan volcanoes (Italy)

The central Campanian Plain is dominated by the structural depression of Acerra whose origin is tectonic, but may have been enlarged and further depressed after the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (42-25 ka). The deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite are possibly the results of multiple eruptions with huge pyroclastic deposits that covered all the Campanian Plain.The more recent activity of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Procida occurred on the borders of Acerra depression and resulted from a reactivation of regional faults after the Campanian Ignimbrite cycle. The activity of Vesuvius produced the building of a stratovolcano mostly by effusive and plinian explosive eruptions. The Campi Flegrei area, on the contrary, was dominated by the eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff at 12 ka that produced a caldera collapse of the Gulf of Pozzuoli. The caldera formation controlled the emplacement of the recent activity of Campi Flegrei and the new volcanoes were formed only within the caldera or along its rim.