Caveats on tomographic images

Geological and geodynamic models of the mantle often rely on joint interpretations of published seismic tomography images and petrological/geochemical data. This approach tends to neglect the fundamental limitations of, and uncertainties in, seismic tomography results. These limitations and uncertainties involve theory, correcting for the crust, the lack of rays throughout much of the mantle, the difficulty in obtaining the true strength of anomalies, choice of what background model to subtract to reveal anomalies, and what cross‐sections to select for publication. The aim of this review is to provide a relatively non‐technical summary of the most important of these problems, collected together in a single paper, and presented in a form accessible to non‐seismologists. Appreciation of these issues is essential if final geodynamic models are to be robust, and required by the scientific observations.     

Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Abstract

Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

Citation Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. E. & Beven, K. J. (2010) Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 364–376.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Amplification of strong ground motion in the city of Zagreb, Croatia, estimated by computation of synthetic seismograms

A hybrid technique consisting of modal summation and subsequent finite differences modelling is applied for the computation of synthetic accelerograms along a profile crossing the city of Zagreb, the capital of Croatia. Assuming the source geometry is known, the amplification properties of the underlying soil may be determined by comparison of synthetics and their response spectra computed for a bedrock model with the ones obtained under the assumption of a realistic laterally varying local model. The peak ground acceleration is larger by a factor of up to 3.5 than the value obtained for the bedrock model. The amplification of the response spectra is most prominent for frequencies below 2 Hz, and increases sharply to the SW from the mapped fault running through the centre of the city.     

An averaged model for the Adriatic subplate

Two new techniques in surface wave analysis, the modified moving window method and the method of stacking and cleaning, are used to determine average group and phase velocities over the area covering the Adriatic Sea and the Northern and Central Apennines, while avoiding the anomalous region under the Po plain.The data indicate that the lateral homogeneity of the region is sufficiently good to allow for an averaged model of the lithosphere. Backus-Gilbert inversion of the data leads to an averaged model with a thick sedimentary cover (10–11 km), a normal continental Moho depth of about 35 km, and a velocity rise with depth below the crust.The extremely low group velocity data that are encountered both in the Apennine region and in the Adriatic Sea suggest a similarity between the crustal structure of this area and the Eastern Mediterranean....the olive-sandalled Apennine In the South dimly islanded. (Shelley)