Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

Sequence stratigraphy based on high-resolution seismic profiles in the late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits of the Venice area

The sequence-stratigraphic investigation by Very High-Resolution (VHR) seismic profiles allowed recognition of the detailed architecture of the late Pleistocene and Holocene succession of the Venice area. In this way deposits previously known by the analyses of scattered cores, mainly taken along the lagoon margin and the littoral strips, have been correlated at regional scale including the near offshore sector and the result has pointed out the lateral variability of the stratal architecture. Late Pleistocene deposits consist of an aggrading floodplain and fluvial channel fills accumulated during decreasing eustatic sea level, and they are coeval with offlapping forced regressive marine wedges in the Central Adriatic basin. The Holocene sequence is composed of three main seismic units separated by major stratal surfaces. Unit 1 (up to 9 m thick) is formed by channelized deposits separated by areas showing sub-horizontal and hummocky reflectors, and is bounded at the base by a surface that records prolonged conditions of subaerial exposure and at the top by a flatter surface resulting from erosion by marine processes. Deposits of Unit 1 are interpreted as estuarine and distributary channel fills, and back-barrier strata. Unit 2 is well distinguishable from Unit 1 only in the offshore area and at the barrier island bounding the Venice Lagoon, and is composed of a prograding marine wedge (up to 10 m thick) that interacts laterally with ebb tidal deltas. Unit 3 consists of a tidal channel complex and inlet deposits, which testify the evolution of the lagoon area. Tidal channels are entrenched in the lagoon mud flat (coeval with Units 1–2) and cut the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary in several places.Following current sequence-stratigraphic concepts, the Holocene sequence is composed of a paralic transgressive systems tract (TST) (Unit 1) overlying a sequence boundary (the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary) and overlain by a marine highstand systems tract (HST) (Unit 2) in seaward locations and by highstand lagoonal deposits landwards. TST and HST are separated by a downlap surface that is amalgamated with a wave ravinement surface in several places. Unit 3 is coeval with the upper part of Unit 2, and its development has been favoured by human interventions, which led to a transgression limited to the lagoon area.Local factors during the deposition, i.e. subsidence, sediment supply, physiography, and current/wave regimes, led to a significant lateral variability in the architecture of the Holocene sequence, as evidenced by the extreme thickness variation of the TST along both depositional strike and dip. The HST, instead, shows less pronounced strike variations in the stratal architecture. Also, present data clearly evidence that the human impact has a great relevance in influencing the late Holocene sedimentation.     

An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.     

A review of low‐cost space‐borne data for flood modelling: topography,flood extent and water level

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Dielectric constant estimation of the uppermost Basal Unit layer in the martian Boreales Scopuli region

An electromagnetic inversion model has been applied to echoes from the subsurface sounding Shallow Radar (SHARAD) to retrieve the dielectric properties of the uppermost Basal Unit (BU) beneath the North Polar Layered Deposits of Mars. SHARAD data have been carefully selected to satisfy the assumption of the inversion model which requires a stratigraphy consisting of mostly plane parallel layers. The resulting values of the dielectric constant have been interpreted in terms of a variable percentage of dust in an ice–dust mixture through the use of a mixing model for dielectric properties. The resulting dust content exceeds 65%, reaching perhaps 95%, depending on the permittivity values assumed for the dust. Such a concentration is higher than that obtained by Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003). This discrepancy could be justified considering that our observations refer to the uppermost BU layer, whereas Selvans et al. (Selvans, M.M., Plaut, J.J., Aharonson, O. [2010]. J. Geophys. Res, 115, E09003) probed the BU full thickness. Moreover, if the BU is considered spatially inhomogeneous, with very different dust content and thickness (Tanaka, K.L., Skinner, J.A., Fortezzo, C.M., Herkenhoff, K.E., Rodriguez, J.A.P., Bourke, M.C., Kolb, E.J., Okubo, C.H. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 318–358), the discrepancy could be furtherly reconciled.     

On the displacement of marked pebbles on two coarse-clastic beaches during short fair-weather periods (Marina di Pisa and Portonovo, Italy)

The aim of the investigation was to define the mechanisms of sediment transport in the swash zone of microtidal coarse-clastic beaches in the very short term by evaluating the displacement rates of marked pebbles under low-energy wave conditions. Tests were performed at two sites (Marina di Pisa, Ligurian Sea, and Portonovo, central Adriatic Sea) to check the consistency of the data over a range of different grain sizes. Two recovery campaigns were carried out at both sites, one 6 h and the other 24 h after the injection. During the experiments wave action was at a minimum (wave heights never exceeded 0.3 m). The results show that 20% of pebbles ranging in diameter from 30–90 mm moved significantly (more than 0.5 m) already 6 h after the injection, with some tracers being lost (3%). After 24 h, 40% of the pebbles were significantly displaced and 10% were lost. The preferential downslope movement of tracers, which suggests that coarse sediment movement under low-energy conditions is mainly controlled by gravity processes enhanced by steep beachface slopes, represents the novelty of the results reported here. It would appear that swash processes on low-energy beaches cause a significant rate of pebble displacement through the destabilization induced by wave uprush and backwash. Despite the microtidal range, the position of the mean water level plays a major role in changing the beach level at which swash processes can actually trigger pebble movement. The results of this study show that considerable, and mostly seaward-directed, coarse sediment transport takes place even during short fair-weather periods.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs