Seismic fragility curves of as-built single-span masonry arch bridges

Masonry arch bridges are crucial elements in the railway transportation network throughout Europe. Although significant advances in seismic risk assessment of various bridge types have been made by developing fragility curves of generalized classes of structures, there are no comparable tools for masonry arch structures. In this context, this paper presents the construction of seismic fragility curves of single-span masonry bridges according to the limit analysis method. An iterative procedure is implemented to define the capacity curve of the equivalent single degree of freedom system through non-linear kinematic analysis. The process involves determination of the collapse mechanism, calculation of the limit load multiplier, and definition of the thrust line. The intrinsic variability of the seismic action is incorporated with the use of different sets of elastic spectra compatible with EC 8 Type-1 spectrum for various types of soil, with peak ground acceleration varying over the range 0.05–1.5 g. The fragility curves of the generalized classes of single-span masonry bridges are finally obtained from the effective ranges of the main geometric and material parameters affecting arch bridge capacity.     

A Completely 3D Model for the Simulation of Mechanized Tunnel Excavation

For long deep tunnels as currently under construction through the Alps, mechanized excavation using tunnel boring machines (TBMs) contributes significantly to savings in construction time and costs. Questions are, however, posed due to the severe ground conditions which are in cases anticipated or encountered along the main tunnel alignment. A major geological hazard is the squeezing of weak rocks, but also brittle failure can represent a significant problem. For the design of mechanized tunnelling in such conditions, the complex interaction between the rock mass, the tunnel machine, its system components, and the tunnel support need to be analysed in detail and this can be carried out by three-dimensional (3D) models including all these components. However, the state-of-the-art shows that very few fully 3D models for mechanical deep tunnel excavation in rock have been developed so far. A completely three-dimensional simulator of mechanised tunnel excavation is presented in this paper. The TBM of reference is a technologically advanced double shield TBM designed to cope with both conditions. Design analyses with reference to spalling hazard along the Brenner and squeezing along the Lyon–Turin Base Tunnel are discussed.     

Soil water dynamics under different forest vegetation cover: Implications for hillslope stability

Though it is well known that vegetation affects the water balance of soils through canopy interception and evapotranspiration, its hydrological contribution to soil hydrology and stability is yet to be fully quantified. To improve understanding of this hydrological process, soil water dynamics have been monitored at three adjacent hillslopes with different vegetation covers (deciduous tree cover, coniferous tree cover, and grass cover), for nine months from December 2014 to September 2015. The monitored soil moisture values were translated into soil matric suction (SMS) values to facilitate the analysis of hillslope stability. Our observations showed significant seasonal variations in SMS for each vegetation cover condition. However, a significant difference between different vegetation covers was only evident during the winter season where the mean SMS under coniferous tree cover (83.6 kPa) was significantly greater than that under grass cover (41 kPa). The hydrological reinforcing contribution due to matric suction was highest for the hillslope with coniferous tree cover, while the hillslope with deciduous tree cover was second and the hillslope with grass cover was third. The greatest contributions for all cover types were during the summer season. During the winter season, the wettest period of the monitoring study, the additional hydrological reinforcing contributions provided by the deciduous tree cover (1.5 to 6.5 kPa) or the grass cover (0.9 to 5.4 kPa) were insufficient to avoid potential slope failure conditions. However, the additional hydrological reinforcing contribution from the coniferous tree cover (5.8 to 10.4 kPa) was sufficient to provide potentially stable hillslope conditions during the winter season. Our study clearly suggests that during the winter season the hydrological effects from both deciduous tree and grass covers are insufficient to promote slope stability, while the hydrological reinforcing effects from the coniferous tree cover are sufficient even during the winter season. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radio-silent isolated neutron stars as a new astronomical reality

Summary. As of today, seven X-ray sources have been tentatively identified as radio-quiet, isolated neutron stars. The family appears to be a rapidly growing one, although not all the objects have been identified with the same degree of certainty. The most convincing example of radio quiet pulsar is certainly Geminga, the neutron star nature of which, proposed in 1983 on the basis of its similarity with the Vela pulsar, has been firmly established with the discovery of its X and pulsation. Four more neutron star candidates, originally found in the Einstein data, have been confirmed by ROSAT, which has added to the list two more entries. All this is not the result of an unbiased search. The seven sources were not selected at random: four are inside supernova remnants, an obvious place to search for isolated neutron stars, while the remaining three were singled out because of some peculiarity. Intense -ray emission in the case of Geminga, very high X-ray counting rate for RXJ185635-3754, or being the brightest unidentified source in the Einstein medium sensitivity survey, MS 0317-6647. In spite of the limited number of objects and of the observational biases, these seven radio quiet neutron star candidates add valuable pieces of information to the observational panorama of known pulsars. Their properties, inferred from the X-ray emission, offer a coherent picture, pointing towards thermally emitting, cooling neutron stars. Received: April 1, 1996     

Cyclic geomagnetic changes in Mid-Cretaceous rhythmites, Italy

Magnetic secular variation is recorded as a quasi-rhythmical process of uncertain origin. Rhythmic changes recorded in the Scisti a Fucoidi in the central Apennines of Italy, pelagic sediments of Mid-Cretaceous (Late Albian) age, show strong correspondence to patterns of orbital variation. In the same strata cyclic magnetic variations are found with peaks in the same range (105, 40, 26,19 kyr). These results appear to support earlier suggestions that secular variations may be related to these astronomical patterns.     

Chronology of the Mediterranean sea-level highstand during the Last Interglacial: a critical review of the U/Th-dated deposits

Relative sea-level (RSL) evolution during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 in the Mediterranean basin is still not fully understood despite a plethora of morphological, stratigraphic and geochronological studies carried out on highstand deposits of this area. In this review we assembled a database of 323 U/Th-dated samples (e.g. corals, molluscs, speleothems) which were used to chronologically constrain RSL evolution within MIS 5. The application of strict geochemical criteria to the U/Th samples indicates that only ~33% of data available for the Mediterranean Sea can be considered ‘reliable’. Most of these data (~65%) refer to the MIS 5e highstand, while only ~17% could be related to the MIS 5a. No attribution to MIS 5c can be unequivocally supported. Nevertheless, the resulting framework does not allow us to define a satisfactory RSL trend during the MIS 5e highstand and subsequent MIS 5 substages. Overall, the proposed selection of reliable/unreliable data would be useful for detecting areas where MIS 5 substage attributions are not supported by confident U/Th chronological data and thus the related reconstructions need to be revised. In this regard, the resulting framework calls for a reappraisal and re-examination of the Mediterranean records with advanced geochronological methodologies.     

Numerical Modelling of the Anisotropic Mechanical Behaviour of Opalinus Clay at the Laboratory-Scale Using FEM/DEM

The Opalinus Clay (OPA) is an argillaceous rock formation selected to host a deep geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste in Switzerland. It has been shown that the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) in this formation is heavily affected by the anisotropic mechanical response of the material related to the presence of bedding planes. In this context, the purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to illustrate the new developments that have been introduced into the combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM) to model layered materials and (ii) to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach in simulating the short-term mechanical response of OPA at the laboratory-scale. A transversely isotropic elastic constitutive law is implemented to account for the anisotropic elastic modulus, while a procedure to incorporate a distribution of preferentially oriented defects is devised to capture the anisotropic strength. Laboratory results of indirect tensile tests and uniaxial compression tests are used to calibrate the numerical model. Emergent strength and deformation properties, together with the simulated damage mechanisms, are shown to be in strong agreement with experimental observations. Subsequently, the calibrated model is validated by investigating the effect of confinement and the influence of the loading angle with respect to the specimen anisotropy. Simulated fracture patterns are discussed in the context of the theory of brittle rock failure and analyzed with reference to the EDZ formation mechanisms observed at the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory.     

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.