Doline probability map using logistic regression and GIS technology in the central Ebro Basin (Spain)

In the surroundings of Zaragoza, karstification processes are especially intense in covered karst areas where fluvial terraces lie directly on Tertiary evaporites. Since the beginning of Quaternary, these processes have lead to the development of collapse and subsidence dolines with a wide range of sizes, which have significant economic impacts. To reduce economic impact and increase safety, a regional analysis of this phenomenon is needed for spatial management. Therefore, a probability map of dolines was developed using logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. This paper covers the selection of input data, manipulation of data using the GIS technology, and the use of logistic regression to generate a doline probability map. The primary variable in the doline development in this area is geomorphology, represented by the location of endorheic areas and different terrace levels. Secondary variables are the presence of irrigation and the water table gradient.     

Suitability analysis for sand and gravel extraction site location in the context of a sustainable development in the surroundings of Zaragoza (Spain)

Zaragoza city is located in the central Ebro Basin, in the Iberian Peninsula. The fluvial terraces formed by the Ebro River present a valuable resource of sand and gravel deposits. However, taking advantage of these available resources implies conflicts with other land use interests like urban and industrial development as well as agricultural use, which has also traditionally occupied the alluvial terraces. These deposits represent a substantial groundwater resource that should be preserved for future generations. The development of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) has greatly assisted efforts for solving land-use conflicts. These systems combine the benefits of geographic information systems (GIS) and decision support methodologies and are therefore suitable to manage sustainable development of urban areas. In this contribution, an extraction suitability map taking into consideration a variety of environmental criteria is created with the help of a SDSS. The method used is the analytical hierarchy process which is integrated in ArcGIS. Areas most suitable to sand and gravel extraction are located in the high terraces, and in those terraces covered by pediments where the thickness of resource is relatively high. These areas are far from valuable natural areas, outside areas most vulnerable to groundwater contamination, and beneath soils with poor irrigation characteristics.     

Risk assessment strategies for the reactivation of earth flows in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning.     

A new method of estimating the ratio between in situ rock stresses and tectonics based on empirical and probabilistic analyses

This paper describes a new procedure for assessing the ratio between in situ stresses in rock masses by means of K (K = σ_H / σ_v, being σ_H and σ_v principal stress) and tectonics for purposes of engineering geology and rock mechanics. The method combines the use of the logic decision tree and the empirical relationship between the Tectonic Stress Index, TSI, and a series of K in situ values obtained from an extensive database. The decision tree considers geological and geophysical factors affecting stress magnitudes both on the regional and local scale. The TSI index is defined by geological and geomechanical parameters. The method proposed provides an assessment of the magnitude of horizontal stresses of tectonic origin. Results for several regions of Europe are presented and the possible applications of the procedure are discussed.     

THERIA_G: a software program to numerically model prograde garnet growth

We present the software program THERIA_G, which allows for numerical simulation of garnet growth in a given volume of rock along any pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) path. THERIA_G assumes thermodynamic equilibrium between the garnet rim and the rock matrix during growth and accounts for component fractionation associated with garnet formation as well as for intracrystalline diffusion within garnet. In addition, THERIA_G keeps track of changes in the equilibrium phase relations, which occur during garnet growth along the specified P–T–t trajectory. This is accomplished by the combination of two major modules: a Gibbs free energy minimization routine is used to calculate equilibrium phase relations including the volume and composition of successive garnet growth increments as P and T and the effective bulk rock composition change. With the second module intragranular multi-component diffusion is modelled for spherical garnet geometry. THERIA_G allows to simulate the formation of an entire garnet population, the nucleation and growth history of which is specified via the garnet crystal size frequency distribution. Garnet growth simulations with THERIA_G produce compositional profiles for the garnet porphyroblasts of each size class of a population and full information on equilibrium phase assemblages for any point along the specified P–T–t trajectory. The results of garnet growth simulation can be used to infer the P–T–t path of metamorphism from the chemical zoning of garnet porphyroblasts. With a hypothetical example of garnet growth in a pelitic rock we demonstrate that it is essential for the interpretation of the chemical zoning of garnet to account for the combined effects of the thermodynamic conditions of garnet growth, the nucleation history and intracrystalline diffusion. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A transdisciplinary analysis of water problems in the mountainous karst areas of Morocco

Water management and engineering in the karstic High Atlas of Morocco are difficult tasks under the prevailing geological, hydrogeological, geomorphological, vegetational and climatic conditions. It is important to be able to understand and predict the characteristics and availability of water for future water planning in the region under changing climatic and agricultural conditions. An interdisciplinary analysis of problems and adequate hydrological modelling tools developed by geologists, hydrologists and biologists are necessary. The karst areas of the High Atlas Mountains are characterised by impermeable triassic basalt underlying substantial subsurface reservoirs with high potential discharge rates. The karst groundwater aquifers are extensive but largely unknown in dimension, probably with a hierarchical network of groundwater flow paths. It is estimated that approximately 70% of the surface water is directly lost to groundwater. Steep landslide- and debris flow prone slopes exist next to coarse-grained, highly porous river beds. Infrequent, high intensity rainfall or snowmelt causes a particularly high flood risk to these karst areas. In addition, agriculture and land use changes have degraded the karst areas. The most important driving forces for degradation include permanent overgrazing even during droughts and the use of firewood by a continually growing population. Large scale degradation of vegetation has occurred in the oro-mediterranean (mountainous Mediterranean) zone, between 2600 and 3400 m which coincides with the most important zone for karstic groundwater creation. The combination of high amounts of groundwater flow and rapid surface flow due to sparse vegetation has increased the problems of flood flow.     

Water and sanitation in the Buenos Aires metropolitan region: Fragmented markets, splintering effects?

This paper discusses the provision of water and sanitation services and the related urban impacts in Buenos Aires circa 2005. The first part of the paper focuses on the metropolitan region (BAMR) which is larger than the area served by the Aguas Argentinas S.A. (AASA) concession (i.e. the capital and its conurbano). It highlights a form of institutional fragmentation that is reflected in the diverse management practices of the numerous service providers and results in differentiated levels of and access to services. The paper discusses the technical, economic and regulatory factors that have historically resulted in this institutional fragmentation. The second part of the article focuses on AASA’s water concession agreement. It demonstrates that, although the agreement had an in-built splintering logic, its implementation led to a more “integrated approach” based on the “reality on the ground”. On the whole, the conclusion regarding the application of the splintering urbanism concept to Buenos Aires is a mixed one and depends on the scale of observation. Although at regional level (BAMR), a form of “institutional fragmentation” would appear to be obvious, it is the result of a long and complex historical process and, while recent neo-liberal reforms in service provisions have “cemented” this fragmentation, they did not actually cause it. If we take the AASA service area in isolation, the trend in the decade following the contracting out of the service has been one of improved service provision and access—although this was not achieved through increased integration of the supply system. Finally, in the case of the Buenos Aires metropolitan region, the splintering urbanism thesis defended by Marvin and Graham needs to be nuanced in several significant ways.     

The calcium carbonate saturation state in cyanobacterial mats throughout Earth’s history

Through early lithification, cyanobacterial mats produced vast amounts of CaCO₃ on Precambrian carbonate platforms (before 540 Myr ago). The superposition of lithified cyanobacterial mats forms internally laminated, macroscopic structures known as stromatolites. Similar structures can be important constituents of Phanerozoic carbonate platforms (540 Myr to present). Early lithification in modern marine cyanobacterial mats is thought to be driven by a metabolically-induced increase of the CaCO₃ saturation state (Ω_CaCO3) in the mat. However, it is uncertain which microbial processes produce the Ω_CaCO3 increase and to which extent similar Ω_CaCO3 shifts were possible in Precambrian oceans whose chemistry differed from that of the modern ocean. I developed a numerical model that calculates Ω_CaCO3 in cyanobacterial mats and used it to tackle these questions. The model is first applied to simulate Ω_CaCO3 in modern calcifying cyanobacterial mats forming at Highborne Cay (Bahamas); it shows that while cyanobacterial photosynthesis increases Ω_CaCO3 considerably, sulphate reduction has a small and opposite effect on mat Ω_CaCO3 because it is coupled to H₂S oxidation with O₂ which produces acidity. Numerical experiments show that the magnitude of the Ω_CaCO3 increase is proportional to DIC in DIC-limited waters (DIC < 3-10 mM), is proportional to pH when ambient water DIC is not limiting and always proportional to the concentration of Ca²⁺ in ambient waters. With oceanic Ca²⁺ concentrations greater than a few millimolar, an appreciable increase in Ω_CaCO3 occurs in mats under a wide range of environmental conditions, including those supposed to exist in the oceans of the past 2.8 Gyr. The likely lithological expression is the formation of the microsparitic stromatolite microtexture—indicative of CaCO₃ precipitation within the mats under the control of microbial activity—which is found in carbonate rocks spanning from the Precambrian to recent. The model highlights the potential for an increase in the magnitude of the Ω_CaCO3 shift in cyanobacterial mats throughout Earth’s history produced by a decrease in salinity and temperature of the ocean, a decrease in atmospheric pCO₂ and an increase in solar irradiance. Such a trend would explain how the formation of the microsparitic stromatolite microtexture was possible as the Ω_CaCO3 of the ocean decreased from the Paleoproterozoic to the Phanerozoic.     

Contribution of the SISCam Web-based GIS to the seismotectonic study of Campania (Southern Apennines): an example of application to the Sannio-area

In this article the implementation and potential of the Seismotectonic Information System of the Campania Region (SISCam) are described, in particular an application of this Web-based GIS system to the seismotectonic analysis of the Sannio area (Southern Apennines) is performed. WEB-GIS technologies greatly contribute to both the environmental monitoring and the disaster management of areas affected by high natural risks. Specifically the SISCam system has been developed with the aim of providing easy access and fast diffusion, through Internet technology, of the most significant geological, geophysical, and territorial data relative to the Campania Region. The Sannio area has been selected as our application example because it is among the most active seismic regions in Italy. This portion of the Southern Apennines which was hit by the June 5, 1688 strong earthquake (M _W = 6.7, CPTI 1999) and by some low- and moderate-energy seismic sequences (1990–1992, 1997), is characterized by a complex inherited tectonic setting and low-tectonic deformation rates that hide the seismogenic sources position. Since this case study turned out to be complicated, the use of the SIScam WEB-GIS has become indispensable because it allowed us to visualize, integrate and analyze all the data available, in order to obtain an accurate and direct picture of the seismotectonic setting of the area. Moreover, a different approach of data analysis was necessary, due to the lack of up-to-date neotectonic and structural data; therefore, the operation of this GIS system enabled us to process and generate some original informative layers, through image analysis, such as new structural lineaments represented on a map of the potential active faults of the area, which has been the final result of our application, as a contribution to new knowledge about the local seismic risk parameters.