The importance of crustal structure in explaining the observed uncertainties in ground motion estimation

In this short article, the possible reduction in the standard deviation of empirical ground motion estimation equations through the modelling of the effect of crustal structure is assessed through the use of ground-motion simulations. Simulations are computed for different source-to-site distances, focal depths, focal mechanisms and for crustal models of the Pyrenees, the western Alps and the upper Rhine Graben. Through the method of equivalent hypocentral distance introduced by Douglas et al. [(2004) Bull Earthquake Eng 2(1): 75–99] to model the effect of crustal structure in empirical equations, the scatter associated with such equations derived using these simulated data could be reduced to zero if real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions were derived for every combination of mechanism, depth and crustal structure present in the simulated dataset. This is, obviously, impractical. The relative importance of each parameter in affecting the decay of ground motions is assessed here. It is found that variation in focal depth is generally more important than the effect of crustal structure when deriving the real-to-equivalent hypocentral distance mapping functions. In addition, mechanism and magnitude do not have an important impact on the decay rate.     

Experimental studies on the effects of fracture on the P and S wave velocity propagation in sedimentary rock (“Calcarenite del Salento”)

Experimental studies were carried out in laboratory in order to investigate the effects of fracture on compressional (P) wave and shear (S) wave velocity propagation and therefore the relations between seismic properties and rock mass parameters. The discontinuity index, I_d, fracture density parameter C, linear fracture parameter Γ and the rock quality designation (RQD) were used to describe the rock mass parameters. These parameters are analyzed and then related to the seismic properties. Four vertical aligned fractures were created on an intact calcarenite block, 0.6 m long, 0.4 m thick and 0.4 m width, by sawing. The measures were carried out in four different blocks of cacarenite, having the same physical properties, and in four different phases: in first block the fractures were filled with air; in the second block the fractures were filled with “terra rossa”; in third block the fractures were filled with wet “terra rossa” and in the fourth block the fractures were filled with clay. The test results were statistically analysed using the method of least squares regression and polynomial relationships with high correlation coefficient were found between the fractured rock parameters and P-wave, S-wave velocities and V_p/V_s ratio. The investigations suggest that the P-wave and S-wave velocities decrease with increasing the fracture parameters, while the V_p/V_s ratio increases with decreasing the fracture parameters.

Furthermore the results of the experimental studies were applied on the seismic refraction tomography data acquired in a great measurements campaign undertaken in the Adriatic salentina coast (south Italy) in order to monitor the coastal erosion.

The geophysical results, using the polynomial relationships between the fractured rock parameters and P-wave velocity, are in good agreement with the geomorphological and geological results.     

A method to estimate the total magnetization direction from a distortion analysis of magnetic anomalies1

Knowledge of the declination and inclination of the total and induced magnetization vectors is normally required for the interpretation and analysis of magnetic anomalies. A new method of estimating the direction of the total magnetization vector of magnetized rocks from magnetic anomalies is proposed. The unknown declination and inclination (D*_T and I*_T) can be found by applying a reduction-to-the-pole operator to the measured anomalies for different couples of total magnetization direction parameters (D_T and I_T) and by observing the variation of the anomaly minimum as a function of both D_T and I*_T.and D*_T are estimated using the maximum of this function. Comparing our method to previous methods, one advantage is that our estimates are not zero-level dependent; furthermore, the method allows inclinations to be well estimated, with the same accuracy as declinations; finally declinations are not underestimated. Our method is applied to a real case and meaningful results are obtained; it is shown that the feasibility of the method is improved by removing the low-frequency components.     

Rapid evaluation of an indicator of seismic vulnerability in small urban nuclei

The expected fraction of buildings lost in the event of an earthquake of a given intensity can be considered as a useful indicator of the seismic vulnerability of a small urban nucleus and can be used for the evaluation of seismic risk on a regional scale. This work describes a procedure for quantifying this indicator through data obtained from the buildings which constitute the nucleus during rapid on-site surveys. The knowledge on which the procedure is based is that given by the observed vulnerability of old Italian centres.     

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.

     

Semi-automated regional classification of the style of activity of slow rock-slope deformations using PS InSAR and SqueeSAR velocity data

Large slow rock-slope deformations, including deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and large landslides, are widespread in alpine environments. They develop over thousands of years by progressive failure, resulting in slow movements that impact infrastructures and can eventually evolve into catastrophic rockslides. A robust characterization of their style of activity is thus required in a risk management perspective. We combine an original inventory of slow rock-slope deformations with different PS-InSAR and SqueeSAR datasets to develop a novel, semi-automated approach to characterize and classify 208 slow rock-slope deformations in Lombardia (Italian Central Alps) based on their displacement rate, kinematics, heterogeneity and morphometric expression. Through a peak analysis of displacement rate distributions, we characterize the segmentation of mapped landslides and highlight the occurrence of nested sectors with differential activity and displacement rates. Combining 2D decomposition of InSAR velocity vectors and machine learning classification, we develop an automatic approach to characterize the kinematics of each landslide. Then, we sequentially combine principal component and K-medoids cluster analyses to identify groups of slow rock-slope deformations with consistent styles of activity. Our methodology is readily applicable to different landslide datasets and provides an objective and cost-effective support to land planning and the prioritization of local-scale studies aimed at granting safety and infrastructure integrity.

     

A CPT-based model to predict the installation torque of helical piles in sand

Helical piles present a possible alternative to driven displacement piles in the offshore sector. While this type of pile is used widely in the onshore environment, design methods tend to be highly empirical and there is considerable uncertainty around the bearing resistance and the installation resistance required to install large diameter piles necessary to resist uplift. The paper combines a theoretical model for estimating torque resistance from the literature with a cone penetration test (CPT)-based model originally developed to estimate the axial resistance of helical piles and to predict the installation torque required to install piles in sand. The model appears to be able to capture the general installation behavior of piles across a range of scales and in various sand states.     

Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings exposed to slow-moving landslides at medium and large scales

Slow-moving landslides yearly induce huge economic losses worldwide in terms of damage to facilities and interruption of human activities. Within the landslide risk management framework, the consequence analysis is a key step entailing procedures mainly based on identifying and quantifying the exposed elements, defining an intensity criterion and assessing the expected losses. This paper presents a two-scale (medium and large) procedure for vulnerability assessment of buildings located in areas affected by slow-moving landslides. Their intensity derives from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) satellite data analysis, which in the last decade proved to be capable of providing cost-effective long-term displacement archives. The analyses carried out on two study areas of southern Italy (one per each of the addressed scales) lead to the generation, as an absolute novelty, of both empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. These curves, once further validated, can be valuably used as tools for consequence forecasting purposes and, more in general, for planning the most suitable slow-moving landslide risk mitigation strategies.     

A parallel TreeSPH code for galaxy formation

We describe a new implementation of a parallel TreeSPH code with the aim of simulating galaxy formation and evolution. The code has been parallelized using shmem , a Cray proprietary library to handle communications between the 256 processors of the Silicon Graphics T3E massively parallel supercomputer hosted by the Cineca Super-computing Center (Bologna, Italy). ¹
The code combines the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method for solving hydrodynamical equations with the popular Barnes & Hut tree-code to perform gravity calculation with an N ×log  N scaling, and it is based on the scalar TreeSPH code developed by Carraro et al. Parallelization is achieved by distributing particles along processors according to a workload criterion.
Benchmarks, in terms of load balance and scalability, of the code are analysed and critically discussed against the adiabatic collapse of an isothermal gas sphere test using 2×10⁴ particles on 8 processors. The code results balance at more than the 95 per cent level. Increasing the number of processors, the load balance slightly worsens. The deviation from perfect scalability for increasing number of processors is almost negligible up to 32 processors. Finally, we present a simulation of the formation of an X-ray galaxy cluster in a flat cold dark matter cosmology, using 2×10⁵ particles and 32 processors, and compare our results with Evrard's P³M–SPH simulations.
Additionally we have incorporated radiative cooling, star formation, feedback from SNe of types II and Ia, stellar winds and UV flux from massive stars, and an algorithm to follow the chemical enrichment of the interstellar medium. Simulations with some of these ingredients are also presented.     

Mud volcanoes of Italy

The locations and information about the sizes of 61 mud volcanoes on the Italian mainland and Sicily, plus an area of mud diapirism in the Italian Adriatic Sea, are presented. Data about the emission products are also provided. The majority of these mud volcanoes are found where thick sedimentary sequences occur within a zone of tectonic compression associated with local plate tectonic activity: the movement of the Adriatic microplate between the converging African and Eurasian plates. The principal gas emitted by these mud volcanoes is methane, which probably originates from deep within the sediments. Other mud volcanoes, associated with igneous volcanism, produce mainly carbon dioxide. The mud diapirs in the Adriatic Sea are thought to form as a result of the mobilization of shallow gassy sediments. It has been shown that radon emissions from mud volcanoes are indicators of forthcoming earthquake events. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.