Stochastic analysis of the linear equivalent response of bridge piers with aseismic devices

The dynamic response of bridge piers with aseismic devices to earthquake excitation is evaluated by the stochastic equivalent linearization technique. The seismic acceleration is schematized through a Gaussian stationary random process. The pier is considered linear elastic, the span is idealized as a rigid mass, the restoring force of the device is represented through a non-linear differential model. The study of the complex modes of the linearized system gives an interpretation of the mechanical behaviour, leads to a formally elementary solution and highlights some phenomena which are typical of the hysteretic systems, particularly of those marked by weak hardening. Even though the solution is limited to the stationary field, it brings out several noteworthy considerations about the effective non stationary behaviour of the structure. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uplift rates defined by U-series and 14C ages of serpulid-encrusted speleothems from submerged caves near Siracusa,Sicily (Italy)

We have established a plausible rate of uplift near Siracusa in southeastern Sicily (Italy) over the last glacial–interglacial cycle using U-series ages of submerged speleothem calcite and ¹⁴C ages of calcite serpulid layers that encrust the speleothems during cave submergence. The precisely determined ages of these sea level benchmarks were compared with expected relative sea level position based on glacio-hydro-isostatic modeling to assess the rate of uplift in this region. When combined with the age of various late Holocene archaeological sites that have been recently described and characterized in terms of their functional position relative to sea level these data collectively define a rate of uplift ≤0.4 mm a^?1 along this portion of the Sicilian coastline. These results are consistent with an age assignment of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5.3 or 5.5 for the Akradina terrace, which in turn places temporal constraints on paleoshorelines above and below this level.     

A 40,000-year record of environmental change from ancient Lake Ohrid (Albania and Macedonia)

Lake Ohrid is considered to be of Pliocene origin and is the oldest extant lake in Europe. A 1,075-cm-long sediment core was recovered from the southeastern part of the lake, from a water depth of 105 m. The core was investigated using geophysical, granulometric, biogeochemical, diatom, ostracod, and pollen analyses. Tephrochronology and AMS radiocarbon dating of plant macrofossils reveals that the sediment sequence spans the past ca. 39,500 years and features a hiatus between ca. 14,600 and 9,400 cal. year BP. The Pleistocene sequence indicates relatively stable and cold conditions, with steppe vegetation in the catchment, at least partial winter ice-cover of the lake, and oxygenated bottom waters at the coring site. The Holocene sequence indicates that the catchment vegetation had changed to forest dominated by pine and summer-green oak. Several of the proxies suggest the impact of abrupt climate oscillations such as the 8.2 or 4.0 ka event. The observed changes, however, cannot be related clearly to a change in temperature or humidity. Human impact started about 5,000 cal. year BP and increased significantly during the past 2,400 years. Water column mixing conditions, inflow from subaquatic springs, and human impact are the most important parameters influencing internal lake processes, notably affecting the composition and characteristics of the sediments.     

Scaling soil water retention functions using particle-size distribution

The presented study explores the prediction of soil water retention and its variability from soil texture and bulk density measurements, using a physically-based scaling technique. Specifically, the Arya–Paris (AP) physico-empirical model is applied to two soil datasets that are collected from two catchments located in different areas of Southern Italy. Laboratory-measured soil water retention functions are scaled to characterize soil variability. The laboratory-measured and AP-predicted reference water retention functions are compared by evaluating the lognormal distribution of derived scaling factors, relative to the mean reference retention function. Since the scaling theory assumes geometric similitude for the investigated soils, successful application of using particle-size distribution to estimate soil water retention requires separation of soils with different textures, using variance analysis. We conclude that variability in soil water retention can be determined from limited soil water retention data using the scaling approach when combined with particle-size distribution measurements. This method can potentially be used as an effective tool for identifying soil hydrologic response at catchment scales.     

Managing tourist harbors: Are managers aware of the real environmental risks?

The management of tourist harbors has traditionally been analyzed with little attention to managers’ awareness of the effects of their decisions on the environment. The aims of this paper were to assess managers’ perceptions of the main environmental risks in their regions and to identify common behaviors among the managers involved in eight tourist harbors in southern Italy, where the same tourist harbor is often managed by different managers. A questionnaire was administered and statistical analyses were performed to test differences between managers of big and small harbors. Managers showed a low perception of environmental risks and, surprisingly, in certain harbors, some meaningful cases were highlighted: the most homogeneous case, where all managers showed a reasonable level of environmental awareness, and cases with strong mismatches among managers. In this paper, we propose that an assessment of managers’ perceptions of risk be included as a new form of analysis when environmental risk assessments are carried out.     

Analysis of Ground Deformation Detected Using the SBAS-DInSAR Technique in Umbria, Central Italy

Ground deformation affecting the Umbria region (central Italy) in the 9-year period from 1992 to 2000 was investigated through multi-temporal Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR). For the purpose, the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) technique was adopted, which allows studying the temporal evolution of the detected deformation at two spatial scales: a low-resolution (regional) scale, and a full-resolution (local) scale. For the analysis, SAR data acquired by the European Remote Sensing (ERS-1/2) satellites along ascending and descending orbits were used. The detected deformation was analysed to investigate its relevance to geophysical, geomorphologic, and human-induced processes that may result in hazardous conditions to the population of Umbria. Low-resolution deformation data were used to: (i) determine the amount of displacement caused by the Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence from September 1997 to April 1998 in the Foligno area, (ii) determine the number and percentage of the known landslides that can be monitored by the DInSAR technology in the investigated area, and (iii) identify and measure subsidence induced by exploitation of a confined aquifer in the Valle Umbra. Results indicate that earthquakes moved through the Foligno area westwards up to 3.9 cm and with an uplift reaching 1.7 cm. Intersection in a GIS of the low-resolution deformation maps with a detailed landslide inventory map allowed the determination that the portion of landslides that can be monitored by the SBAS-DInSAR technique in Umbria ranges from 2.7% to 3.4%, and the percentage of the total landslide area ranges from 10.4% to 12.8%. In the Valle Umbra, a dependency was found between the time and the amount of detected ground deformation, and the record of water withdrawal. The full-resolution deformation data were used to investigate the movement of the Ivancich landslide, in the Assisi Municipality. Joint analysis of the spatial and the temporal characteristics of the ground displacement allowed the formulation of a hypothesis on the landslide geometry and deformation pattern.     

Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Forests play a significant role in protecting people, settlements in mountainous terrains from hydrogeomorphic hazards, including shallow landslides. Although several studies have investigated the interactions between forests and slope instabilities, a full understanding of them has not yet been obtained. Additionally, models that incorporate forest stand properties into slope failure probability analyses have not been developed. In principle, physical‐based models, which are powerful tools for landslide hazard analyses, represent an appropriate approach to linking stand properties and slope stability. However, the reliability of these models depends on numerous parameters that describe highly complex geotechnical and hydrological processes (e.g. potential failure depth, saturation ratio, root reinforcement, etc.) that are difficult to measure and model. In particular, the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement remains a problem, and the use of physically based models from a forest management perspective has been limited. This paper presents a procedure for assessing slope stability in terms of the Factor of Safety that accounts for forest stand characteristics such as tree density, average diameter at breast height and minimum distance between trees. The procedure combines a three‐dimensional (3D) slope stability model with an evaluation of the variability of root reinforcement in terms of a probability distribution, according to forest characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the residual uncertainties in both stand characteristics and 3D stability model parameters. The proposed method was applied in a subalpine catchment in the Italian Alps, mainly covered by coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and high landslide risk. The results suggest that the procedure is highly reliable, according to landslide inventory maps [area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.82 and modified success rate (MSR) is 0.70]. Thus, it represents a promising tool for studying the role of root reinforcement in landslide hazard mapping and guiding forest management from a slope stability perspective. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated Geophysical Investigations at the Greek Kamarina Site (Southern Sicily,Italy)

Kamarina, located in southern Sicily (Italy), was an important Greek colony since its foundation in the sixth century BC. Archaeological excavations, carried out since the twentieth century, uncovered only limited portions of the site so far. Despite the importance of the Greek colony, the presence of remarkable buildings that archaeologists expected to bring to light has not found fully correspondence in the archaeological excavations. Consequently, the integrated geophysical prospection carried out in the study area is aimed to support and address the future archaeological investigations. After the photographic and thermographic survey obtained by an unmanned aerial vehicle, we performed a systematic survey through ground magnetic and GPR methods over an area of 6200 m². The acquisition procedures have been optimized in order to get the best results combining high resolution and elevated speed of acquisition. The results derived from the three geophysical techniques have been conveniently combined by means of a cluster analysis, allowing us to clearly identify a series of buried archaeological features. Because of their geometrical characteristics, often in good agreement with the spatial arrangement of the archaeological remains at the surface, these buried archaeological features can be interpreted as roads, walls, or buildings foundations in which the various construction phases of the city can be clearly recognized. The integrated approach has proven to be essential for a robust interpretation of the archaeogeophysical investigation.     

Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations using Iranian strong-motion data

A recently compiled, comprehensive, and good-quality strong-motion database of the Iranian earthquakes has been used to develop local empirical equations for the prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) up to 4.0 s. The equations account for style of faulting and four site classes and use the horizontal distance from the surface projection of the rupture plane as a distance measure. The model predicts the geometric mean of horizontal components and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio. A total of 1551 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 200 shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) with moment magnitudes ranging from M_w 4.0 to 7.3 are used to perform regression analysis using the random effects algorithm of Abrahamson and Youngs (Bull Seism Soc Am 82:505–510, 1992), which considers between-events as well as within-events errors. Due to the limited data used in the development of previous Iranian ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and strong trade-offs between different terms of GMPEs, it is likely that the previously determined models might have less precision on their coefficients in comparison to the current study. The richer database of the current study allows improving on prior works by considering additional variables that could not previously be adequately constrained. Here, a functional form used by Boore and Atkinson (Earthquake Spect 24:99–138, 2008) and Bindi et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 9:1899–1920, 2011) has been adopted that allows accounting for the saturation of ground motions at close distances. A regression has been also performed for the V/H in order to retrieve vertical components by scaling horizontal spectra. In order to take into account epistemic uncertainty, the new model can be used along with other appropriate GMPEs through a logic tree framework for seismic hazard assessment in Iran and Middle East region.