Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity

Summary The number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region (south of equator; 105–160° E) has apparently declined since the start of reliable (satellite) observations in the 1969/70 season. However, the number of more intense cyclones (with minimum pressures dropping to 970 hPa or lower) has increased slightly. The numbers of weak (minimum pressures not dropping below 990 hPa) and moderate systems (minimum pressures between 970 and 990 hPa) have declined. Possible reasons for these different trends are discussed. The decline in the number of weaker cyclones may at least partly reflect improved understanding of the nature of some weak systems. The decline in the number of cyclones more intense than 990 hPa primarily reflects the downward trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Previous work has demonstrated that the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region each cyclone season is related to the value of the SOI prior to the start of the cyclone season. This relationship is clearest with the number of moderate cyclones. The SOI is only weakly related to the number of intense or weak cyclones. The increase in the number of intense cyclones is not attributable to the trend in the SOI. Nor is there clear reason, at present, to suspect that it is artificial (i.e., due to changes in observing or analysis techniques).With 7 Figures     

Quantifying the Effects of Well Development in Unconsolidated Material

A fully instrumented physical model was designed and built to reproduce development by surging and monitor its effects during surging and after development. The model simulates a horizontal layer in a confined aquifer with control of vertical overburden pressure. An automatic apparatus produced development by surging in successive phases up to 24 hours. Aquifer tests in steady-state conditions were performed between successive phases. The paper reports the main results of three experiments performed with Johnson screens 200 mm in diameter; they had slot sizes between the D₅₄ and D₇₀ of the aquifer soil. This soil was placed under controlled conditions, and initial homogeneity was obtained as confirmed by initial control tests. Pore pressures (and thus hydraulic heads) were continuously monitored during development phases and aquifer tests by 22 electronic piezometers at distances between 0 and 1 m from the screen. These piezometers measured water pressures every 0.1 s when required. Solid particles passing through the screen were recovered to study the solid yield and the gradation of particles. Positive and negative values of local gradients reached values up to 400 close to the screen at the beginning of development and decreased with time of development. These high values produced high seepage forces displacing particles in the aquifer. The well yield was increased by a factor of 6 after development. These model test results confirmed empirical criteria on entrance velocity, internal stability criteria, and field values of "sand" production by development. In addition, they enabled a quantification of skin effects to be considered in interpreting an aquifer test.     

Evaluation of Geochemical Reference Standards by X-Ray Fluorescence Analysis

Twenty five elements in twenty six geochemical reference standards analyzed by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry yield major and trace element concentrations close to consensus values. Ninety percent of our analyses agree with consensus values for standards to within pm 0.5 to 1.5 relative percent for major elements and pm 3 to 5 relative percent or pm 1-3 ppm, whichever is higher, for trace elements. Consistent divergences from consensus values of trace elements are noted.     

Arbitrary amplitude dust–ion acoustic solitary structures in electronegative plasma

In the present study existence domains of large amplitude dust–ion acoustic (DIA) solitary structures are analyzed in an unmagnetized and collisionless, electronegative plasma containing inertial positive and negative ions, inertialess superthermal electrons with two different temperatures and negatively charged stationary dust. Using the Sagdeev pseudopotential technique, the energy-balance equation has been derived and the critical values (lower and upper limits) of the Mach number are also determined. The effect of different physical parameters has been analyzed for the formation of these nonlinear structures. Also the critical values of different physical parameters have been determined to establish parametric regimes for the existence of positive/negative potential DIA solitary structures.     

Application of microcosm experiments for quantifying lateral flow and evapotranspiration on recovering bog ecotypes

The importance of characterizing the ecohydrological interactions in natural, damaged/drained, and restored bogs is underscored by the importance of peatlands to global climate change and the growing need for peatland restoration. An understudied aspect of peatland ecohydrology is how shallow lateral flow impacts local hydrological conditions and water balance, which are critical for peatland restoration success. A novel method is presented using microcosms installed in the field to understand the dynamics of shallow lateral flow. Analysis of the difference in water table fluctuation inside and outside the microcosm experimental areas allowed the water balance to be constrained and the calculation of lateral flow and evapotranspiration. As an initial demonstration of this method, a series of four microcosm experiments were set up in locations with differing ecological quality and land management histories, on a raised bog complex in the midlands of Ireland. The timing and magnitude of the lateral flow differed considerably between locations with differing ecological conditions, indicating that shallow lateral flow is an important determining factor in the ecohydrological trajectory of a recovering bog system. For locations where Sphagnum spp. moss layer was present, a slow continuous net lateral input of water from the upstream catchment area supported the water table during drought periods, which was not observed in locations lacking Sphagnum. Consistent with other studies, evapotranspiration was greater in locations with a Spaghnum moss layer than in locations with a surface of peat soil.     

Isolation of colloidal monomethyl mercury in natural waters using cross-flow ultrafiltration techniques

A series of experiments was conducted to evaluate the appropriateness of cross-flow ultrafiltration (CFUF) techniques for the determination of the phase speciation of monomethyl mercury (MeHg) in natural waters. Spiral-wound cartridge (Amicon S1Y1) and Miniplate (Amicon) were evaluated for their nominal molecular weight cut-offs of 1 and 10 kDa, respectively. The ultrafiltration behavior of standard macromolecules showed that the permeation of high molecular weight (HMW) organic macromolecules was not significant when a concentration factor (CF)>15 was used. The retention of low molecular weight (LMW) molecules was significant, especially at a low CF<5, suggesting that the use of a high CF (15) will minimize the retention of LMW molecules. Sorptive losses of MeHg in the solution phase to the 1 kDa membrane were negligible, but MeHg bound to HMW macromolecules was still retained (20%), even with a preconditioned membrane. The mass balance recovery of MeHg during ultrafiltration averaged 101±15% (n=7) and 105±14% (n=5) for the 1 and 10 kDa membranes, respectively. Sample storage over 24 h caused significant coagulation (47%) of the <10 kDa MeHg into the 10 kDa–0.45 μm colloidal or the particulate MeHg pool. The 1 kDa–0.45 μm colloidal MeHg in Galveston Bay and the Trinity River water samples accounted for 40–48% of the filter-passing MeHg, although the most abundant fraction (52–60%) of MeHg was the truly dissolved fraction (<1 kDa). The partition coefficient between the colloidal (1 kDa–0.45 μm) and truly dissolved MeHg (average log K_C=5.2) was higher than the partition coefficient based on particle/filter-passing (average log K_D=4.6) or particle/truly dissolved MeHg (average log K_P=4.8), suggesting that MeHg has stronger affinity for natural colloids than macroparticulate materials (>0.45 μm).     

Design of geological data systems for developing nations

For analytical, inventory, and a variety of other basic types of geological data the main functions of an information management system can adequately be accommodated by simple systems in which comprehensiveness is compromised in favor of practicality and ease of implementation. Albeit possessing some shortcomings, such a strategy is likely to prove profitable particularly to geologists in developing nations who are confronted with the task of self-developing much needed geological data systems in the face of limited electronic data processing resources. Based on the experience of the Geological Survey of Israel, several considerations and practical guidelines for the design and implementation of such systems can be outlined. Data bases should be limited in their scope to specific subjects or projects, be designed to serve existing and only the more realistic foreseeable needs, and include provisions for merger and intelligent communication with related files. Such data bases typically contain logically simple-structured information and are small in size. Revision, deletion, and update transactions are infrequent; the search criteria for retrieval are for the most part predictable and a fast response time is not essential. These attributes prescribe a preference for simple fixed- or semi-free-format sequential files which, in turn, simplify appreciably the programming of the supporting software. Input forms should be meticulously planned with due consideration given to aspects of software compatibility, user convenience and acceptance, and efficiency in data gathering. The use of standard forms should be integrated into the institution's routine to facilitate direct data entry by each contributor, thereby improving and economizing the data collection process, and to secure data capture at its acquisition level (field, laboratory). The user's more immediate retrieval needs are adequately satisfied by a master list, documenting the entire data base and a number of external inverted index directories cross-referencing the master list according to the attributes by which the file is most likely to be searched. Further development of output capabilities should be directed to provide for flexible retrieval by multikey query functions and base map posting. For data files storing raw chemical analyses of rocks and water samples, the incorporation of processing capabilities to compute interpretative geochemical parameters as an integral part of the system's output is particularly useful. Paper presented at the 25th International Geological Congress, Section 16A, Sydney, Australia, August 1976.