Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th...     

Bimodal volcanism in northeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Greater Antilles Island Arc): Genetic links with Cretaceous subduction of the mid-Atlantic ridge Caribbean spur

Bimodal extrusive volcanic rocks in the northeast Greater Antilles Arc consist of two interlayered suites, including (1) a predominantly basaltic suite, dominated by island arc basalts with small proportions of andesite, and (2) a silicic suite, similar in composition to small volume intrusive veins of oceanic plagiogranite commonly recognized in oceanic crustal sequences. The basaltic suite is geochemically characterized by variable enrichment in the more incompatible elements and negative chondrite-normalized HFSE anomalies. Trace element melting and mixing models indicate the magnitude of the subducted sediment component in Antilles arc basalts is highly variable and decreases dramatically from east to west along the arc. In the Virgin Islands, the sediment component ranges between< 0.5 to  1% in Albian rocks, and between  1 and 2% in succeeding Cenomanian to Campanian strata. In comparison, sediment proportions in central Puerto Rico range between 0.5 to 1.5% in the Albian to 2 to > 4% during the Cenomanian-Campanian interval. The silicic suite, consisting predominantly of rhyolites, is characterized by depleted Al₂O₃ (average < 16%), low Mg-number (molar Mg/Mg + Fe < 0.5), TiO₂ (< 1.0%), and Sr/Y (< 10), oceanic or arc-like Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope signatures, and by the presence of plagioclase. All of these features are consistent with an anatexic origin in gabbroic sources, of both oceanic and arc-related origin, within the sub-arc basement. The abundance of silicic lavas varies widely along the length of the arc platform. In the Virgin Islands on the east, rhyolites comprise up to 80% of Lower Albian strata (112 to 105 Ma), and about 20% in post-Albian strata (105 to 100 Ma). Farther west, in Puerto Rico, more limited proportions (< 20%) of silicic lavas were erupted. The systematic variation of both sediment flux and abundance of crustally derived silicic lavas are consistent with current tectonic models of Caribbean evolution involving approximately perpendicular subduction of the Caribbean spur of the mid-Atlantic Ridge, which was located approximately midway between North and South America until Campanian times. Within this hypothetical setting the centrally positioned Virgin Islands terrain remained approximately fixed above the subducting ridge as the Antilles arc platform swept northeastward into the slot between the Americas. Accordingly, heat flow in the Virgin Islands was elevated throughout the Cretaceous, giving rise to widespread crustal melting, whereas the subducted sediment flux was limited. Conversely, toward the west in central Puerto Rico, which was consistently more remote from the subducting ridge, heat flow was relatively low and produced limited crustal melting, while the sediment flux was comparatively elevated.     

Israel's petroleum discovery curve

Oil exploration in Israel began in 1953. Until 1991 a total of 263 exploration wells and 122 development wells were drilled, 3 oil fields and 5 gas fields were discovered, and 4 noncommercial oil discoveries and 1 noncommercial gas discovery were made. Proven in-place reserves amount to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). Exploration focused on six main plays: Syrian Arc anticlines; Mesozoic platform-edge, structural-stratigraphic traps; the Dead Sea graben; Early Mesozoic structures; Saqiye Group biogenic gas; and Hula Group biogenic gas. The more significant discoveries are associated with the first two plays. Ninety percent of the proven reserves were discovered by the first 71 wildcats, which constitute 27 percent of all wildcats drilled to date. During this phase of exploration, the average success was 7 percent, and the average discovery rate was 0.88 MMBOE per wildcat. Most of the following 192 wildcats were dry holes. If, as experts claim, significant reserves are still undiscovered, previous exploration must be deemed inefficient. The quantitative model of the discovery process also leads to such an assessment.     

Alvin-SeaBeam studies of the Sumisu Rift, Izu-Bonin arc

Bimodal volcanism, normal faulting, rapid sedimentation, and hydrothermal circulation characterize the rifting of the Izu-Bonin arc at 31°N. Analysis of the zigzag pattern, in plan view, of the normal faults that bound Sumisu Rift indicates that the extension direction (080° ± 10°) is orthogonal to the regional trend of the volcanic front. Normal faults divide the rift into an inner rift on the arc side, which is the locus for maximum subsidence and sedimentation, and an outer rift further west. Transfer zones that link opposing master faults and/or rift flank uplifts further subdivide the rift into three segments along strike. Volcanism is concentrated along the ENE-trending transfer zone which separates the northern and central rift segments. The differential motion across the zone is accommodated by interdigitating north-trending normal faults rather than by ENE-trending oblique-slip faults. Volcanism in the outer rift has built 50–700 m high edifices without summit craters whereas in the inner rift it has formed two multi-vent en echelon ridges (the largest is 600 m high and 16 km long). The volcanism is dominantly basaltic, with compositions reflecting mantle sources little influenced by arc components. An elongate rhyolite dome and low-temperature hydrothermal deposits occur at the en echelon step in the larger ridge, which is located at the intersection of the transfer zone with the inner rift. The chimneys, veins, and crusts are composed of silica, barite and iron oxide, and are of similar composition to the ferruginous chert that mantles the Kuroko deposits. A 1.2-km transect of seven alvin heat flow measurements at 30°48.5′N showed that the inner-rift-bounding faults may serve as water recharge zones, but that they are not necessarily areas of focussed hydrothermal outflow, which instead occurs through the thick basin sediments. The rift basin and arc margin sediments are probably dominated by permeable rhyolitic pumice and ash erupted from submarine arc calderas such as Sumisu and South Sumisu volcanoes.     

Volcanism in the Sumisu Rift, I. Major element, volatile, and stable isotope geochemistry

A bimodal volcanic suite with KAr ages of 0.05–1.40 Ma was collected from the Sumisu Rift using alvin. These rocks are contemporaneous with island arc tholeiite lavas of the Izu-Ogasawara arc 20 km to the east, and provide a present day example of volcanism associated with arc rifting and back-arc basin initiation. Major element geochemistry of the basalts is most similar to that of basalts found in other, more mature back-arc basins, which indicates that back-arc basins need not begin their magmatic evolution with lavas bearing strong arc signatures.Volatile concentrations distinguish Sumisu Rift basalts from island arc basalts and MORB. H₂O contents, which are at least four times greater than in MORB, suppress plagioclase crystallization. This suppression results in a more mafic fractionating assemblage, which prevents Al₂O₃ depletion and delays the initiation of Fe₂O_3^(tot) and TiO₂ enrichment. However, unlike arc basalts,Fe^3+/ΣFe ratios are only slightly higher than in MORB and are insufficient to cause magnetite saturation early enough to suppress Fe₂O_3^(tot) and TiO₂ enrichment. Thus, major element trends are more similar to those of MORB than arcs.H₂O, CO₂ and S are undersaturated relative to pure phase solubility curves, indicating exsolution of an H₂O-rich mixed gas phase. HighH₂O/S, highδD, and low (MORB-like)δ³⁴S ratios are considered primary and distinctive of the back-arc basin setting.     

Dissolved trace element cycles in the San Francisco Bay estuary

Dissolved trace element (copper, nickel, cadmium, zinc, cobalt, and iron) concentrations were measured in surface water samples collected from 27 stations in the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento—San Joaquin Delta during April, August and December of 1989. The trace element distributions were relatively similar for all three sampling periods, and evidenced two distinct biogeochemical regimes within the estuarine system. The two regimes were comprised of relatively typical trace element gradients in the northern reach and anthropogenically perturbed gradients in the southern reach of the estuary. These dichotomous trace element distributions were consistent with previous reports on the distributions of nutrients and some other constituents within the estuary.In the northern reach, trace element and dissolved phosphate concentrations were non-conservative. Simple estuarine mixing models indicated substantial internal sources of dissolved copper (46–150%), nickel (250–500%) and cadmium (630–780%) relative to riverine inputs in April and August, and sizable internal sinks for dissolved cobalt (> 99%) and iron (> 70%) during the same periods. Dissolved zinc fluxes varied temporally, with a relatively large (135%) internal source in April and a relatively small (29%) internal sink in August.Concentrations of many trace elements (copper, nickel, cadmium, zinc, and cobalt) in the southern reach were anomalously high relative to concentrations at comparable salinities in the northern reach. Mass balance calculations indicated that those excesses were primarily due to anthropogenic inputs (waste-water discharges and urban runoff) and diagenetic remobilization from benthic sediments. The magnitude of these excesses was amplified by the long hydraulic residence time of dissolved constituents within the South Bay.The influence of other factors was evident throughout the system. Notably, upwelling appeared to elevate substantially dissolved cadmium concentrations at the mouth of the estuary and authigenic flocculation appeared to dominate the cycling of dissolved iron in both the northern and southern reaches of the system. Biological scavenging, geochemical scavenging and diagenic remobilization were also found to be important in different parts of the estuary. Additional complementary information is required to quantify accurately these processes.