The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

Ultra-High Resolution Nitrate in Polar Ice as Indicator of Past Solar Activity

Ionization in the polar atmosphere causes the formation of nitrate compounds, which are frozen out and incorporated into the layers of the polar ice sheets. From a 122-m ice core collected in 1992 on the central Greenland ice sheet, it has been possible to examine a solar signal in a ultra-high resolution record of nitrate concentrations. The sequence extends over a period of 415 years at a temporal resolution of no less than one analysis per month (total number of samples 7776 resulting from 1.5 cm sampling along the entire core). This type of measurement reveals major nitrate anomalies which are thought to result from the injection of individual solar proton events into the winter polar stratosphere. For this reason, the large nitrate anomalies provide the possibility to delineate a signal of solar activity well beyond the known geophysical records.     

Hydrothermal gases offshore Milos Island, Greece

Hydrothermal fluids emerge from the seafloor of Paleohori Bay on Milos. The gases in these fluids contain mostly CO₂ but CH₄ concentrations up to 2% are present. The stable carbon isotopic composition of the CO₂ (near 0%) indicates an inorganic carbon source (dissociation of underlying marine carbonates). The carbon and hydrogen isotopes of most CH₄ samples are enriched in the heavy species (δ¹³C = −9.4 to −17.8‰; δD = −102 to −189‰) which is believed to be characteristic for an abiogenic production of CH₄ by CO₂-reduction (Fischer-Tropsch reactions). Depletions in the deuterium content of three CH₄ samples (to −377%) are probably caused by unknown subsurface rock alteration processes. Secondary hydrogen isotope exchange processes between methane, hydrogen and water are most likely responsible for calculated unrealistic methane formation temperatures.

We show that excess helium, slightly enriched in ³He, is present in the hydrothermal fluids emerging the seafloor of Paleohori Bay. When the isotopic ratio of the excess component is calculated a ³He/⁴He_excess of 3.6 · 10⁻⁶ is obtained: This indicates that the excess component consists of about one third of mantle helium and two thirds of radiogenic helium. We infer that the mantle-derived component has been strongly diluted by radiogenic helium during the ascent of the fluids to the surface.     

Geoarchaeological investigations of St. Ann's Bay,Jamaica: The search for the Columbus Caravels and an assessment of 1000 years of human land use

A complex interbedded sequence of shallow bay, alluvial fan, and lagoon/marsh facies was revealed during geoarchaeological investigations of St. Ann's Bay, Jamaica. Eighteen radiocarbon ages and time-diagnostic artifacts were obtained from these sediments. From these data, the landscape evolution of St. Ann's Bay, Jamaica, during the last 4800 years is reconstructed. The landscape reconstructions for St. Ann's Bay are used to identify areas where the two caravels abandoned by Christopher Columbus in A. D. 1504 might be located. In addition, two periods of rapid sedimentation, one from A. D. 1000 to 1300 (lagoon filling) and the other between A. D. 1700 and modern times (bay filling), are attributed to human land use around St. Ann's Bay. The earlier period of increased sedimentation corresponds to the introduction and expansion of native peoples to the north side of the island, who brought with them slash-and-burn agriculture. The later period of increased sedimentation in the bay corresponds to the intensification of agricultural use of the area by the Spanish and British. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Re-testing the JET-X Flight Module No. 2 at the PANTER facility

The Joint European X-ray Telescope (JET-X) was the core instrument of the Russian Spectrum-X- γ space observatory. It consisted of two identical soft X-ray (0.3–10 keV) telescopes with focusing optical modules having a measured angular resolution of nearly 15 arcsec. Soon after the payload completion, the mission was cancelled and the two optical flight modules (FM) were brought to the Brera Astronomical Observatory where they had been manufactured. After 16 years of storage, we have utilized the JET-X FM2 to test at the PANTER X-ray facility a prototype of a novel X-ray polarimetric telescope, using a Gas Pixel Detector (GPD) with polarimetric capabilities in the focal plane of the FM2. The GPD was developed by a collaboration between INFN-Pisa and INAF-IAPS. In the first phase of the test campaign, we have re-tested the FM2 at PANTER to have an up-to-date characterization in terms of angular resolution and effective area, while in the second part of the test the GPD has been placed in the focal plane of the FM2. In this paper we report the results of the tests of the sole FM2, using an unpolarized X-ray source, comparing the results with the calibration done in 1996.     

Evidence of individual solar proton events in Antarctic snow

The high-resolution nitrate analyses of a snow sequence in Antarctica reveals clear evidence that the snow contains a chemical record of ionization from charged particles incident upon the upper atmosphere of the Earth. The Antarctic continent acts as a cold trap that effectively freezes out this signal and retains it in the stratigraphy of the ice shelves and the continental ice sheet. The signal that we measure results from the ionization of nitrogen and oxygen, the two primary constituents of the Earth's atmosphere, which subsequently react to form oxides of nitrogen. A large portion of the nitrogen oxides produced are ultimately oxidized to nitric acid and incorporated in snow crystals together with nitrates from tropospheric sources that also contribute to the general background. The nitrate concentration in a firn core was measured in Antarctica by ultraviolet spectrophotometry under tightly controlled experimental procedures. Based on uninterrupted, high-resolution sampling, variations in nitrate concentration were found to average about 53% (one standard deviation) of the mean concentration for the entire core. Short pulses of high nitrate concentration were found to show a variance of up to 11 standard deviations above the mean. At the series mean, the precision of analysis is better than 2%.The firn core was drilled by hand to a depth of 21.7 m corresponding to 62 years and including more than 5 solar cycles. The time series that resulted from a total of 1393 individual analyses shows a statistically significant modulation of the background signal that is clearly tracable to solar activity. Several anomalously large concentration peaks were observed that have been dated and found to correlate with the major solar proton events of August 1972, July 1946, and the white-light flare of July 1928.     

A comparison of logistic regression-based models of susceptibility to landslides in western Colorado,USA

The Paonia-McClure Pass area of Colorado has been recognized as a region highly susceptible to mass movement. Because of the dynamic nature of this landscape, accurate methods are needed to predict susceptibility to movement of these slopes. The area was evaluated by coupling a geographic information system (GIS) with logistic regression methods to assess susceptibility to landslides. We mapped 735 shallow landslides in the area. Seventeen factors, as predictor variables of landslides, were mapped from aerial photographs, available public data archives, ETM + satellite data, published literature, and frequent field surveys. A logistic regression model was run using landslides as the dependent factor and landslide-causing factors as independent factors (covariates). Landslide data were sampled from the landslide masses, landslide scarps, center of mass of the landslides, and center of scarp of the landslides, and an equal amount of data were collected from areas void of discernible mass movement. Models of susceptibility to landslides for each sampling technique were developed first. Second, landslides were classified as debris flows, debris slides, rock slides, and soil slides and then models of susceptibility to landslides were created for each type of landslide. The prediction accuracies of each model were compared using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve technique. The model, using samples from landslide scarps, has the highest prediction accuracy (85 %), and the model, using samples from landslide mass centers, has the lowest prediction accuracy (83 %) among the models developed from the four techniques of data sampling. Likewise, the model developed for debris slides has the highest prediction accuracy (92 %), and the model developed for soil slides has the lowest prediction accuracy (83 %) among the four types of landslides. Furthermore, prediction from a model developed by combining the four models of the four types of landslides (86 %) is better than the prediction from a model developed by using all landslides together (85 %).     

Enhancement and mensuration of space imagery to document environmental change: Omo Delta,Africa

This paper presents results from applying a hierarchical segmentation algorithm to two agricultural data sets characterised by small fields. Several new techniques were developed over the course of this project. These include a new supervised classification technique for identifying segments and the inclusion of other information derived from the segmentation process. In addition, a technique for including cartographic information to help structure the segmentation is also described. The results indicate that significant improvement in classification accuracy can be achieved.

A number of problems which arise when working with segmentation data are also reported and discussed. These problems appear to be different enough from those encountered in pixel classifications to be worth describing in greater detail. The paper concludes with the lines of research being pursued to circumvent these problems and to further increase the fidelity of the segmentation results.