Atmospheric control of the cooling rate of impact melts and cryolavas on Titan’s surface

As on Earth, Titan’s atmosphere plays a major role in the cooling of heated surfaces. We have assessed the mechanisms by which Titan’s atmosphere, dominantly N₂ at a surface pressure of 1.5 × 10⁵ Pa, cools a warm or heated surface. These heated areas can be caused by impacts generating melt sheets and (possibly) by endogenic processes emplacing cryolavas (a low-temperature liquid that freezes on the surface). We find that for a cooling cryolava flow, lava lake, or impact melt body, heat loss is mainly driven by atmospheric convection. Radiative heat loss, a dominant heat loss mechanism with terrestrial silicate lava flows, plays only a minor role on Titan. Long-term cooling and solidification are dependent on melt sheet or flow thickness, and also local climate, because persistent winds will speed cooling. Relatively rapid cooling caused by winds reduces the detectability of these thermal events by instruments measuring surface thermal emission. Because surface temperature drops by ≈50% within ≈1 day of emplacement, fresh flows or impact melt may be difficult to detect via thermal emission unless an active eruption is directly observed. Cooling of flow or impact melt surfaces are orders of magnitude faster on Titan than on airless moons (e.g., Enceladus or Europa).Although upper surfaces cool fast, the internal cooling and solidification process is relatively slow. Cryolava flow lengths are, therefore, more likely to be volume (effusion) limited, rather than cooling-limited. More detailed modeling awaits constraints on the thermophysical properties of the likely cryomagmas and surface materials.     

Deriving the coronal hole electron temperature: electron density dependent ionization / recombination considerations

Comparison of appropriate theoretically derived line ratios with observational data can yield estimates of a plasma’s physical parameters,such as electron density or temperature.The usual practice in the calculation of the line ratio is the assumption of excitation by electrons/protons followed by radiative decay.Furthermore,it is normal to use the so-called coronal approximation,i.e.one only considers ionization and recombination to and from the ground-state.A more accurate treatment is to include ionizati...     

ΛCDM predictions for galaxy protoclusters – I. The relation between galaxies, protoclusters and quasars at z∼ 6

Motivated by recent observational studies of the environment of   z ∼ 6  QSOs, we have used the Millennium Run (MR) simulations to construct a very large  (∼4°× 4°)  mock redshift survey of star-forming galaxies at   z ∼ 6  . We use this simulated survey to study the relation between density enhancements in the distribution of i ₇₇₅-dropouts and Lyα emitters, and their relation to the most massive haloes and protocluster regions at   z ∼ 6  . Our simulation predicts significant variations in surface density across the sky with some voids and filaments extending over scales of 1°, much larger than probed by current surveys. Approximately one-third of all   z ∼ 6  haloes hosting i -dropouts brighter than   z = 26.5  mag  (≈ M *_{UV, z =6})  become part of   z = 0  galaxy clusters. i -dropouts associated with protocluster regions are found in regions where the surface density is enhanced on scales ranging from a few to several tens of arcminutes on the sky. We analyse two structures of i -dropouts and Lyα emitters observed with the Subaru Telescope and show that these structures must be the seeds of massive clusters in formation. In striking contrast, six   z ∼ 6  QSO fields observed with Hubble Space Telescope show no significant enhancements in their i ₇₇₅-dropout number counts. With the present data, we cannot rule out the QSOs being hosted by the most massive haloes. However, neither can we confirm this widely used assumption. We conclude by giving detailed recommendations for the interpretation and planning of observations by current and future ground- and space-based instruments that will shed new light on questions related to the large-scale structure at   z ∼ 6  .     

Changes in North Sea macrofauna communities and species distribution between 1986 and 2000

The North Sea Benthos Project 2000 was initiated as a follow-up to the 1986 ICES North Sea Benthos Survey with the major aim to identify changes in the macrofauna species distribution and community structure in the North Sea and their likely causes.The results showed that the large-scale spatial distribution of macrofauna communities in the North Sea hardly changed between 1986 and 2000, with the main divisions at the 50 m and 100 m depth contours. Water temperature and salinity as well as wave exposure, tidal stress and primary production were influential environmental factors on a large (North Sea-wide) spatial scale.The increase in abundance and regional changes in distribution of various species with a southern distribution in the North Sea in 2000 were largely associated with an increase in sea surface temperature, primary production and, thus, food supply. This can be most likely related to the North Sea hydro-climate change in the late 1980s influenced by the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Only one cold-temperate species decreased in abundance in 2000 at most of the stations. Indications for newly established populations of offshore non-native species were not found.Differences in macrofauna community structure on localised spatial scales were predominantly found north of the 50 m depth contour off the British coast along the Flamborough Head Front towards the Dogger Bank, off the coast of Jutland and at the Frisian Front. These changes were most likely attributed to stronger frontal systems in 2000 caused by the increased inflow of Atlantic water masses in relation to the hydro-climate change in the late 1980s.     

Error propagation in cartographic modelling using Boolean logic and continuous classification

Abstract

When data on environmental attributes such as those of soil or groundwater are manipulated by logical cartographic modelling, the results are usually assumed to be exact. However, in reality the results will be in error because the values of input attributes cannot be determined exactly. This paper analyses how errors in such values propagate through Boolean and continuous modelling, involving the intersection of several maps. The error analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo methods on data interpolated by block kriging to a regular grid which yields predictions and prediction error standard deviations of attribute values for each pixel. The theory is illustrated by a case study concerning the selection of areas of medium textured, non-saline soil at an experimental farm in Alberta, Canada. The results suggest that Boolean methods of sieve mapping are much more prone to error propagation than the more robust continuous equivalents. More study of the effects of errors and of the choice of attribute classes and of class parameters on error propagation is recommended.     

Propagation of positional error in 3D GIS: estimation of the solar irradiation of building roofs

While error propagation in GIS is a topic that has received a lot of attention, it has not been researched with 3D GIS data. We extend error propagation to 3D city models using a Monte Carlo simulation on a use case of annual solar irradiation estimation of building rooftops for assessing the efficiency of installing solar panels. Besides investigating the extension of the theory of error propagation in GIS from 2D to 3D, this paper presents the following contributions. We (1) introduce varying XY/Z accuracy levels of the geometry to reflect actual acquisition outcomes; (2) run experiments on multiple accuracy classes (121 in total); (3) implement an uncertainty engine for simulating acquisition positional errors to procedurally modelled (synthetic) buildings; (4) perform the uncertainty propagation analysis on multiple levels of detail (LODs); and (5) implement Solar3Dcity – a CityGML-compliant software for estimating the solar irradiation of roofs, which we use in our experiments. The results show that in the case of the city of Delft in the Netherlands, a 0.3/0.6 m positional uncertainty yields an error of 68 kWh/m²/year (10%) in solar irradiation estimation. Furthermore, the results indicate that the planar and vertical uncertainties have a different influence on the estimations, and that the results are comparable between LODs. In the experiments we use procedural models, implying that analyses are carried out in a controlled environment where results can be validated. Our uncertainty propagation method and the framework are applicable to other 3D GIS operations and/or use cases. We released Solar3Dcity as open-source software to support related research efforts in the future.     

The heartbeat of the volcano: The discovery of episodic activity at Prometheus on Io

The temporal signature of thermal emission from a volcano is a valuable clue to the processes taking place both at and beneath the surface. The Galileo Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) observed the volcano Prometheus, on the jovian moon Io, on multiple occasions between 1996 and 2002. The 5 micron (μm) brightness of this volcano shows considerable variation from orbit to orbit. Prometheus exhibits increases in thermal emission that indicate episodic (though non-periodic) effusive activity in a manner akin to the current Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha (afterwards referred to as the Pu'u 'O'o) eruption of Kilauea, Hawai'i. The volume of material erupted during one Prometheus eruption episode (defined as the interval from minimum thermal emission to peak and back to minimum) from 6 November 1996 to 7 May 1997 is estimated to be ∼0.8 km³, with a peak instantaneous volumetric flux (effusion rate) of ∼140 m³ s⁻¹, and an averaged volumetric flux (eruption rate) of ∼49 m³ s⁻¹. These quantities are used to model subsurface structure, magma storage and magma supply mechanisms, and likely magma chamber depth. Prometheus appears to be supplied by magma from a relatively shallow magma chamber, with a roof at a minimum depth of ∼2-3 km and a maximum depth of ∼14 km. This is a much shallower depth range than sources of supply proposed for explosive, possibly ultramafic, eruptions at Pillan and Tvashtar. As Prometheus-type effusive activity is widespread on Io, shallow magma chambers containing magma of basaltic or near-basaltic composition and density may be common. This analysis strengthens the analogy between Prometheus and Pu'u 'O'o, at least in terms of eruption style. Even though the style of eruption appears to be similar (effusive emplacement of thin, insulated, compound pahoehoe flows) the scale of activity at Prometheus greatly exceeds current activity at Pu'u 'O'o in terms of volume erupted, area covered, and magma flux. Whereas the estimated magma chamber at Prometheus dwarfs the Pu'u 'O'o magma chamber, it fits within expectations if the Pu'u 'O'o chamber were scaled for the greater volumetric flux and lower gravity of Io. Recent volumetric eruption rates derived from Galileo data for Prometheus were considerably smaller than the rate that produced the extensive flows formed in the ∼17 years between the Voyager and Galileo missions. These smaller eruption rates, coupled with the fact that flows are not expanding laterally, may mean that the immediate heat source that generates the Prometheus plume is simultaneously running out of available volatiles and the thermal energy that drives mobilization of volatiles. This raises the question of whether the current Prometheus eruption is in its last throes.     

Chemical evolution models of local dwarf spheroidal galaxies

We calculate chemical evolution models for four dwarf spheroidal (dSph) satellites of the Milky Way (Carina, Ursa Minor, Leo I and Leo II) for which reliable non-parametric star formation histories have been derived. In this way, the independently-obtained star formation histories are used to constrain the evolution of the systems we are treating. This allows us to obtain robust inferences on the history of such crucial parameters of galactic evolution as gas infall, gas outflows and global metallicities for these systems. We can then trace the metallicity and abundance ratios of the stars formed, the gas present at any time within the systems and the details of gas ejection, of relevance to enrichment of the galaxies environment. We find that galaxies showing one single burst of star formation (Ursa Minor and Leo II) require a dark halo slightly larger that the current estimates for their tidal radii, or the presence of a metal-rich selective wind that might carry away much of the energy output of their supernovae before this might have interacted and heated the gas content, for the gas to be retained until the observed stellar populations have formed. Systems showing extended star formation histories (Carina and Leo I), however, are consistent with the idea that their tidally-limited dark haloes provide the necessary gravitational potential wells to retain their gas. The complex time structure of the star formation in these systems remains difficult to understand. Observations of detailed abundance ratios for Ursa Minor strongly suggest that the star formation history of this galaxy might in fact resemble the complex picture presented by Carina or Leo I, but localized at a very early epoch.